Updated I-A Bowl Analysis (Long)

[GarySJ]

Agreed. But let's not overlook that the Fiesta Bowl might actually WANT to invite Utah, not caring if they are #6 or #7 so long as they beat BYU.

[Jim Johnson]

Don't forget that Texas has an outstanding chance of still gaining a BCS bid.  They're currently #5 in the standings.  That could open up a slot right there.  

A Colorado win would eliminate Nebraska, and it's not a stretch to imagine both Missouri and Iowa State failing to qualify - especially if it's true that Iowa State won't be able to qualify at 6-5 because of using a I-AA win within the last four years.  

There's still also the prospects that the North Division winner finishes the regular season at 6-5, loses to Oklahoma and then falls to 6-6, which I've also read (but not seen confirmed) would make them ineligible for a postseason bowl bid.  

It just gets curiouser and curiouser...

USFFan

Fan -

Texas won't get a BCS bid:

 1) If #6 Utah finishes in the Top 6, they automatically get a BCS bid.

 2) If #4 Cal is still ranked higher than Texas in the final BCS, then they will get the other at large bid.  

It won't mean much, though.  Instead of an extra open slot for the Pac 10, it will be for the Big 12.

Actually, it doesn't matter what conference gets the extra BCS slot.  The PAC 10, Big 12, and SEC are all going to have at least one open slot.  The Big 10 and ACC will have the same number of teams and contracted slots. (The Big East isn't gonna get two teams in the BCS.)  Which ever conference gets the extra BCS team - there will be an extra open slot in one of their bowls.

---

The Big 12 North Division scenarios are like this:

Iowa State wins if - they beat K State and Missouri, OR they beat Mizzou and Nebraska beats Colorado.

Nebraska wins if - they beat Colrado and Missouri beats Iowa State.

Colorado (already bowl eligible) wins if - they beat Nebraska, K State beats Iowa State, and Mizzou beats Iowa State.

Missouri wins if - they beat Kansas and Iowa State, and Colorado beats Nebraska.

According to this Big 12 Press Release: http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/big12/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/111504_Release.pdf[/size[

This would mean that the Big 12 North Champion could lose the Championship game, finish 6-6 and not make the post-season.

The BEST SCENARIO for USF (maximizing the open slots) would be for this:

- Colorado beats Nebraska; AND

- Missouri loses to Kansas, but beats Iowa State.

This would make Colorado the only bowl eligbile team from the North and they would win the division.  Making 6 Big 12 teams for 8 slots (leaving two open).

We will know more after this weekend. (Kansas @ Missouri & Iowa State @ Kansas State)

[Jim Johnson]

Agreed. But let's not overlook that the Fiesta Bowl might actually WANT to invite Utah, not caring if they are #6 or #7 so long as they beat BYU.

Gary... It looks like the choice may be Utah or Texas.  I would think Texas would be the better draw for the Fiesta Committee.

[Markeymark]

I still think there's plenty of time for Utah to drop back to #7 in the BCS rankings.  Their last game is to BYU, which will further hurt their computer rankings, while Michigan will pick up votes and improve in the BCS standings with a win over Ohio State.  I wouldn't put it past voters to drop Utah below Michigan.

Computer rankings are going to move very little from here on out - only a loss by any given team would cause them to lose ground in the computers at this point. Utah's best chance at getting screwed comes from the voters themselves. It's hard to see how 1-loss Michigan gains ground on Utah unless BYU really gives them a scare this week. The Big Ten isn't "all that" anymore, and most voters know it...

[USFFan]

Computer rankings are going to move very little from here on out - only a loss by any given team would cause them to lose ground in the computers at this point. Utah's best chance at getting screwed comes from the voters themselves. It's hard to see how 1-loss Michigan gains ground on Utah unless BYU really gives them a scare this week. The Big Ten isn't "all that" anymore, and most voters know it...

And yet Utah only leads Texas by 15 and Michigan by 37 in the AP poll and leads Michigan by only 12 in the ESPN/USA Today poll, with several weeks left to go before the final regular season polls are released.  A Texas win over Texas A&M and a Michigan win over Ohio State will impress voters more than a Utah win over BYU (all that's left in the regular season), and don't dismiss the prospects of lobbying to make sure Michigan and Texas pass Utah to knock them out of that #6 spot.

USFFan