Apocalypse Comes Early: The 2011 College Football Realignment

[Guest nybullsfan]

The best size for a conference is 9 teams, and play a round-robin schedule

This way you would get:

- 4 home games

- 4 away games

- 4 out-of-conference for regional rivalries, 1-AA, etc.

And there is no doubt who is champion since everyone plays everyone else

[TyBull]

Expanding conferences could look to Clemson

By Bart Wright, Gannett News Service  Monday, February 15, 2010

6 comment(s) | Default | Large

The most persistent and ultimately pointless college football debate in this state may be put on the shelf in the near future as a result of a game of dominoes about to be played out West.

How would Clemson University’s football fortunes change if it were a member of the Southeastern rather than the Atlantic Coast Conference? Would it upset the balance in the state rivalry with South Carolina, whose fans say their team plays in the more difficult conference and that those battle wounds take a toll when it comes time for the in-state game?

This is getting a little ahead of the game, granted, but it isn’t too far-fetched to see the possibility that schools like Clemson, Miami or Florida State may be invited into the SEC if that conference has to re-stock itself following expansion of the Pacific-10 and Big Ten conferences now being discussed.

Last week, new Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott announced, “We’re looking at (expansion) very seriously,†which came about two months after Big Ten (that’s the conference with 11 schools and don’t ask, it makes sense to them) said it was exploring the possibility of adding a 12th school.

Twelve is the magic number because it takes that many teams, according the NCAA regulations, to stage a conference football championship game, where the big money is located. The Big Ten has coveted Notre Dame for decades, but failing to lure the Irish, it would have a willing addition in Missouri, whose officials have complained about the Big 12 Conference’s revenue distribution and said they would be receptive to an overture from the Big Ten.

The Pac-10 needs to add two schools, the most likely frontrunners being Colorado and Utah, representative of the Denver and Salt Lake City television markets. Colorado has been mentioned as an interested mover to the Pac-10 for 20 years because of its recruiting ties to the West Coast.

In the late 1980s, there were rumors of Pac-10 interests in adding Texas and Colorado to form a super conference that would virtually lock down the western half of the United States with the No. 5 television market in Dallas-Ft. Worth and the No. 16 market in Denver.

But until Scott came in, the Pac-10 was welded to its past associations and smaller television contracts. Those days are gone and the question is what college football might look like after expansion.

Let’s be conservative and leave Texas out of it. If the Pac-10 took Colorado and Utah (from the Mountain West Conference), and the Big Ten added Missouri, the Big 12 would need two more schools to get back to 12.

The first school in line would be Arkansas, which bolted the old Southwest Conference for the SEC in 1990 after a wave of recruiting scandals and declining finances in the SWC. Had it known what the Big 12 would become, it would have almost certainly stayed and is a much better fit for that conference. Arkansas likes the SEC money but would be interested in a prominent membership in a re-designed Big 12.

In the game of conference dominoes, where would the SEC go for a replacement? Clemson, perhaps, the school people say has all the trappings of an SEC school in the ACC?

It would seem to be a neat fit. The football stadium is SEC sized, the small-town atmosphere links well with places like Tuscaloosa, Ala., Starkville., Miss., and others in the SEC, but would the SEC want Clemson?

If you were sitting in the SEC commissioner’s chair and needed to add a school to your conferences, you could have your choice in the Southeast. The money flowing into the SEC is the standard bearer nationally, so whoever gets invited in can pay off those bills in a hurry.

Never mind the level of competition, this is an issue about money, as is virtually every major issue in big time college athletics.

The SEC might consider Miami and the No. 17 television market in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, it would surely think about Florida State, which would bring the No. 14 TV market in Tampa-St. Petersburg, and it would naturally consider Clemson.

Miami is a big market, and combined with the reach the University of Florida has in the state, the SEC would own the viewers of that Sunshine State. Florida State is well suited, but might be seen as adding to what the SEC already has while Miami would be more representative of a new market.

Clemson has the No. 36 television market in Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, but might be viewed as the most logical expansion while enhancing an already attractive rivalry with SEC neighbor South Carolina.

When the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the ripple effect shook up conference alignments throughout the East. When the Pac-10 and Big Ten expand, the waves will be felt from end of the country to the other.

n Bart Wright can be reached at 864-298-4239.

http://thetandd.com/articles/2010/02/15/sports/doc4b78ceca06b41929083059.txt

[Danm1983]

How does adding FSU lock the Tampa-St. Pete market? LOL

I'm seeing some common themes here though.

