Updated Division I-A Bowl Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

I know it seems to be a moot point, now… but…

For those who are interested, here is an analysis of Division I-A bowl games.

Let’s start with our very own…

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Louisville (6-0, 8-1) – The Cardinals have just about clinched the Conference USA championship and the slot in the Liberty Bowl.  Remaining Games: vs Cincinnati, @ Tulane.

Alabama-Birmingham (5-2, 7-3) – The Blazers were imploding, according to their fans.  To be sure, consecutive losses to Tulane and South Florida hurt; however UAB still goes to a bowl game. Remaining Game: @ USM.

Memphis (4-3, 7-3) – The Tigers hung on to beat ECU – but they are still going to a bowl.  Remaining Game: @ South Florida.

Cincinnati (4-2, 5-2) – The Bearcats offense has found the groove – can they knock off Louisville before going to a bowl game? Remaining Game: @ Louisville.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Southern Mississippi (4-3, 5-3) – The Golden Eagles’ started strong, but may not make it to a bowl game.  Remaining Games: vs UAB, vs California.

Texas Christian (2-4, 4-5) – The Horned Frogs of 2004 are not the same 2003 team that threatened to blow up the BCS.  But one more win will get them to bowl eligibiltiy.  Remaining Games: vs USM, vs Tulane

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

South Florida (3-4, 4-5) – The Bulls turned their season around against UAB.  However, a bowl game remains unlikely.  USF needs to win their last 2 games to be eligible – and to avoid their second ever losing season.  At least the games are at home.  They may still need some help getting an invite.  Remaining Games: vs Memphis, vs Pittsburgh.

Tulane (2-4, 4-5) – The Green Wave at the bottom of Conference USA, with their only wins over UAB & Army.  Their season looks to be over, bring on Rice & SMU!  Remaining Games: @ TCU, vs Louisville.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Houston (3-4, 3-7) – The Cougars are an impressive .500 in conference play, too bad they lost all three OOC games.

Army (2-6, 2-8) – After wins over UC and USF, the Black Knights seemed to have everything together.  Too bad those are their only wins this year.

East Carolina (2-6, 2-8) – The Pirates’ season won’t end well.  They can play spoiler with a game against and Memphis.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Louisville (Liberty)

Alabama-Birmingham (GMAC)

Memphis (New Orleans)

Cincinnati (Hawaii)

TCU (Fort Worth)

South Florida

[Jim Johnson]

Atlantic Coast Conference

Bowl Eligible

Virginia Tech (5-1, 8-2) – The Hokies game against Miami could be the unofficial ACC championship game.  Remaining Games: vs Virginia, @ Miami.

Miami (5-2, 8-2) – I guess the Hurricanes have discovered that Clemson and North Carolina are not Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Welcome to the ACC, Miami, and maybe a berth in the Gator Bowl! Remaining Game: vs Va Tech.

Virginia (4-2, 7-2) – The Cavaliers lost the lead of the ACC.  Looks like the BCS is almost gone – but they are going to a bowl.  Remaining Game: @ Va Tech.

Florida State (6-2, 8-3) – The Seminoles are in third in the ACC, after the UM and Maryland losses.  The first loss at home to the Florida Gators since 1986 is another mark on the downward spiral for the once mighty ‘Noles.  Can you say Tangerine Bowl?  No Remaining Games.

Georgia Tech (5-4, 6-4) – The Yellow Jackets made it.  Remaining Game: @ Georgia.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Clemson (4-4, 6-5) – The Tigers upset over Miami was critical, and gave them a shot at a bowl game.  The brawl versus South Carolina was enough to take it away.  No Remaining Games.

North Carolina (5-3, 6-5) – The Tar Heels win over Miami earlier this season was enough to get them to a bowl game – in Idaho.  No Remaining Games.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

North Carolina State (3-5, 4-6) – The Wolfpack had some penalty and offensive problems – sound familiar?.

Maryland (2-5, 4-6) – The Terrapins aren’t quite ready for UM and Va Tech.

Wake Forest (1-6, 4-6) – The Demon Deacons’ OOC wins helped posture them to win a few to make it.  The problem is their schedule didn’t help.

