UM football to face more Bulls, less Gators in scheduling future

[SANJAY]

After next year's game in Miami (if Bulls make it a sellout), the economics of the series may be compelling enough that UM will want to continue the series. 

This would be a big help.

And USF winning helps make their argument null.

While I always admire E.T.'s stubborn support of his alma mater, he believes in the "emotional" impact, as if a USF win will somehow cause the Miami administration and fans to swoon and schedule USF annually for the next decade.

As for me, I'm sticking to the facts and the numbers.  I know UM, I know the sports industry (it's my job), and the game will not be played annually.  It has nothing to do with scheduling USF, it has everything to do with scheduling nationally.

Well your roster consists of 80% Florida kids so I don't know what scheduling nationally has to do with it and if you keep losing out on recruits to USF you many need to play us in hope that you can pull off a win once and a while.  :stirpot :clubs

The "national" issue for the Canes is a byproduct of their prior independent period as well as being in a pro-sports town and also having a relatively small alumni base.  When they were independents, games against Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma etc. helped sell tickets in a professional sports town in a way that more regional programs would not.  Also, Miami loses less revenue by foregoing a home game than do some other schools because of their relatively small ticket base.  Not a criticism, but they are a small private school and those are the realities.

I would be happy playing Miami twice every 6 or 8 years, just like I would Florida State.  Once we get past this series I hope to see some more out-of-state programs on our schedule too.

[Hurricane Mutiny]

...

How do they decide what are bigger games? By seats sold ? How much more ?

Go BULLS !!!

Well, E.T., I didn't expect you to have a question on this one, but here it is.  "Bigger games", from a rent/cost standpoint, are determined by ticket sales.  The more tickets that are sold, the more that JRS charges us for staffing, including clean-up.

...

Makes sense, didn't think the attendance jumped that much.

Our contract with RayJay is the same for the season as we are renting the entire stadium.

E.T., both season-ticket sales and single game sales fluctuate wildly at Miami.  Yes, we have a "hardcore" number, but it shoots up and then returns to the baseline depending on schedule.  One big change came earlier in the decade, when Dee switched our "Hurricane Club level" requirement for most seats to a PER-SEAT contribution.  Another big change came with the move to Joe Robbie.  Even in the 80s and 90s, there was fluctuation due to scheduling (esp. as an independent, some years our home schedule was very weak).

Bottom line, with the rise of ticket resale sites, it puts tremendous pressure on the sale of season tickets.  That is our biggest challenge right now.  If we just wanted to sell single-game tickets, we could load up with FIU and FAU.

[Hurricane Mutiny]

After next year's game in Miami (if Bulls make it a sellout), the economics of the series may be compelling enough that UM will want to continue the series. 

This would be a big help.

And USF winning helps make their argument null.

While I always admire E.T.'s stubborn support of his alma mater, he believes in the "emotional" impact, as if a USF win will somehow cause the Miami administration and fans to swoon and schedule USF annually for the next decade.

As for me, I'm sticking to the facts and the numbers.  I know UM, I know the sports industry (it's my job), and the game will not be played annually.  It has nothing to do with scheduling USF, it has everything to do with scheduling nationally.

Well your roster consists of 80% Florida kids so I don't know what scheduling nationally has to do with it and if you keep losing out on recruits to USF you many need to play us in hope that you can pull off a win once and a while.  :stirpot :clubs

Well, it's easy to criticize when you only analyze one factor at a time.

The overall success of UM football is not just based upon where our recruits come from.  Yes, recruiting South Florida is paramount, but Miami has historically pulled key recruits when we targeted guys who were interested in going out-of-state.  If you ever saw our Chicago Hurricane Club events (and the list of past players with Chicago connections), you would get a sense of how we continue to use certain regions for not only recruiting, but alum fundraising as well.

Also, look at our history on QBs.  The state of Florida has not really been a hotbed for pro-style QBs.

More importantly, what Miami did in the 80s and 90s was to capitalize on a national schedule and national prominence.  Miami was one of the top 5 colleges for merchandise sales in the 80s and 90s, which is impressive when you realize how small our student body is.  Miami was able to sell a lot of tickets in opposing stadiums (largely due to hate, I admit), which is a good factor for convincing opposing schools to schedule us, even if they don't like us.  And Miami has always been a good draw on TV, which also convinces opposing schools to play us, because they know that their home game will probably net them a nice OOC TV deal.

Over half of Miami's students do not come from SoFla.  Most of our alums live in places other than SoFla.  That may not be the case for other schools in Florida, but it is for us.  We are a national program, we need to be a national program.

If all we cared about was recruiting SoFla and selling out our stadium, we would simply schedule FAU, FIU, UCF, and USF every year.  We cannot afford to be a regional program.

Oh, and this year's OOC schedule was FAMU, UCF, USF, and Oklahoma.  Good lord, Paul Dee was a horrible Athletic Director.

[Hurricane Mutiny]

After next year's game in Miami (if Bulls make it a sellout), the economics of the series may be compelling enough that UM will want to continue the series. 

This would be a big help.

And USF winning helps make their argument null.

While I always admire E.T.'s stubborn support of his alma mater, he believes in the "emotional" impact, as if a USF win will somehow cause the Miami administration and fans to swoon and schedule USF annually for the next decade.

As for me, I'm sticking to the facts and the numbers.  I know UM, I know the sports industry (it's my job), and the game will not be played annually.  It has nothing to do with scheduling USF, it has everything to do with scheduling nationally.

