Updated I-A Bowl Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

Western Athletic Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Boise State (6-0, 9-0) – The Broncos will finish undefeated, but won’t crack the BCS.  Remaining Games: vs La Tech, @ Nevada.

Texas-El Paso (4-2, 6-3) – Mike Price has gone a long way from ‘Bama to UTEP.  Ã¢â‚¬Å“It’s rolling, baby!† Remaining Games:vs SMU, @ Tulsa.

Fresno State (3-3, 6-3) – The Bulldogs throttled Hawaii, and are on their way to another bowl game.  Remaining Games: vs Nevada, @ San Jose State.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Nevada (3-4, 5-5) – The Wolfpack could go bowling, needing to win one of two, might be hard to do.  Remaining Games: @ Fresno State, vs Boise State.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Hawaii (4-4, 4-5) – The Warriors may not make it to their own bowl game, needing to win two of their last 4 games – which means beating a Big Ten team.  Remaining Games: vs Idaho, vs Northwestern, vs Michigan State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Louisiana Tech (3-3, 4-6) – The Bulldogs are out.

Rice (3-4, 4-6) – Will the Owls find it easier in Conference USA?

Southern Methodist (3-4, 3-7) – The Mustangs are slowly coming back from the dead. Very slowly.

Tulsa (2-4, 3-7) – At least the Golden Hurricane won’t have to play on Boise’s blue carpet any more.

San Jose State (1-5, 2-7) – While they did push Boise State, the Spartans are still hoping that adding Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State will push them out of the WAC basement.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Boise State (Liberty)

UTEP (MPC Computers)

Fresno State (Silicon Valley)

<OPEN SLOT> (Hawaii)

[Jim Johnson]

Sun Belt Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

North Texas (6-0, 6-4) – The Eagles have won 23 straight Sun Belt games.  They will continue this streak.  Remaining Game: @ Arkansas State.

Troy (3-2, 5-4) – The Trojans look strong in their first season in a I-A conference – and might get a bowl slot, if someone invites them.  Remaining Game: vs Middle Tennessee State.

Need One Win (5 wins)

New Mexico State (4-2, 5-5) – The Lobos are in their last year in the Sun Belt, so they might do better in the WAC.  Remaining Game: @ Utah State.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Middle Tennessee State (4-3, 5-5) – The Blue Raiders are still in the middle of the Sun Belt pack.  Not much to brag about there.  Remaining Game: @ Troy.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Louisiana-Monroe (3-3, 4-6) – The Indians did better than is expected for a Louisiana-directional school.

Louisiana-Lafayette (2-4, 4-6) – The Ragin’ Cajuns didn’t do much ragin’ this season.  Next year they get FAU & FIU as conference foes, so it might get easier.

Arkansas State (3-3, 3-7) – At least two more Florida schools will make for fun road trips for the Indians.

Idaho (2-5 2-8) – Finally, the Boise State game will be a conference match-up for the Vandals.

Utah State (1-5, 2-8) – The Aggies get to play the Utes from the WAC next season, that’s something to shoot for.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

North Texas (New Orleans)

Troy

New Mexico State

[Jim Johnson]

Open Slots & At Large Teams

Projected Open Slots: (6)

Fort Worth – Big 12 Slot (vs C-USA)

Hawaii – WAC Sot (vs C-USA)

Vegas – Pac 10 Slot (vs MWC)

Silicon Valley – Pac 10 Slot (vs WAC)

Emerald – Pac 10 Slot (vs MWC)

Houston – SEC Slot (vs Big 12)

Projected At-Large Teams: (10)

Akron

Bowling Green

Connecticut

Navy

Marshall

New Mexico State

Northern Illinois

Northwestern

South Florida

Troy

Four teams will win 6 games this year, but won’t get to go to a bowl game.

[GarySJ]

Jim,

Iowa State needs 2 wins to be bowl-eligible, because they cannot count their I-AA win. They can only use this exemption once every 4 years and they have recently used it. So they will win the Big XII North, or not go to a bowl.

Michigan State, Northwestern, Hawaii and any WAC teams that play 12 games all need to get to 7-5, so they must each win all their remaining games. Since Hawaii hosts both MSU and NU, they can't all three make it. At most, two can. If Hawaii splits the two Big Ten games, only one will.

I still say USF's best non-CUSA bowl option would be for the Tangerine to come open. I think it's #7 in their list, so it will be available if Colorado is the only North team to qualify, or if Texas makes the BCS at-large.

[Jim Johnson]

Jim,

Iowa State needs 2 wins to be bowl-eligible, because they cannot count their I-AA win. They can only use this exemption once every 4 years and they have recently used it. So they will win the Big XII North, or not go to a bowl.

Michigan State, Northwestern, Hawaii and any WAC teams that play 12 games all need to get to 7-5, so they must each win all their remaining games. Since Hawaii hosts both MSU and NU, they can't all three make it. At most, two can. If Hawaii splits the two Big Ten games, only one will.

I still say USF's best non-CUSA bowl option would be for the Tangerine to come open. I think it's #7 in their list, so it will be available if Colorado is the only North team to qualify, or if Texas makes the BCS at-large.

