Maybe the best thing that could happen

[SANJAY]

They could have an 8-team playoff, 6 conference champs and 2 wild cards.  Which would really be a 12 team playoff, because of the conference championship games.

These same teams/conferences do not want a playoff now.  Why would they want one if they split from the NCAA?

$800 Million rea$ons! that's the guesstimate of a true 16 teams playoff system.

by my count that is $50M per participant so $ 25M to the school and $25M to the conference.

can the BCS bowls match that revenue?

what if a conference gets 2 or 3 teams in?

If the pinheads that run the conferences/schools made business decisions not POWER decisions we would have had a playoff already.

They could do it now if they wanted to was my point.  The same"pinheads" run the schools/conferences now.

[Doc]

The issue has never been how to arrange a fair playoff system or how to generate more overall money.  The BCS conferences just want to keep the bulk of the payout amongst themselves.  Giving automatic bids to all conferences (whether it is 7, 8, or the current 11) just splits the money more ways with guaranteed slots to "lesser conferences" and they don't want that.

If they held a 16-team playoff now (11 conf champs + 5 wild cards), the BCS teams, at best, get 11/16 of the pot.  Currently they get all 10/10 BCS spots unless a non-BCS team fulfills a bunch of criteria, and then the BCS still gets 9/10 (last year was a BAD year when they only kept 8/10 shares, but had to vote for Boise St).  Four-super-conferences means 64 (instead of current 66 "BCS") and would be OK by their standards.  When you start talking 72, 96, or 120, their "all-BigBoy" league starts getting diluted with more payouts "outside the family."

[Guest]

The issue has never been how to arrange a fair playoff system or how to generate more overall money. The BCS conferences just want to keep the bulk of the payout amongst themselves. Giving automatic bids to all conferences (whether it is 7, 8, or the current 11) just splits the money more ways with guaranteed slots to "lesser conferences" and they don't want that.

If they held a 16-team playoff now (11 conf champs + 5 wild cards), the BCS teams, at best, get 11/16 of the pot. Currently they get all 10/10 BCS spots unless a non-BCS team fulfills a bunch of criteria, and then the BCS still gets 9/10 (last year was a BAD year when they only kept 8/10 shares, but had to vote for Boise St). Four-super-conferences means 64 (instead of current 66 "BCS") and would be OK by their standards. When you start talking 72, 96, or 120, their "all-BigBoy" league starts getting diluted with more payouts "outside the family."

Wouldn't a playoff system modeled on the basketball tournament ensure the BCS conferences get the largest share? It's a combination of teams in the playoffs and wins, right? BCS conferences would get more teams in AND win most of the time...

So if you figure 16 teams means 30 slots (15 games x 2 slots) ... chances are no more than 4-6 would go to the non BCS AQ conferneces... 6/30 is 20%.  (Remember, there won't be 11 conferences... likely only 8 or 9 total conferences.)

[Danm1983]

I'm still wondering where these ideas that teams like Pittsburgh would accept an invite to the Big 12 come from. I tend to think they would prefer staying associated with an east coast based conference, instead of jumping ship (and having to pay the BE buyout if they go quickly) and associating with a conference that may not be totally stable, even after adding some teams.

The Big 12, if it ends up with 5 teams, wouldn't have the clout to invite Louisville or Cincinnati...unless the Big East got raided...so at the least, the B12 could hold off for a while and hope that the ACC and SEC expand to the point that it weakens the BE, and then they'd have more leverage and stability to offer to teams like UL and UC (but still not Pitt...Pitt would be prime for the ACC to pick from...and both UL and UC aren't really candidates for the ACC. UL is a longshot SEC candidate, but likely not high on the list.

If the Big 12 ends up down to just five teams, the smartest thing they should do first, is to try and perhaps offer BYU, Utah, TCU, Houston, maybe Tulsa, and possibly even Boise State (though not sure if BSU brings enough to the table in sports not named football) invites, and see if they can bolster up to 9 or 10 teams, then hope that the BE gets run enough to call over Louisville and Cincinnati. At that point the conference could look like:

North - Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, Louisville, Cincinnati

South - Utah, BYU, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Tulsa

With this, you'd bring in the Kentucky and southern Indiana and Ohio areas with UL and UC. Tulsa would help keep a presence in Oklahoma, TCU and Houston help support Baylor and have a good Texas presence, esp in Dallas/Ft. Worth and Houston (who have huge TV markets), and Utah and BYU bring that area to the Big 12, and are solid programs.

It would be a stretch, but it would be a very "Big East-like" move, and could pay off well. When the BE brought in USF, UConn, UL, and UC in 2004/2005, three of those schools were proven in basketball, and they were all decent football programs....at the level they were playing. Utah, BYU, and TCU have already proven themselves to be major players in the world of football, among other sports, so the risk would not be as great as it was to the Big East years ago. All three teams would immediately compete, especially since the remaining Big 12 teams weren't the huge powerhouses anyways. It would probably be perceived as a bit of a weaker league for a little while, but bulking back up to 12 teams would keep the hate levels low, and if they got UL and UC, it wouldn't be a shabby hoops league with the Kansas and Missouri schools.

[Who'sYourData?]

Worst case scenario for Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor...

These five schools stick together, collect $70 million in exit fees from Colorado, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, then add TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Louisville and maybe even Arkansas.  The Big 12 still has its contract with the Fiesta Bowl and BCS.

But...The remaining 10 schools will stick together and go huntin' for some more teams to join them.

Under your scenario, the Big 12 would lose the BCS bid.  A league must have six teams for at least five years to keep their BCS bid.  If the Big 12 loses 7 schools, it is done.

[ForestBull]

Worst case scenario for Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor...

These five schools stick together, collect $70 million in exit fees from Colorado, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, then add TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Louisville and maybe even Arkansas.  The Big 12 still has its contract with the Fiesta Bowl and BCS.

But...The remaining 10 schools will stick together and go huntin' for some more teams to join them.

Worst case scenario?

You are very delusional!

[hm101]

big 12 staying at 10 members looks like a real possibility. i kind of hope the big 12 stays at 10. big ten stops with nebraska. pac 10 adds utah (offsetting the addition of BSU). WVU or Pitt have a dominant year and a BCS bowl win over a strong ACC team bringing much much needed national attention and credibility to the conference.

[Who'sYourData?]

This does bring up something interesting, however.  What if the remaining BE football schools unite with the remaining Big 12 schools under the Big 12 banner?  The BCS automatic bid would be gone, but perhaps they could renegotiate to get it back.  And they would keep a bunch of money from the departing schools.  It's a longshot, but it's a shot.

[tampabull]

This does bring up something interesting, however.  What if the remaining BE football schools unite with the remaining Big 12 schools under the Big 12 banner?  The BCS automatic bid would be gone, but perhaps they could renegotiate to get it back.  And they would keep a bunch of money from the departing schools.  It's a longshot, but it's a shot.

I like the idea as long as they can get the AQ back.  I doubt the 5 other schools would share the exit money with the new big east schools though.

[ForestBull]

Worst case scenario for Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor...

These five schools stick together, collect $70 million in exit fees from Colorado, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, then add TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Louisville and maybe even Arkansas.  The Big 12 still has its contract with the Fiesta Bowl and BCS.

But...The remaining 10 schools will stick together and go huntin' for some more teams to join them.

Worst case scenario?

You are very delusional!

Why would I eat crow? I simply stated by you saying that your scenario was worse case was very delusional. Very worse things could have happen like your conference could have lost AQ, Mizzou could have been shipped to an inferior conference. To tell me to eat crow is just stupid I never said what would happen just setting the outliers. So thank you and STFU!!