Division I-A Bowl Game Analysis (Long)

[smazza]

mikeg in a hula skirt!

can't wait

[79 Bull]

I think for this year and for our fan base the best thing that could happen if we are eligible would be for the XII to not have a 7th or 8th team eligible and we get invited to the Tangerine against the ACC.  Obviously we would travel well to the game and it would be a great opponent.  The factors against the Bulls are very few hotel rooms sold and little local Orlando spending.

[T-Man]

When we go to a Bull it will be in New Orleans, I also predict that many of us will be calling in sick on that Tuesday (game night!) and Wednesday!

[GarySJ]

I think New Orleans is the least likely destination, just because their game is Dec 14 and they can't wait for us to get eligible. Only if USF beats UC and UM will that even be an option.

Realistically, here's what we're looking at:

1. Hawaii

2. Tangerine

3. Houston, San Francisco, or Silicon Valley, but they'd have to be REALLY desperate

Or, of course, none of the above if we don't beat Cincinnati.

[Guest HowieP1]

I think New Orleans is the least likely destination, just because their game is Dec 14 and they can't wait for us to get eligible. Only if USF beats UC and UM will that even be an option.

Realistically, here's what we're looking at:

1. Hawaii

2. Tangerine

3. Houston, San Francisco, or Silicon Valley, but they'd have to be REALLY desperate

Or, of course, none of the above if we don't beat Cincinnati.

Gary you can scratch off Silicon Valley as they will be taking a MAC team this year.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/football/ncaa/11/16/bc.fbc.mac.bowlgame.ap/index.html

[GarySJ]

I shouldn't even do this after the way we looked at Cincinnati, but... USF can still go to a bowl game, now that Clemson and South Carolina opted to stay home.

The below assumes that Cal and Utah will make the BCS, and that Boise State will go to the Liberty Bowl.

Games that will definitely be open:

WAC #3 or or Motor City Bowl. At least one of these has to come open. Northwestern has a game at Hawaii. NU needs a win to fill the last Big Ten slot; if they lose, the Detroit game (which looked at USF in 2002) is open. If Northwestern wins, Hawaii is eliminated from a bowl, thus freeing one of the three WAC games.

SEC #8 bowl. The SEC's bowl order is a little vague, but this would appear to be the Houston bowl.

Las Vegas. This is the Pac-10 #5 game. The league only has five qualifiers, and Cal is going to the BCS at-large.

The Pac-10 #6 and #7 games have been accounted for. The Silicon Valley game will invite the #3 MAC team, and Navy is going to the Emerald (San Francisco) game.

Games that could be open:

SEC #7 bowl. Open if LSU beats Arkansas. This would probably be the Music City bowl.

Fort Worth. Open if Iowa State or Nebraska loses, though Iowa State is trying to get a waiver to be bowl-eligible if they win the North at 6-5. This would be the Big XII side of the Fort Worth game. USF would probably not go here, since a C-USA team would be the opponent.

Champs Sports (Orlando). Open if both Iowa State and Nebraska lose.

WAC #3 or Motor City Bowl At least one of these will be at-large, but it's possible for BOTH these games to be open, if Hawaii beats Northwestern and then loses to Michigan State.

This does not account for the C-USA #5 bowl, because USF would automatically get that if USF ends up being the fifth and final C-USA qualifier. But there's a good chance TCU or USM will clinch that this week, forcing USF into the at-large pool.

So there will be at least three at-large openings, and as many as seven, with Navy and the #3 MAC team already accounted for. Here are the teams that will be jockeying for these slots, if USF gets eligible:

- Big East extra qualifier (Pitt/UConn)

- MAC #4 team (Toledo/N Ill/Bowl Green/Miami)

- Marshall (which would have to be MAC #5, since 7-win teams get precedence over 6-5 teams)

- Troy State (see above)

- Syracuse, if they beat Boston College

- C-USA #7 (only if USF, USM, and the TCU/Tulane winner all qualify)

- Akron

And that's it. So there just might be room in the postseason, but we need some help at this point... in addition to beating two bowl teams in Memphis and Pitt, which is not a given.

Our best hope is for both USM and TCU to lose this weekend, meaning the C-USA bowls cannot cinch up their five invitees until Dec 4. If TCU or USM wins, we are forced into the at-large pool. (And of course USF has to beat Memphis.)

If nothing else, it's nice to still be able to examine possibilities at this late stage.