Updated I-A Bowl Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Louisville (5-0, 7-1) – The Cardinals are in the driver’s seat for Conference USA as the only team without a conference loss.  Remaining Games: @ Houston, vs Cincinnati, @ Tulane.

Memphis (3-3, 6-3) – The Tigers shows spunk in pushing Louisville, scoring 46 points.  While the loss may have been a disappointment, the season can end well if UM wins one more game to go to a bowl.  Vs USM, @ ECU, @ South Florida.

Alabama-Birmingham (4-2, 6-3) – The Blazers were imploding, according to their fans.  To be sure, consecutive losses to Tulane and South Florida hurt; however UAB still goes bowl game. Remaining Games: @ Army, @ USM.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Southern Mississippi (4-2, 5-3) – The Golden Eagles’ are basically out of a Liberty Bowl berth; but they can still make it to a bowl game.  Remaining Games: @ TCU, vs UAB, vs California.

Cincinnati (4-2, 5-2) – The Bearcats throttled both Memphis and USM – scoring more than 100 points total in both games.  With such an improved offense, UC might get the one win they need to go to a bowl; but they would have to beat the Bulls or the Cardinals to do it. Remaining Games: vs South Florida, @ Louisville.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

South Florida (3-3, 4-4) – The Bulls turned their season around against UAB.  However, a bowl game remains far up hill.  USF needs to win 2 of their last 3 to be eligible (with 2 out of their last 3 at home), and may need some help getting an invite.  Remaining Games: @ Cincinnati, vs Memphis, vs Pittsburgh.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Texas Christian (2-4, 4-5) – The Horned Frogs of 2004 are not the same 2003 team that threatened to blow up the BCS.  Two more wins might be darn near impossible to come by this season.  Remaining Games: vs USM, vs Tulane

Tulane (2-4, 4-5) – The Green Wave at the bottom of Conference USA, with their only wins over UAB & Army.  Their season looks to be over, bring on Rice & SMU!  Remaining Games: @ TCU, vs Louisville.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Houston (3-3, 3-6) – The Cougars are an impressive .500 in conference play, too bad they lost all three OOC games.

Army (2-5, 2-7) – After wins over UC and USF, the Black Knights seemed to have everything together.  Too bad those are their only wins this year.

East Carolina (2-5, 2-7) – The Pirates’ season won’t end well.  They can play spoiler with a game against and Memphis.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Louisville (Liberty)

Southern Mississippi (GMAC)

Alabama-Birmingham (New Orleans)

Memphis (Fort Worth)

Cincinnati (Hawaii)

South Florida

[Jim Johnson]

Atlantic Coast Conference

Bowl Eligible

Virginia Tech (4-1, 7-2) – The Hokies game against Miami could be the unofficial ACC championship game.  Remaining Games: vs Maryland, vs Virginia, @ Miami.

Miami (4-2, 7-2) – I guess the Hurricanes have discovered that Clemson and North Carolina are not Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Welcome to the ACC, Miami, and maybe a berth in the Gator Bowl! Remaining Games: vs Wake Forest, vs Va Tech.

Virginia (4-2, 7-2) – The Cavaliers lost the lead of the ACC.  Looks like the BCS is almost gone – but they are going to a bowl.  Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech, @ Va Tech.

Florida State (6-2, 8-2) – The Seminoles are in third in the ACC, after the UM and Maryland losses.  Can you say Peach Bowl?  Remaining Games: @ NC State, vs Florida.

Georgia Tech (5-3, 6-3) – The Yellow Jackets made it.  Remaining Games: vs UVa, @ Georgia.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Clemson (4-4, 5-5) – The Tigers upset over Miami was critical, and gave them a probable shot at a bowl game, but then the loss to Duke may have take it away.  Of course, they may be traveling to Boise, Idaho.  Remaining Game: vs South Carolina.

North Carolina (4-3, 5-5) – The Tar Heels win over Miami earlier this season may not have been enough to get them to a bowl game.  Then again, they have the easy part of their schedule left.  Remaining Games: @ Duke.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Wake Forest (1-5, 4-5) – The Demon Deacons’ OOC wins helped posture them to win a few to make it.  The problem is their schedule may not help.  Remaining Games: @ Miami, @ Maryland.

Maryland (2-4, 4-5) – The like their Carolina cousins, the Terrapins can’t lose another game.  They need another upset to make it.  Remaining Games: @ Va Tech, vs Wake Forest.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

North Carolina State (3-5, 4-6) – The Wolfpack had some penalty and offensive problems – sound familiar?.