Duke (1-7, 2-9) – The Blue Devils have been out for a few weeks now.  They could spoil Carolina’s season, if they can muster their first conference win.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (5 Bowl Slots)

Virginia Tech (BCS- Sugar)

Miami (Gator)

Virginia (Peach)

Florida State (Tangerine)

Georgia Tech (Continental Tire)

North Carolina (MPC Computers)

[Jim Johnson]

Big East

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Boston College (4-1, 8-2) – The Eagles might win the conference in their last Big East season.  Remaining Game: vs Syracuse.

West Virginia (4-1, 6-2) – The Mountaineers were expected to win the downsized Big East, but need a BC L to make it to the BCS.  Remaining Game: @ Pitt.

Pittsburgh (3-2, 6-3) – The Panthers win over the Irish gave them their bowl game. Remaining Games: vs West Virginia, @ South Florida.

Connecticut (2-4, 6-4) – The Huskies are going bowling in their first year in the Big East.  Remaining Game: @ Rutgers.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Syracuse (3-2, 5-5) – The Orangemen surprised many with a win over Pitt, now they only need to win their last game to make a bowl.  Remaining Game: @ BC.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Rutgers (1-5, 4-6) – The Scarlet Knights are not quite the doormats of yesteryear, but they still aren’t bowling.

Temple (1-5, 2-9) – The Owls are looking forward to returning to an independent, a level that will better suit their talent (or lack thereof).

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Boston College (BCS – Fiesta)

West Virginia (Gator)

Pittsburgh (Insight)

Connecticut

Note: Notre Dame will take the Big East slot in the Continental Tire Bowl.

[Jim Johnson]

Big Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Michigan (7-1, 9-2) – The Wolverines got the help they needed to get the Rose Bowl berth..  No Remaining Games.

Iowa (7-1, 9-2) – The Hawkeyes are doing well, and get to head to yet another bowl game.  No Remaining Games.

Wisconsin (6-2, 9-2) – Two straight losses to end the season dropped them out of the BCS.  No Remaining Games..

Ohio State (4-4, 7-4) – The Buckeyes are going bowling, but it won’t be one of the biggies.  No Remaining Games.

Purdue (4-4, 7-4) – Like Minnesota, the Boilermakers have faded this season, but they are in a bowl game.  At least they get their rivalry game with Indiana to do it. No Remaining Games.

Minnesota (3-5, 6-5) – The Gophers have faded this season; thankfully, it’s all over but the bowl game.  No Remaining Games

Need One Win (5 wins)

Northwestern (5-3, 6-5) – The Wildcats have looked strong, perhaps a return to a bowl game is in their cards – win in Hawaii and they make it.  Remaining Game: @ Hawaii.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Michigan State (4-4, 5-6) – The Spartans lost their first game of the season to Rutgers, pushed Michigan to 3 overtimes, beat an undefeated Wisconsin, and lost to Penn State.  Go figure.

Penn State (2-6, 4-7) – Perhaps the Big Ten wasn’t the best place for JoePa.  Would the Big East still want them?

Indiana (1-7, 3-8) – Another season without a bowl game for the Hoosiers.

Illinois (1-7, 3-8) – At least the Illini don’t have to wait too long for the end to come.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Michigan (BCS – Rose)

Iowa (Capital One)

Wisconsin (Outback)

Purdue (Alamo)

Ohio State (Sun)

Minnesota (Music City)

Northwestern (Motor City)

[Jim Johnson]

Big Twelve Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Oklahoma (8-0, 11-0) – The Sooners look like they are a virtual shoo-in for the national championship game.  Remaining Game: Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas (6-1, 9-1) – The Longhorns are looking good, and would probably be BCS bound if it weren’t for Utah.  At least they get to play a bowl game in Texas.  Remaining Game: vs Texas A&M.

Texas A&M (5-2, 7-3) – The Aggies high-powered offense will play in the post-season, maybe even in Texas.  Remaining Game: @ Texas.

Oklahoma State (4-3, 7-3) – The Cowboys are assured of a slot, probably in Shreveport.  Remaining Game: @ Texas Tech.

Texas Tech (4-3, 6-4) – The Red Raiders are going somewhere, it remains to be seen where.  Remaining Game: vs Oklahoma State.

