Division I-A Bowl Analysis (Short)

[Jim Johnson]

A quick look at the bowl picture for each conference:

Atlantic Coast Conference (6 slots)

Eligibile (6 teams): Va Tech, Miami, FSU, Virginia, GA Tech, UNC

Clemson declined a bid, leaving enough teams to fill the ACC's slots.

Big East Conference (4 slots)

Eligibile (5 teams): BC, WV, Pitt, U Conn, <Notre Dame>

1 Win: Syracuse

The Big East will have at least 1 extra team - two if Syracuse beats BC in Boston.

Big Ten Conference (7 slots)

Eligibile (6 teams): Mich, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota

1 Win: Northwestern

If Northwestern loses at Hawaii, the Big Ten will have an open slot in the Music City Bowl.

Big Twelve Conference (8 slots)

Eligibile (6 teams): OK, Texas, Tex A&M, Tex Tech, OK State, Colorado

1 Win: Iowa State, Nebraska

Iowa State needs 7 wins because they can not count a I-AA game this year.  The Big 12 should have an open slot (Houston), but could have another (Tangerine) depending on how things shake out.

Pacific Ten Conference (7 slots)

Eligibile: USC, Cal, AZ State, UCLA, OR State

The PAC 10 already has two open slots.  One of the slots (the Silicon Valley Classic) has signed a deal with the MAC to take an extra team this year.  That leaves one more open slot (Emerald Bowl - formerly known as the San Francisco Bowl) -- if California receives the expected bid to the Rose Bowl, while USC goes to the Orange Bowl, the PAC 10 will have a second open slot (Las Vegas Bowl).

Southeastern Conference (8 slots)

Eligibile: Auburn, Tenn, LSU, Georgia, 'Bama, Florida

1 Win: Arkansas

South Carolina has declined a bowl bid, and if LSU beats Arkansas at home, it would leave two open slots for the SEC (Houston & Independence).

I-A Indepdenents (0 slots)

Eligibile: Navy, Notre Dame

Notre Dame gets the Big East tie-ins, but will probably finish at 6-5.  Navy gets a bowl game, though.

Conference USA (5 slots)

Eligibile: UofL, UAB, Cincy, Memphis

1 Win: USM, TCU

2 Wins: Tulane, USF

It would appear that C-USA will have enough teams to fill all of its slots, and possible one or two extra teams.  Tulane and TCU play each other, so only one of them could be extra.  Southern Miss plays UAB and California.  South Florida plays Memphis and Pittsburgh.

Mid American Conference (2 slots)

Eligibile: Miami, Toledo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Akron, Marshall

The MAC signed a deal to send a third team to fill the PAC-10 slot in the Silicon Valley Classic.  With three more extra teams, there may be more MAC teams bowl-bound.

Mountain West Conference (4 slots)

Eligibile: Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming

Utah will take a BCS slot, but the MWC Liberty Bowl slot will likely be filled by Boise State.  Thus, there are no open slots or extra teams from the MWC.

Western Athletic Confernece (4 slots)

Eligibile: Boise State, UTEP, Fresno State

2 Wins: Hawaii

Hawaii has to win its last two games against Big Ten opponents to play in their own bowl game..  Otherwise a MAC team may be heading to Hawaii.

Sun Belt Conference (1 slot)

Eligibile: North Texas, Troy

North Texas won the conference, again - but Troy could go bowling in their first SBC season.

[Jim Johnson]

The South Carolina – Clemson fight has opened up another slot, and removed the extra ACC team.  This gives 6 slots for what may only be 7 teams – will USF be on the outside looking in??

Open Slots & At Large Teams

Projected Open Slots: (6-7)

ACC: None

Big East: None

Big 10: None

Big 12: MPC Computers (vs ACC) ["Maybe" Tangerine (vs ACC)]

PAC-10: Emerald (vs MWC), Vegas (vs MWC)

SEC: Houston (vs Big 12), Independence (vs Big 12)

C-USA: None

MAC: None

MWC: None

WAC: Hawaii (vs C-USA)

Sun Belt: None

Projected At-Large Teams: (7-8)

ACC: None

Big East: Connecticut

Big Ten: None

Big 12: None

PAC-10: None

SEC: None

Independents: Navy

C-USA: South Florida ["Maybe" Southern Miss]

MAC: Akron, Bowling Green,  Marshall

MWC: None

WAC: None

Sun Belt: Troy

----

Note -- it is mathematically possible (although improbable) for there to be more open slots than bowl eligible teams.  Of the above listed "at large," only South Florida is not currently eligible.

[Velcro]

We have to win out and pray, toss some salt over our shoulders, wish upon a star, find a four-leafed clover, etc etc.

[Markeymark]

There are still four teams who could win the Big East title & BCS berth.