Gary -

I didn't realize that about Iowa State -- but they are only 5-4, and could win both of their remaining games to finish 7-4 (and I think they will).   Thus the I-AA game won't matter.

I also forgot about NW and MSU (someone else reminded me on the original thread).  I have corrected the Big Ten post on this thread.. but I think both NW and MSU will win out.  I didn't have Hawaii making it to a bowl game.

I think USF's best chance will remain in C-USA.  IF USF can win on Saturday, then Cincy is out (they won't beat Louisville), leaving that 5th C-USA slot open for USF -- if the Bulls can go on to beat Memphis or Pitt.  Of course, that probably means Christmas in Hawaii against a MAC team (like Bowling Green or Akron).

[GarySJ]

The other problem as I see it is the persistent existence of TCU and Tulane. Considering that both schools' home stadiums host CUSA bowl games, these are teams we'd better hope lose. Fortunately they face each other, so at most one will qualify. Let's hope they both lose this week (I think they face UofL and USM).

[Jim Johnson]

The other problem as I see it is the persistent existence of TCU and Tulane. Considering that both schools' home stadiums host CUSA bowl games, these are teams we'd better hope lose. Fortunately they face each other, so at most one will qualify. Let's hope they both lose this week (I think they face UofL and USM).

I agree that would be a problem, but I don't think either team will win 6.  TCU plays USM and Tulane plays Louisville after TCU.

But with 6 open slots -- two of them in C-USA bowl games, the bowl season is not looking like a good one.

Imagine Troy State, Akron, U Conn, and New Mexico State all going to games with USF.  Talk about a whole bunch of empty seats.

Who knows, Gary, this kind of season might cause some bowl games to fold -- and you could get your wish of fewer games.

[Kizarvexis]

Jim,

Iowa State needs 2 wins to be bowl-eligible, because they cannot count their I-AA win. They can only use this exemption once every 4 years and they have recently used it. So they will win the Big XII North, or not go to a bowl.

Michigan State, Northwestern, Hawaii and any WAC teams that play 12 games all need to get to 7-5, so they must each win all their remaining games. Since Hawaii hosts both MSU and NU, they can't all three make it. At most, two can. If Hawaii splits the two Big Ten games, only one will.

I still say USF's best non-CUSA bowl option would be for the Tangerine to come open. I think it's #7 in their list, so it will be available if Colorado is the only North team to qualify, or if Texas makes the BCS at-large.

Anyone know if this draft proposal went through?

Draft - POSTSEASON BOWL CERTIFICATION – EXCEPTION – DIVISION I-A FOOTBALL

DRAFT

 

NO. 02

POSTSEASON BOWL CERTIFICATION – EXCEPTION – DIVISION I-A FOOTBALL

 

Intent:  In Division I-A football, to permit an institution to count one victory against a qualified Division I-AA institution annually instead of once every four years.

 

Bylaws:  Amend 30.9.2.1, page 368, as follows:

 

(Division I-A football only)

"30.9.2.1 Exception-Division I-AA Opponent.  Once every four years, Annually, a Division I-A institution may count one victory against a Division I-AA opponent toward the six-win minimum, provided the Division I-AA opponent has averaged 60 financial aid equivalencies in football during the three preceding academic years."

(30.9.2.1 through 30.9.2.2 renumbered as 30.9.2.2 through 30.9.2.3, unchanged.)

Source:  NCAA Division I-AA Football Committee.

 

Effective Date:  August 1, 2003.

 

Rationale:  Elimination of the "once-in-four-years" opportunity for a Division I-A institution to count a victory against a Division I-AA opponent toward the six-win minimum will provide current Division I-AA institutions the ability to generate additional revenues for its programs.  Further, permitting this exception each year will facilitate the continuance of regional rivalries with local Division I-A institutions on a yearly basis, eliminate the stigma of being a non-Division I-A program and may be seen as an enhancement for those current Division I-A teams that may reclassify due to the new Division I-A membership criteria.

 

Estimated Budget Impact:  None.

 

Impact on Student-Athlete's Time:  None.

Kizarvexis

BTW, You have Pitt at 5-3 with an upcoming game vs Notre Dame, but Pitt beat ND on Saturday.

[GarySJ]

Yeah, there are going to be some real turds in the bowl pool this year. The Houston game is tied with the SEC and Big XII and probably won't get either. The Hawaii game didn't draw flies last year WITH Hawaii playing in it. Can you imagine UAB vs UTEP in Honolulu? It would make an FAU home game look like a crowd scene from Gladiator.

[Jim Johnson]

Yeah, there are going to be some real turds in the bowl pool this year. The Houston game is tied with the SEC and Big XII and probably won't get either. The Hawaii game didn't draw flies last year WITH Hawaii playing in it. Can you imagine UAB vs UTEP in Honolulu? It would make an FAU home game look like a crowd scene from Gladiator.

Gary -- The Big 12 already has 6 bowl-eligible teams (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, & Colorado) so I can't see Houston having two open slots - especially with 3 teams from Texas available.

The Champs Sports (formerly Tangerine) bowl may be open, if Iowa State can't win two more games, and I agree with you that it would be a GREAT bowl game for USF.

---

Kiz - I fixed the Pitt error.  Thanks for pointing that out.