1. Big 10 takes Missouri.

2. Big 12 lures Arkansas back, send OK State to North Division.

3. SEC brings Vandy to SEC West (they're farther west than KY or TN), invites Clemson in.

Once it gets to the ACC, the options get deeper. In a crazy trade scenario, Pitt and West Virginia could go over for bringing BC back to the BE. Otherwise, your list of candidates could range from:  Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, USF, luring Navy to join, or graduating a lower tier team like UCF, ECU, or Marshall.

Marshall and UCF might make OK fits in the ACC, but ECU would be the 5th North Carolina school, and it's pretty saturated up there.

Regardless, you'll see the Big East needing to make moves, and whether it goes for UCF, ECU, Memphis, S. Miss, TCU, or Houston, Conference USA is going to end up being the next to do the scramble.

C-USA has a legit shot at LA Tech, which is an awkwardly placed WAC team that plays well and should be good enough to compete in C-USA. They might also reach over and grab New Mexico (WAC) and NM State (MWC) to expand their Western division, and those are in close proximity to UTEP as is. If TCU was still on the board, I doubt they'd make a lateral move to a perceived weaker C-USA (esp if ECU/UCF/Houston were moved on).

The Pac 12 really could benefit from UNLV and Nevada. They fit the pairing and the Vegas market isn't bad. BYU and Utah would have to come as a pair, and the BYU-religious thing another article pointed out may not work. Boise State-Idaho just don't fit the bill for the Pac conference just yet. TX and Colorado won't budge off of B12 money and they're halfway across the nation = FAIL.

Adding a small team like HI, Fresno, SD St, SJ State probably won't cut it. They might be able to swing Utah and Utah State, but Utah State is small time, and just came to D-1 less than a decade ago.

The WAC and the MWC each have 9 teams. 18 total. If the two NM schools and LA Tech part ways for C-USA, and you see two schools invited to the Pac 12, they'd be down to 13 schools, and those 2 conferences could merge. It would actually BENEFIT this combined conference to still have Boise State, Utah, BYU and TCU together, as they could make a better case for the 7th auto-BCS bid. Having Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State, Fresno State would also help the middle of the pack, and Idaho, Utah State, San Jose St, San Diego State, and Hawai'i wouldn't hurt since those teams do have flashes of success from time to time.

Then you have the MAC, which has 13 teams and could stay the course, or perhaps add Army to go to 14, since that's a natural fit.

The SunBelt has 9 teams right now, and South Alabama entering the fold in 2013. If anything, they could bring up Appalachian State and have 11 teams. A 12th team may be trying to lure away a "southern" MAC team like Ball State, or take a chance on Georgia State in a few years.

I'd much prefer to have 10 conferences of 12 teams (and the 2 or 3 independents) than a bunch of 14 team conferences where the chances of winning the conference are 1 out of 14, or about 7%.

At least if they could shuffle around and cap at 12 teams, you'd have 10 conferences who could get auto-bids into a 16 team playoff, and then have 6 at-large spots for the other "good" teams. It would work.

[Danm1983]

The best size for a conference is 9 teams, and play a round-robin schedule

This way you would get:

- 4 home games

- 4 away games

- 4 out-of-conference for regional rivalries, 1-AA, etc.

And there is no doubt who is champion since everyone plays everyone else

It is the best way, and for conferences like the ACC or Big 12, who have teams who have shuffled in and out, it would work (could restore Old Big 8 as the Big 9 and bring back the SW conference), but the riots and uproar in the SEC and Big 10 would be enormous; they'd not know who to kick out.

SEC could lose Arkansas back to SW Conference rivals, and South Carolina hasn't been around long enough to matter much, and then do they dump Vanderbilt for basically sucking at football (since they still do well in baseball and basketball)? or do they try to pawn off someone to another decent conference forming?

The Big 10 could easily drop Penn State, since they're newer, but the other 10 teams are pretty original. You'd be looking at kicking out someone like Iowa (geographically), or Northwestern or Purdue (smaller schools in states that already have a "state" school). Would be nuts.

[Guest nybullsfan]

The best size for a conference is 9 teams, and play a round-robin schedule

This way you would get:

- 4 home games

- 4 away games

- 4 out-of-conference for regional rivalries, 1-AA, etc.

