Will BCS invite Pitt/Cinci loser over VT?

[8u11`o3]

As far as I can tell, the best reasonable chance the BE has for getting 2 teams in the BCS is if:

Nebraska loses to Texas

Boise St loses to Nevada

OK St loses to Oklahoma

Miami loses to USF

That should leave the final top 14 something like this:

  1 Florida/Alabama winner 13-0 Auto

  2 Texas 13-0 Auto

  3 Cincinnati 12-0 Auto

  4 TCU 12-0 Auto

  5 Florida/Alabama loser 12-1 At-large

  6 Georgia Tech 12-1 Auto

  7 Oregon 10-2 Auto

  8 Ohio State 10-2 Auto

  9 Iowa 10-2 Ineligible

10 Penn State 10-2 At-large

11 Pittsburgh 10-2 ?

12 Brigham Young/Utah winner 10-2 Passed Over

13 Virginia Tech 9-3 ?

14 LSU 9-3 Ineligible

This could change trivially if GT, Oregon, or Cinci lose in the final week, but their auto bid would just go to the teams that beat them.

So the question is: will BCS take a 2 loss Pitt(or 1 loss Cinci) over a 3 loss VT?  Which bowl has the last selection this year?

[Cow Pie]

If the loser is Cincy then yes... otherwise it would depend on what teams Pitt lost too vs. what teams VT lost too.

[smazza]

I WOULD BE STUNNED if big east has 2teams

conference is so weak that it really isnt deserving

[Bulls 8_va]

I think the key here is Boise St. Losing...cause they are the one throwing the wrench in the spokes.

GO BULLS!!!

[Guest]

If the loser is Cincy then yes... otherwise it would depend on what teams Pitt lost too vs. what teams VT lost too.

A Pitt loss would drop the Panthers out of the Top 14, not just from 9 to 11... and that would make them ineligible.  So you're really talking about whether VT or Cincy would be selected by the Sugar Bowl (which get's the last selection).  I can't see them putting Cincinnati against the Florida/Bama loser...

Also, the losses you describe could put USC back in the mix as they would move up with so many ahead of them losing... and that could bump TCU or Penn State/Iowa down (Fiesta would take USF in a heartbeat).

[8u11`o3]

A Pitt loss would drop the Panthers out of the Top 14, not just from 9 to 11...

Maybe, but I'm not convinced of this.  They'd be losing to a #4 or #5 team and remember that OK St and Miami would also be losing behind them.  Also, they'd be dropping from #8 at the time(with Boise's loss already having occured) or #7(if GT also lost to GA).

Also, the losses you describe could put USC back in the mix as they would move up with so many ahead of them losing... and that could bump TCU or Penn State/Iowa down (Fiesta would take USC in a heartbeat).

Also, maybe, but I think BYU would hold USC out of the top 14 with a win over Utah.

[8u11`o3]

I WOULD BE STUNNED if big east has 2teams

conference is so weak that it really isnt deserving

I can not deny that it would be stunning, but it seems somewhat feasible, no?

[Guest]

A Pitt loss would drop the Panthers out of the Top 14, not just from 9 to 11...

Maybe, but I'm not convinced of this.  They'd be losing to a #4 or #5 team and remember that OK St and Miami would also be losing behind them.

Also, the losses you describe could put USC back in the mix as they would move up with so many ahead of them losing... and that could bump TCU or Penn State/Iowa down (Fiesta would take USC in a heartbeat).

Also, maybe, but I think BYU would hold USC out of the top 14 with a win over Utah.

Okay, granted I could see both points.

So all that being said, I can't see a BCS Bowl taking Pitt or Cincy at large over VT.  Va Tech fans travel well, and they would be a more recognizable match up.

(Sugar Bowl gets the last selection).

Given the scenario you describe, I would guess:

BCS = UF/Bama winner vs Texas

Sugar (replacing UF/Bama winner) selects UF/Bama loser

Fiesta (replacing Texas) selects Penn State/Iowa

Orange gets Georgia Tech/Clemson winner and selects TCU because of the #3/#4 ranking.

Fiesta selects Va Tech - they took Pitt a couple of years ago, and the Panthers didn't travel at all.

Sugar gets stuck with Cincy/Pitt winner.

[8u11`o3]

I think the key here is Boise St. Losing...cause they are the one throwing the wrench in the spokes.

GO BULLS!!!

All four losses mentioned above are key.  If those teams don't lose, they will surely get the bid over the BE team(UM would be debatable as is VT).

[8u11`o3]

So all that being said, I can't see a BCS Bowl taking Pitt or Cincy at large over VT.  Va Tech fans travel well, and they would be a more recognizable match up.

Okay.  What if VT also loses to Virginia and USC loses to UCLA/AZ?  Would Pitt or Cincy be an at large lock over Cal?