Colorado (3-4, 6-4) – The Buffaloes need help to win the North – but they are still going to a bowl game..  Remaining Game: @ Nebraska.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Iowa State (3-3, 6-4) –The Cyclones need a 7th win because they can not count a I-AA win from earlier this year, and the win gives them the Big 12 North with a date against Oklahoma.  Remaining Games: vs Missouri, Big 12 Championship Game.

Nebraska (3-4, 5-5) – The Cornhuskers are not having a typical Nebraska season – and it may not end well.  They may not make a bowl.  Remaining Game: vs Colorado.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Missouri (2-5, 4-6) – The Tigers are looking at next year, will they keep their coach?

Kansas State (2-6, 4-7) – The Wildcats won’t be playing beyond their last game.

Kansas (2-6, 4-7) – The Jayhawks remain at the bottom of the Big 12 North.

Baylor (1-7 3-8) – The Bears have lost 35 straight Big 12 road games.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (8 Bowl Slots)

Oklahoma (BCS – Orange)

Texas (Cotton)

Texas Tech (Holiday)

Texas A&M (Alamo)

Oklahoma State (Independence)

Iowa State (Tangerine)

Colorado (Houston)

<OPEN SLOT> (MPC Computers)

[Jim Johnson]

Pacific Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Southern California (7-0, 10-0) – The Trojans won a share of the title last year, and the changes to the BCS could give them the whole National Championship this year.  They can virtually pack their bags for Miami.  Remaining Games: vs Notre Dame, @ UCLA.

California (7-1, 9-1) – While the Bears are the second best team in the Pac 10, they are good enough to win most other BCS conferences.  Looks like they get Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  Remaining Game: @ Southern Mississippi.

Arizona State (5-2, 8-2) – The Sun Devils are strong this year, but playing in a sound league.  They still should win out. Remaining Game: @ Arizona.

California-Los Angeles (4-3, 6-4) – The Bruins are the fifth team heading to a bowl game from the Pac-10, if they can win on the road.  Remaining Game: vs Southern Cal.

Oregon State (5-3, 6-5) – The Beavers might be able to do it, but they need to win out to make it.  No Remaining Games..

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Oregon (4-4, 5-6) – The Ducks didn’t get it done in their OOC games.

Washington State (3-5, 5-6) – The Wildcats are out, again.  Maybe they need Mike Price back?

Stanford (2-6, 4-7) – The Cardinal had its chance this year, but couldn’t make it happen.

Arizona (1-6, 2-8) – Mike Stoops hasn’t turned around these wildcats yet.

Washington (0-8, 1-10) – What can probation do to a team?  The Huskies know.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Southern California (BCS – Orange)

California (BCS – Rose)

Arizona State (Holiday)

UCLA (Insight)

Oregon (Sun)

<OPEN SLOT> (Vegas)

<OPEN SLOT> (Silicon Valley)

<OPEN SLOT> (Emerald)

[Jim Johnson]

Southeastern Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Auburn (8-0, 11-0) – The Tigers are looking at an undefeated season, too bad they will still be #3.  Remaining Game: SEC Championship game against Tennessee.

Tennessee (6-1, 7-2) – The Volunteers clinched the SEC West and a rematch game.  Remaining Games: Kentucky, SEC Championship game against Auburn.

Georgia (6-2, 8-2) – The Bulldogs have lost their BCS deams.  But they still get to play in a bowl game.  Remaining Game: vs Georgia Tech.

Alabama (3-5, 6-5) – The Crimson Tide have resurfaced from probation and Shula has them bowl bound.  No Remaining Games.

Louisiana State (5-2, 7-2) – The Tigers were National Champs last year, now they may play a bowl in Shreveport.  Remaining Game: @ Arkansas.

Florida (4-4, 7-4) – The Gators made a bowl and beat FSU for Zook.  No Remaining Games.

South Carolina (4-4. 6-5) – The Gamecocks fought their way out of a bowl game.  No Remaining Games.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Arkansas (3-4, 5-5) – The Razorbacks will be out of the bowl season if they lose any more games, will they beat LSU?  Remaining Game: vs Louisiana State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Mississippi – (2-5, 3-7) The Rebels are out of the post season.