And there is no doubt who is champion since everyone plays everyone else

It is the best way, and for conferences like the ACC or Big 12, who have teams who have shuffled in and out, it would work (could restore Old Big 8 as the Big 9 and bring back the SW conference), but the riots and uproar in the SEC and Big 10 would be enormous; they'd not know who to kick out.

SEC could lose Arkansas back to SW Conference rivals, and South Carolina hasn't been around long enough to matter much, and then do they dump Vanderbilt for basically sucking at football (since they still do well in baseball and basketball)? or do they try to pawn off someone to another decent conference forming?

The Big 10 could easily drop Penn State, since they're newer, but the other 10 teams are pretty original. You'd be looking at kicking out someone like Iowa (geographically), or Northwestern or Purdue (smaller schools in states that already have a "state" school). Would be nuts.

Haha. Never said it was practical, just that it makes sense. God knows nothing else in CFB makes sense, so why should conference size?? LOL

[Cow Pie]

I have been busy with classes, which is why I did not post this sooner, but heard on ESPN Radio about a week ago that the Big10 has been meeting with Rutgers and Syracuse ever since the end of the football season. As stated in the article this would give the Big10 the NY tv market by default.

In addition the Pac10 and the Big12 are both reportedly secretly talking with schools as well. According to ESPN radio the PAC10 has been talking with BYU, ULV, and Utah... and the Big12 has been talking with TCU, Boise State, and Houston.

ESPN also long ago confirmed that Texas, Mizzou, Nebraska, and Oklahoma are not going anywhere and are instead looking to expand to a 14 team mega conference as well.

I have not heard anything about the SEC stealing FSU and Clemson from the ACC but I have no doubt that this will occur once the hammer falls on the Big East and out in the West.

Keep in mind if this occurs then there is no doubt in my mind that the Big East would cease to exist as a BCS football conference. It may become a lower tier league much like the Southern Conference did after it was raided by the new SEC.

The real question is not about the Raid's and the 2010 like realignment of the College Football Universe but when it will happen and where USF will end up when the dust settles.

I believe that we will end up in the ACC along with WV, LV, and Pitt as long as the SEC raids the ACC... however if the SEC and the ACC sit out this massive realignment and the Big10 raids the Big East and takes 2-4 teams then I don't see the Big East being able to fill the void and we could end up as Independents or back in a lower tier league.

The Big East needs to expand to 10 teams and head off this raid now... but as I have been saying all along the Big East suffers from a massive ego regarding its basketball schools and thinks that it has power in a football world.

[CowbellBandit]

I have been busy with classes, which is why I did not post this sooner, but heard on ESPN Radio about a week ago that the Big10 has been meeting with Rutgers and Syracuse ever since the end of the football season. As stated in the article this would give the Big10 the NY tv market by default.

In addition the Pac10 and the Big12 are both reportedly secretly talking with schools as well. According to ESPN radio the PAC10 has been talking with BYU, ULV, and Utah... and the Big12 has been talking with TCU, Boise State, and Houston.

ESPN also long ago confirmed that Texas, Mizzou, Nebraska, and Oklahoma are not going anywhere and are instead looking to expand to a 14 team mega conference as well.

I have not heard anything about the SEC stealing FSU and Clemson from the ACC but I have no doubt that this will occur once the hammer falls on the Big East and out in the West.

Keep in mind if this occurs then there is no doubt in my mind that the Big East would cease to exist as a BCS football conference. It may become a lower tier league much like the Southern Conference did after it was raided by the new SEC.

The real question is not about the Raid's and the 2010 like realignment of the College Football Universe but when it will happen and where USF will end up when the dust settles.

I believe that we will end up in the ACC along with WV, LV, and Pitt as long as the SEC raids the ACC... however if the SEC and the ACC sit out this massive realignment and the Big10 raids the Big East and takes 2-4 teams then I don't see the Big East being able to fill the void and we could end up as Independents or back in a lower tier league.

The Big East needs to expand to 10 teams and head off this raid now... but as I have been saying all along the Big East suffers from a massive ego regarding its basketball schools and thinks that it has power in a football world.

Well, what do you see happening if the Big 10 only takes 1 team (like Rutgers)? If you've already addressed this, pls feel free to paste a link, I'm in a time crunch and can't read the whole thread. Sorry!