Duke (0-6, 1-8) – The Blue Devils have been out for a few weeks now.  They could spoil Clemson’s season, if they can muster their first conference win.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (5 Bowl Slots)

Virginia Tech (BCS- Sugar)

Miami (Gator)

Florida State (Peach)

Virginia (Tangerine)

Georgia Tech (Continental Tire)

North Carolina (MPC Computers)

[Jim Johnson]

Big East

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Boston College (3-1, 7-2) – At least the Eagles can say they made a bowl game in their last Big East season.  Remaining Games: @ Temple, vs Syracuse.

West Virginia (4-1, 6-2) – The Mountaineers were expected to win the downsized Big East, but need a BC L to make it to the BCS.  Remaining Game: @ Pitt.

Pittsburgh (4-2,6-3) – The Panthers loss to the Orangemen could have spelled the end of their season, but beating the Irish gave them a bowl. Remaining Games: vs West Virginia, @ South Florida.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Syracuse (3-2, 5-5) – The Orangemen surprised many with a win over Pitt, now they only need to win their last game to make a bowl.  Remaining Game: @ BC.

Connecticut (2-4, 5-4) – The Huskies look to be going bowling in their first year in the Big East, mostly because they play those other Bulls this year.  Remaining Games: vs Buffalo, @ Rutgers.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Rutgers (1-4, 4-5) – The Scarlet Knights are not quite the doormats of yesteryear, but they still aren’t bowling.  Remaining Games: @ Navy, vs UConn.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Temple (1-4, 2-8) – The Owls are looking forward to returning to an independent, a level that will better suit their talent (or lack thereof).  Fitting that their last Big East game is against the other remaining team leaving the Big East.  Remaining Game: vs Boston College.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Boston College (BCS – Fiesta)

West Virginia (Gator)

Pittsburgh (Continental Tire)

Connecticut

Note: Notre Dame will take the Big East slot in the Insight Bowl.

[Jim Johnson]

Big Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Michigan (7-0, 9-1) – The Wolverines look like the strongest Big Ten team, and are guaranteed a share of the Big Ten title.  Big Blue fans can book those tickets for Pasadena.  Remaining Game: @ Ohio State.

Wisconsin (6-1, 9-1) – The Badgers loss to Michigan State has dropped them out of the BCS.  Remaining Game: @ Iowa.

Iowa (6-1, 8-2) – The Hawkeyes are doing well, and get to head to yet another bowl game.  Remaining Game: vs Wisconsin.

Ohio State (3-4, 6-4) – The Buckeyes are going bowling, but it won’t be one of the biggies.  Remaining Game: vs Michigan

Minnesota (3-5, 6-5) – The Gophers have faded this season; thankfully, it’s all over but the bowl game.  No Remaining Games

Purdue (3-4, 6-4) – Like Minnesota, the Boilermakers have faded this season, but they are in a bowl game.  At least they get their rivalry game with Indiana to do it. Remaining Game: vs Indiana.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Northwestern (4-3, 5-5) – The Wildcats have looked strong, perhaps a return to a bowl game is in their cards – with a 12 game schedule, they must win two to make it.  Remaining Games: vs Illinois, @ Hawaii.

Michigan State (4-3, 5-5) – The Spartans lost their first game of the season to Rutgers, but pushed Michigan to 3 overtimes.  Go figure.  With two games remaining i ntheir 12 game schedule, they have to win out to make it to a lesser bowl – their season could come down to their 12th game.  Remaining Games: @ Penn State, @ Hawaii

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

No other teams with 5 losses.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Indiana (1-6, 3-7) – Another season without a bowl game for the Hoosiers.

Illinois (1-6, 3-7) – At least the Illini don’t have to wait too long for the end to come.

Penn State (1-6, 3-7) – Perhaps the Big Ten wasn’t the best place for JoePa.  Would the Big East still want them?

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Michigan (BCS – Rose)

Wisconsin (Capital One)

Iowa (Outback)

Minnesota (Alamo)

Ohio State (Sun)

Purdue (Music City)

Michigan State (Motor City)

Northwestern

[Jim Johnson]

Big Twelve Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Oklahoma (7-0, 10-0) – The Sooners look like they are a virtual shoo-in for the national championship game.  Remaining Games: @ Baylor, Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas (6-1, 9-1) – The Longhorns are looking good, and would probably be BCS bound if it weren’t for Utah.  At least they get to play a bowl game in Texas.  Remaining Game: vs Texas A&M.

Texas A&M (5-2, 7-3) – The Aggies high-powered offense will play in the post-season, maybe even in Texas.  Remaining Game: vs Texas Tech, @ Texas.