Mississippi State (2-5, 3-7) – Despite a shocking win over Florida, the Bulldogs couldn’t pull the season out for Croom.

Vanderbilt (1-7, 2-9) – At least the Commodores are not in last place!

Kentucky (1-6, 2-8) – The Wildcats may not win an SEC game this season.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Auburn (BCS – Sugar)

Tennessee (Capitol One)

Louisiana State (Cotton)

Georgia (Outback)

Alabama (Peach)

Florida (Music City)

<OPEN SLOT> (Independence)

<OPEN SLOT> (Houston)

[Jim Johnson]

I-A Independents

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Navy (8-2) – The Midshipmen will go bowling!  Remaining Game: vs Army.

Notre Dame (6-4) – The Fighting Irish made it to a bowl, barely.  Remaining Game: @ Southern Cal.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Navy

Notre Dame (Insight)

[Jim Johnson]

Mid-American Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Toledo (6-1, 7-3) – The Rockets look strong, beating a ranked Northern Illinois on national television.  They could be bound for Mobile.  Remaining Game:  vs Bowling Green, MAC Championship.

Miami (7-1, 8-3) – The Red Hawks won the MAC East again this year, and could win it all, if they can beat the Toledo-Bowling Green winner. Remaining Game: MAC Championship.

Bowling Green (6-1, 8-2) – The Falcons are strong, and with a few open slots, they may actually get to a bowl game.  Their game against Toledo could decide the MAC West.  Remaining Game: @ Toledo.

Northern Illinois (7-1, 8-3) – The Huskies have looked strong, but came up short against Toledo.  Maybe they can take one of the open slots somewhere.  No Remaining Games.

Akron (6-2, 6-5) – The Zips have moved through the MAC, and could go to a bowl – if there are enough open slots.  No Remaining Games.

Marshall (5-3, 6-5) – The Thundering Herd got to 6 wins, but it might not be enough to do go bowling.  At least C-USA has more bowl tie- ins next year!!  No Remaining Games.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Eastern Michigan (4-4, 4-7) – The Eagles have managed to do well, but not enough to make it to a bowl game.

Kent State (3-4, 4-6) – The Golden Flashes are among the teams that won’t make it to a bowl game.  At least the MAC is better than the Sun Belt.

Central Michigan (3-5, 4-7) – The Chippewas are consistently on the Bottom 10 list.

Ohio (2-6, 5-6) – The Bobcats almost beat Pitt, but it wasn’t enough.

Ball State (2-5, 2-8) – The Cardinals might look forward to a down-sized MAC.

Buffalo (2-6, 2-9) – The Bulls have made it out of the MAC cellar, thanks to a visit from UCF.

Western Michigan (0-8, 1-10) – The Broncos finished where everyone expected them to be.

Central Florida (0-7, 0-10) – The Knights have the longest losing streak in the nation – 14 straight.  Will O’Leary and company manage to win one this year?  We all know C-USA will be harder.  Remaining Game: vs Kent State.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Miami (GMAC)

Toledo (Motor City)

Northern Illinois (Silicon Valley)

Akron

Bowling Green

Marshall

[Jim Johnson]

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Utah (7-0, 11-0) – Will the Utes get to play in a BCS Bowl? They are virtually guaranteed to be #6 in the BCS.  No Remaining Games.

New Mexico (5-2, 7-4) – The Lobos might make it, but they have a challenge ahead.  No Remaining Games.

Wyoming (3-4, 6-5) – The Cowboys have made it to a bowl game.  Is the end of the world coming?  No Remaining Games.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Brigham Young (4-3, 5-6) – The Cougars couldn’t get it done this year.  

Air Force (3-4, 5-6) – The Falcons have it easier than New Mexico, but can’t afford to lose a game.

Colorado State (2-5, 3-8) – The Rams are looking forward to next year, when TCU comes back!

San Diego State (2-5, 4-7) – The Aztecs need something to compete – maybe they can pay for Urban Meyer to go to Florida.

Nevada-Las Vegas (1-6, 2-9) – The Running Rebels are better that 2005 will be better.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Utah (BCS – Fiesta)

New Mexico (Vegas)

Wyoming (Emerald)

Note: Boise State will take the MWC slot in the Liberty Bowl.