...

The thinking is this: Why add a difficult late-season matchup every year (three of the five will be in Tampa) against a school that is formidable? What if UM goes through a year in national championship contention but has its chances ruined by a nonconference school it doesn't need to play? (Remember, FSU lost at home to USF this season.) And why not schedule seven home games annually instead?

...

But it seems UM's reasons(according to the article) of not playing USF are very similar to UF's reason not to play UM.

8-)

E.T., you do realize the difference between, say, Barry Jackson's OPINION and the University of Miami's actual thought process.  You're quoting Barry Jackson, not Kirby Hocutt.

I've explained this to you before, E.T.  Right now, we have 3 ACC teams playing OOC (SEC) rivals during this slot each year:  FSU plays UF, GaTech plays UGa, and Clemson plays SC.  With 9 ACC teams remaining, someone has to play OOC, or else convince one of the three rivalry games to move.  The ACC would prefer to have more drama over the final regular season weekend, which SUCKS this year because GaTech and Clemson have clinched the ACC CG.  Therefore, there are four MEANINGLESS ACC games this weekend.

Now, obviously the two big rivalry games that can survive on Thanksgiving weekend are the Florida and Georgia games.  Big, crazy football crowds, minimal travel requirements, etc.

So, yes, we have some work to do on scheduling.  I have always hated the way that FSU negotiated to be in an opposite division from us, I would have preferred the same division, and then have BC as our "historic rival" game.  If we can get BC and GT to switch divisions, and we can play BC annually, there would be an overwhelming sentiment at UM to move BC to the Thanksgiving slot.  For at least one VERY obvious reason.

Look, E.T., I'm just being honest with you.  I know you have dreams of this game becoming something wonderful, but it's not going to happen.  Millions of people far prefer UF-FSU.

[Hurricane Mutiny]

HM, nice analysis and all of your points have validity.  In your work with ISC, you know that many factors go into these decisions.  So, selling single tickets isn't one of them.  Not sure if UM is joining other programs in shrinking their active recruiting zone, but Tampa Bay certainly cheaper to recruit than CA.  If oil goes nuts again, travel costs factor in as well.  2-4 times a decade would make for some interesting games.

SRQ, you are correct that there are a lot of factors in the decisions.  I am fortunate to have some insights from working with people that have to sell 100K to 200K of tickets for a big event, sometimes twice a year.  The analytics that have to be taken into account for forecasting are trending very poorly right now for sports, particularly on issues of per-seat/seat-license charges, corporate sales, and hospitality.

I have had the opportunity to sit in conference calls where we have discussed the feedback that we have gotten from ticket buyers.  Many are making their purchase decisions later and later, partially due to the economy, partially due to the availability of tickets (including those from resellers such as Stub Hub) and/or the belief that tickets will be discounted close in time to the event (in college, this means unbundled tickets that do not have to be purchased in a season pack).

The one advantage that college sports have is affinity.  Since UM is a small private school, we do not have a huge local alum base with affinity for UM.  Bottom line is that we need 2-3 OOC games per year that will drive demand, both home and away.  And with many other BCS programs getting chicken-violation about scheduling strong OOC games (particularly the SEC), Kirby has his work cut out for him.

It's going to be tough.  We need for ND to want to play us.  We need Jeremy Foley to drop dead.  We need for the Pac 10 to get more adventurous with their 3 OOC games.

[Cubanbull]

The problem for UM scheduling is that this is a new era and teams like ND,UF and many of the other big names that would attract UM fans are more interested in getting 7 home games due to their maximixing revenues. That will squeeze Miami and make it difficult to schedule home-home with them.

Im not saying UM-USF needs to remain, all im saying is that is not as easy as it was back in the 80-90s times have changed.

[ajusf16]

too long of replys

cliff notes?

[jaym]

One thing that I always admired about Miami back in the day they would play anybody anywhere. The gators have NEVER done that, FSU did it a bit.

Frankly I think this is a byproduct of the BCS because there is little reward for going on the road.

[Grateful Dad]

One thing I would like all Bulls to be cognizant of -- Do not sound like UCiFer's begging for a "Rivalry".  We are not, nor will we be for a long time, "Rivals" of Miami.  Just F'ing beat them.  There are slews of teams out there to play that will add to our prestige.  Miami and FSU are convenient.  That's all.  Beat whomever we play and the "rivalry" crap be damned.  I have watched (perhaps in other threads) the exact same posts on our board that UCiF posts on theirs about us.  Just change the name from Miami to USF.

Beat ranked teams.  If Miami thinks we are below them, fine.  Screw 'em.  Play some other ranked team.  Doesn't matter.  I know -- recruiting.  But this team doesn't beg like UCiF.

Beat Miami and they will want to continue (we will have earned it).  Lose?  Find the next one.  There are plenty.

[Woogie53]

There's a couple points that no one has mentioned:

1) The gators are a bunch of p*ssys. They're happy with their cupcake schedule and 7-8 home games a year.

2) FSU-Miami isn't going to occur on Labor Day anymore (according to FSU administration)....it was ESPN's doings this year

3) USF will probably never really have a TRUE OOC rival, since they came about so late in the football era. The best bet would be to restart scheduling UCF, since they're eventually going to rise up one day and be a legit team (once that school gets it's **** in order)

4) Did I mention that UF is a bunch of little girls?