Division I-A Bowl Game Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

For those who are interested, here is an analysis of Division I-A bowl games.

Let’s start with our very own…

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Louisville (5-0, 7-1) – The Cardinals are in the driver’s seat for Conference USA as the only team without a conference loss.  Remaining Games: vs TCU, @ Houston, vs Cincinnati, @ Tulane.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Southern Mississippi (4-1, 5-2) – The Golden Eagles’ loss to Cincinnati has made it a challenge for a Liberty Bowl berth.  USM needs to win out and hope Louisville loses.  Remaining Games: @ Memphis, @ TCU, vs UAB, vs California.

Cincinnati (4-2, 5-2) – The Beartcats throttled both Memphis and USM – scoring more than 100 points total in both games.  With such an improved offense, UC might get the one win they need to go to a bowl; but they would have to beat the Bulls or the Cardinals to do it. Remaining Games: vs South Florida, @ Louisville.

Alabama-Birmingham (3-2, 5-3) – The Blazers are imploding, according to their fans.  To be sure, consecutive losses to Tulane and South Florida have hurt, UAB sill only needs one win to get to a bowl game. Remaining Games: vs Houston, @ Army, @ USM.

Memphis (2-3, 5-3) – The Tigers shows spunk in pushing Louisville, scoring 46 points.  While the loss may have been a disappointment, the season can end well if UM wins one more game to go to a bowl.  Vs USM, @ ECU, @ South Florida.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

South Florida (2-3, 3-4) – The Bulls turned their season around against UAB.  However, a bowl game remains far up hill.  USF needs to win 3 of their last 4 to be eligible (with 3 out of their last 4 at home), and may need some help getting an invite.  Remaining Games: vs ECU, @ Cincinnati, vs Memphis, vs Pittsburgh.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Texas Christian (2-4, 4-5) – The Horned Frogs of 2004 are not the same 2003 team that threatened to blow up the BCS.  Two more wins might be darn near impossible to come by this season.  Remaining Games: vs USM, vs Tulane

Tulane (1-4, 3-5) – The Green Wave is last in Conference USA, with their only win over UAB.  Their season looks to be over.  Remaining Games: vs Army, @ TCU, vs Louisville.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Houston (3-3, 3-6) – The Cougars are an impressive .500 in conference play, too bad they lost all three OOC games.

Army (2-4, 2-6) – After wins over UC and USF, the Black Knights seemed to have everything together.  Too bad those are their only wins this year.

East Carolina (2-4, 2-6) – The Pirates’ season won’t end well.  They can play spoiler with games against USF and Memphis.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Louisville (Liberty)

Southern Mississippi (GMAC)

Alabama-Birmingham (New Orleans)

Memphis (Fort Worth)

Cincinnati (Hawaii)

South Florida

[Jim Johnson]

Atlantic Coast Conference

Bowl Eligible

Virginia (4-1, 7-1) – The Cavaliers begin the week in new territory, leading the ACC.  They have a tough road ahead, but could be BCS bound if they win out.  Remaining Games: vs Miami, @ Georgia Tech, @ Va Tech.

Virginia Tech (4-1, 7-2) – The Hokies game against in-state rival UVa could be the unofficial ACC championship game.  Remaining Games: vs Maryland, vs Virginia, @ Miami.

Florida State (6-2, 8-2) – The Seminoles are in third in the ACC, after the UM and Maryland losses.  Can you say Tangerine Bowl?  Remaining Game: vs Florida.

Miami (3-2, 6-2) – I guess the Hurricanes have discovered that Clemson and North Carolina are not Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Welcome to the ACC, Miami, and a berth in the Gator Bowl! Remaining Games: @ Virginia, vs Wake Forest, vs Va Tech.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Georgia Tech (4-3, 5-3) – The Yellow Jackets need just one win, the problem is only one of their remaining games is winnable.  Remaining Games: vs Connecticut, vs UVa, @ Georgia.

Clemson (4-3, 5-4) – The Tigers upset over Miami was critical, and gave them a probable shot at a bowl game.  Of course, they may be traveling to Boise, Idaho.  Remaining Games: @ Duke, vs South Carolina.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

Wake Forest (1-4, 4-4) – The Demon Deacons’ OOC wins helped posture them to win a few to make it.  The problem is their schedule may not help.  Remaining Games: vs UNC, @ Miami, @ Maryland.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

North Carolina State (3-4, 4-5) – The Wolfpack can’t afford to lost another game.  An upset could help them get to a bowl game – but it’s not likely.  Remaining Games: vs Florida State, vs East Carolina.