If BC and WV both lose, then the higher-ranking of Pitt & Syracuse would go. So USF could still factor into the Big East race this year when everything's said and done.

[GarySJ]

I went through this on another thread. If you figure that Cal-Rose, Utah-Fiesta, Boise-Liberty, MAC-Silicon Valley and Navy-Emerald are solid, there will be at least 3 more openings and as many as 7 in a scenario where USF qualifies.

1. SEC #8/Houston (open)

2. Las Vegas (open)

3. Motor City or a WAC bowl (pending results of Northwestern at Hawaii, though at least one will be open)

4. Big XII #8/Fort Worth (if ISU or Neb loses)

5. Big XII #7/Orlando (if ISU and Neb both lose)

6. SEC #7/Music City (if LSU beats Arkansas)

7. Motor City or WAC game (if Hawaii beats N'western but loses to Mich St)

The schools we'd have to elbow out for these slots are:

1. Big East extra team (Pitt/UConn)

2. MAC #4 (Toledo/NIU/Miami/BGSU)

3. Troy State

4. Marshall (in addition to MAC #4)

5. Syracuse, if they beat Boston College

6. Akron

7. C-USA #7 (if USM, USF, and the TCU-Tulane winner all qualify)

I figure we come out about #5 in that list. So there's hope, but no guarantees even if we beat Memphis this weekend.

The outcomes we need:

- UAB over USM (USM could still qualify, but they'd have to beat Cal)

- Tulane over TCU (Tulane could still qualify, but they'd have to beat Louisville)

- LSU over Arkansas

- Colorado over Nebraska

- Boston College over Syracuse

- Missouri over Iowa State (though ISU will try to get a waiver even if they lose)

- Hawaii over Northwestern (I think this is preferable to NU winning, as it frees up a game that looked at USF before, and possibly a second game as well)

[Jim Johnson]

Gary -- good analysis...

I hadn't seen the news about Navy and the Emerald Bowl, but it makes some sense.

First and foremost, USF needs to take care of its business.  Beat Memphis.  Beat Pittsburgh.  Without that, any other discussion about USF and Bowls is moot.

Second, I believe the WAC #3 bowl will be the Hawaii bowl -- why would Fresno State or UTEP travel there when they can play in Idaho (MPC Computers) or San Jose (Silicon Valley)??  Less teavel costs, more fans could travel to a game on the continent.  USF won't take this slot because the opponent would be another C-USA team.

Third, from the Big Twelve:

BIG 12 RECEIVES POST-SEASON BOWL WAIVER

DALLAS – The Big 12 has received a waiver for its North Division champion to participate in a bowl game if their record is 6-6 after playing in the Conference Championship Game.  The waiver was granted for this season only by the NCAA Administrative Review Subcommittee (ARS) as a condition

of allowing the Conference to fill one of its contractual bowl commitments.  The ARS granted the waiver on the recommendations of the Division I  Football Issues Committee and the Postseason Football Licensing Subcommittee.

Also... if Nebraska beats Colorado and Missouri beats Iowa State ... Nebraska wins the Big 12 North at 6-5, Colorado is already bowl eligible, and Iowa State could receive their waiver.  Thus, no Big 12 Slots could be available... (This isn't likely, but possible).

Just other points to ponder...

[GarySJ]

Thanks for your report. I think the Big XII just pulled a fast one on the NCAA.

I don't have a problem with the NCAA granting a waiver to a 6-6 division champ that would have otherwise qualified. We don't want to punish teams for winning their division. In fact, my previous report assumed that a 6-5 Colo/Neb team would not be eliminated from bowl contention by playing in the conference title game.

The problem is that this language does not address Iowa State's unique situation, namely that they are NOT bowl-eligible at 6-5 because they have previously used their once-every-four-years I-AA waiver.

If they're not eligible at 6-5, why should they be eligible at 6-6 as Big XII title game losers? Well, the language of the waiver says that "a 6-6 North Division champion that loses the conference championship game" can go.

I wonder if this was an attempt to circumvent the once-every-four-years rule on behalf of ISU, in case they end up winning the North at 6-5.

BTW, here's proof the rule is still in effect, from an October 2004 ncaa.org article:

One (rule) that I-AA members mention most often is their desire to allow I-A teams to count a game each year against a I-AA team toward bowl eligibility. Current rules allow that only once every four years.

http://www2.ncaa.org/media_and_events/association_news/ncaa_news_online/2004/10_11_04/front_page_news/4121n01.html

[bulls96go]

just win jim!

[Ricky the Bull]

just win jim!

Thanks for adding so much to the thread.   ???

[Ricky the Bull]

Navy just accepted an invitation to the Emerald Bowl.

http://www.sanfranciscobowl.com/index.asp?content=pr112204