Oklahoma State (4-3, 7-3) – The Cowboys are assured of a slot, probably in Shreveport.  Remaining Game: @ Texas Tech.

Texas Tech (4-3, 6-4) – The Red Raiders are going somewhere, it remains to be seen where.  Remaining Game: vs Oklahoma State.

Colorado (3-4, 6-4) – The Buffaloes are in the driver’s seat, as they beat Iowa State earlier this year.  Win out, and they get to play Oklahoma.  Remaining Game: @ Nebraska, (Big 12 Championship Game).

Need One Win (5 wins)

Iowa State (3-3, 5-4) – Does anyone want to win the Big 12 North? The Cyclones could be the team – having played the hard part of their schedule – but they need help.  Remaining Games: @ Kansas State, vs Missouri.

Nebraska (3-4, 5-5) – The Cornhuskers are not having a typical Nebraska season – and it may not end well.  They may not make a bowl.  Remaining Game: vs Colorado.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Missouri (2-4, 4-5) – The Tigers could make it to a bowl game, if they can pull an upset.  Remaining Games: vs Kansas, @ Iowa State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Kansas State (2-5, 4-6) – The Wildcats won’t be playing beyond their last game.

Kansas (1-5, 3-6) – The Jayhawks remain at the bottom of the Big 12 North.

Baylor (1-6 3-7) – The Bears have lost 35 straight Big 12 road games.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (8 Bowl Slots)

Oklahoma (BCS – Orange)

Texas (Cotton)

Colorado (Holiday)

Texas Tech (Alamo)

Oklahoma State (Independence)

Iowa State (Houston)

Texas A&M (Champs Sports - formerly the Tangerine)

<OPEN SLOT> (Ft. Worth)

[Jim Johnson]

Pacific Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Southern California (7-0, 10-0) – The Trojans won a share of the title last year, and the changes to the BCS could give them the whole National Championship this year.  They can virtually pack their bags for Miami.  Remaining Games: vs Notre Dame, @ UCLA.

California (61, 81) – While the Bears are the second best team in the Pac 10, they are good enough to win most other BCS conferences.  At least they still get to a BCS bowl.  Remaining Games: vs Stanford, @ Southern Mississippi.

Arizona State (5-2, 8-2) – The Sun Devils are strong this year, but playing in a sound league.  They still should win out. Remaining Game: @ Arizona.

California-Los Angeles (4-3, 6-4) – The Bruins are the fifth team heading to a bowl game from the Pac-10, if they can win on the road.  Remaining Game: vs Southern Cal.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Oregon (4-3, 5-5) – The Ducks are on the verge of a bowl season this year, but it has come down to their rivalry game.  Remaining Game: @ Oregon State.

Oregon State (4-3, 5-5) – The Beavers might be able to do it, but they need to win out to make it.  Remaining Game: vs Oregon.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

No other teams with 5 losses.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Stanford (2-5, 4-6) – The Cardinal had its chance this year, but couldn’t make it happen.

Washington State (2-5, 4-6) – The Wildcats are out, again.  Maybe they need Mike Price back?

Arizona (1-6, 2-8) – Mike Stoops hasn’t turned around these wildcats yet.

Washington (0-7, 1-9) – What can probation do to a team?  The Huskies know.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Southern California (BCS – Orange)

California (BCS – Rose)

Arizona State (Holiday)

UCLA (Insight)

Oregon (Sun)

<OPEN SLOT> (Vegas)

<OPEN SLOT> (Silicon Valley)

<OPEN SLOT> (Emerald)

[Jim Johnson]

Southeastern Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Auburn (7-0, 10-0) – The Tigers are looking at an undefeated season, too bad they will still be #3.  Remaining Games: @ Alabama, SEC Championship game against Tennessee.

Tennessee (5-1, 7-2) – The Volunteers are in the drivers’ seat, with a win over Georgia.  Remaining Games: @ Vanderbilt, Kentucky, SEC Championship game against Auburn.

Georgia (6-2, 8-2) – The Bulldogs have lost their BCS deams.  But they still get to play in a bowl game.  Remaining Game: vs Georgia Tech.

Alabama (4-3, 7-3) – The Crimson Tide have resurfaced from probation and Shula has them bowl bound.  Remaining Games: vs Auburn.

Louisiana State (3-3, 6-3) – The Tigers were National Champs last year, now they may play a bowl in Shreveport.  Remaining Games: vs Mississippi, @ Arkansas.

Florida (4-4, 6-4) – The Gators made a bowl for Zook, will he be there?  Remaining Game: @ Florida State.

South Carolina (4-4. 6-4) – The Gamecocks made it back to a bowl this year, thanks to South Florida.  Remaining Game: @ Clemson.

Need One Win (5 wins)

No other teams with 5 wins.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Arkansas (2-4, 4-5) – The Razorbacks will be out of the bowl season if they lose any more games, will they beat LSU?  Remaining Games: @ Mississippi State, vs Louisiana State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Mississippi – (2-4, 3-6) The Rebels are out of the post season.

Mississippi State (2-4, 3-6) – Despite a shocking win over Florida, the Bulldogs couldn’t pull the season out for Croom.

Vanderbilt (1-6, 2-8) – At least the Commodores are not in last place!

Kentucky (1-6, 2-8) – The Wildcats may not win an SEC game this season.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Auburn (BCS – Sugar)

Tennessee (Capitol One)

Louisiana State (Cotton)

Georgia (Outback)

Alabama (Peach)

South Carolina (Music City)

Florida (Independence)

<OPEN SLOT> (Houston)

[Jim Johnson]

I-A Independents

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Navy (7-2) – The Midshipmen will go bowling!  Remaining Games: vs Rutgers, vs Army.

Notre Dame (6-4) – The Fighting Irish made it to a bowl, barely.  Remaining Game: @ Southern Cal.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Navy

Notre Dame (Insight)

[Jim Johnson]

Mid-American Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Toledo (6-1, 7-3) – The Rockets look strong, beating a ranked Northern Illinois on national television.  They could be bound for Mobile.  Remaining Game:  vs Bowling Green, MAC Championship.

Miami (6-1, 7-3) – The Red Hawks may win the MAC again this year, if they can beat the best of the MAC West. Remaining Game: @ Akron, MAC Championship.

Bowling Green (6-1, 8-2) – The Falcons are strong, and with a few open slots, they may actually get to a bowl game.  Their game against Toledo could decide the MAC West.  Remaining Game: @ Toledo.

Northern Illinois (6-1, 7-3) – The Huskies have looked strong, but came up short against Toledo.  Maybe they can take one of the open slots somewhere.  Remaining Game: @ EMU.

Akron (6-1, 6-4) – The Zips have moved through the MAC, and could win the East if they can beat Miami – at least they play at home.  Remaining Games: vs Miami.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Marshall (5-2, 5-5) – The Thundering Herd will get to 6 wins, but it might not be enough to do go bowling.  At least C-USA has more bowl tie- ins next year!!  Remaining Games: vs WMU.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

No other teams with 5 losses.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Eastern Michigan (4-3, 4-6) – The Eagles have managed to do well, but not enough to make it to a bowl game.

Kent State (3-4, 4-6) – The Golden Flashes are among the teams that won’t make it to a bowl game.  At least the MAC is better than the Sun Belt.

Central Michigan (2-5, 3-7) – The Chippewas are consistently on the Bottom 10 list.

Ohio (2-6, 5-6) – The Bobcats almost beat Pitt, but it wasn’t enough.

Ball State (2-5, 2-8) – The Cardinals…

Buffalo (2-6, 2-8) – The Bulls have made it out of the MAC cellar, thanks to a visit from UCF.

Western Michigan (0-7, 1-9) – The Broncos finished where everyone expected them to be.

Central Florida (0-7, 0-10) – The Knights have the longest losing streak in the nation – 14 straight.  Will O’Leary and company manage to win one this year?  We all know C-USA will be harder.  Remaining Game: vs Kent State.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Miami (GMAC)

Toledo (Motor City)

Akron

Bowling Green

Marshall

Northern Illinois

[Jim Johnson]

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Utah (6-0, 10-0) – Will the Utes get to play in a BCS Bowl? Losses by Wisconsin and Georgia should move them up to #6.  Remaining Game: vs BYU.

New Mexico (4-2, 6-4) – The Lobos might make it, but they have a challenge ahead.  Remaining Game: vs Wyoming.

Wyoming (3-3, 6-4) – The Cowboys have made it to a bowl game.  Is the end of the world coming?  Remaining Game: @ New Mexico.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Brigham Young (4-2, 5-5) – The Cougars have a chance, but have to beat Utah on the road.  Remaining Game: @ Utah.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

No other teams with 5 losses.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Air Force (2-4, 4-6) – The Falcons have it easier than New Mexico, but can’t afford to lose a game.

Colorado State (2-4, 3-7) – The Rams are looking forward to next year, when TCU comes back!

Nevada-Las Vegas (2-4, 3-7) – The Running Rebels are better that 2005 will be better.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Utah (BCS – Fiesta)

New Mexico (Vegas)

Wyoming (Emerald)

Note: Boise State will take the MWC slot in the Liberty Bowl.