Maryland (2-4, 4-5) – The like their Carolina cousins, the Terrapins can’t lose another game.  They need another upset to make it.  Remaining Games: @ Va Tech, vs Wake Forest.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

North Carolina State (3-5, 4-6) – The Wolfpack had some penalty and offensive problems – sound familiar?.

Duke (0-6, 1-8) – The Blue Devils have been out for a few weeks now.  They could spoil Clemson’s season, if they can muster their first conference win.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (5 Bowl Slots)

Virginia (BCS – Sugar)

Miami (Gator)

Virginia Tech (Peach)

Florida State (Tangerine)

Clemson (Continental Tire)

Georgia Tech (MPC Computers)

[Jim Johnson]

Big East

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

West Virginia (4-0, 6-1) – The Mountaineers were expected to win the downsized Big East, and are doing so.  Remaining Games: vs BC, @ Pitt.

Boston College (2-1, 6-2) – At least the Eagles can say they made a bowl game in their last Big East season.  Remaining Games: @ Temple, vs Syracuse.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Syracuse (3-1, 5-4) – The Orangemen surprised many with a win over Pitt, now they only need to win one more to make a bowl.  Remaining Games: @ Temple, @ BC.

Pittsburgh (3-2,5-3) – The Panthers loss to the Orangemen could spell the end of their season. Remaining Games: @ Notre Dame, vs West Virginia, @ South Florida.

Connecticut (2-3, 5-3) – The Huskies look to be going bowling in their first year in the Big East, mostly because they play those other Bulls this year.  Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech, vs Buffalo, @ Rutgers.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Rutgers (1-4, 4-5) – The Scarlet Knights are not quite the doormats of yesteryear, but they still aren’t bowling.  Remaining Games: @ Navy, vs UConn.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Temple (0-4, 1-8) – The Owls are looking forward to returning to I-AA ball, a level that will better suit their talent (or lack thereof).  Fitting that their last game is against the other team leaving the Big East.  Remaining Games: vs Syracuse, vs Boston College.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

West Virginia (BCS – Fiesta)

Boston College (Insight)

Syracuse (Continental Tire)

Connecticut

Note: Notre Dame will take the Big East slot in the Gator Bowl.

[Jim Johnson]

Big Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Wisconsin (6-0, 9-0) – The Badgers will be one of four unbeaten teams at the end of the year, but won’t make it to Miami.  Remaining Games: @ Michigan State, @ Iowa.

Michigan (6-0, 8-1) – The Wolverines look like the strongest Big Ten team, but don’t have the chance to knock of the Badgers.  Remaining Games: Northwestern, @ Ohio State.

Iowa (5-1, 7-2) – The Hawkeyes are doing well, and could spoil Wisconsin’s perfect season.  Remaining Games: @ Minnesota, vs Wisconsin.

Ohio State (3-3, 6-3) – The Buckeyes are going bowling, but it won’t be one of the biggies.  Remaining Games: @ Purdue, vs Michigan

Minnesota (3-4, 6-4) – The Gophers have faded this season; thankfully, it’s almost over.  Remaining Game: vs Iowa.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Northwestern (4-2, 5-4) – The Wildcats have looked strong, perhaps a return to a bowl game is in their cards – win two of three and they can make it.  Remaining Games: @ Michigan, vs Illinois, @ Hawaii.

Purdue (2-4, 5-4) – Like Minnesota, the Boilermakers have faded this season.  A turnaround puts them into a bowl game.  At least they get their rivalry game with Indiana to do it. Remaining Games: vs Ohio State, vs Indiana.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Michigan State (3-3, 4-5) – The Spartans lost their first game of the season to Rutgers, but pushed Michigan to 3 overtimes.  Go figure.  With three games remaining, they have to win all three to make it to a lesser bowl.  Remaining Games: vs Wisconsin, @ Penn State, @ Hawaii

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Indiana (1-5, 3-6) – Another season without a bowl game for the Hoosiers.

Illinois (1-6, 3-7) – At least the Illini don’t have to wait too long for the end to come.

Penn State (0-6, 2-7) – Perhaps the Big Ten wasn’t the best place for JoePa.  Would the Big East still want them?

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Wisconsin (BCS – Rose)

Michigan (Capital One)

Iowa (Outback)

Minnesota (Alamo)

Ohio State (Sun)

Purdue (Music City)

Northwestern (Motor City)

[Jim Johnson]

Big Twelve Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Oklahoma (6-0, 9-0) – The Sooners look like they are a virtual shoo-in for the national championship game.  Remaining Games: vs Nebraska, @ Baylor, Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas (5-1, 8-1) – The Longhorns are looking good, and would probably be BCS bound if it weren’t for Utah.  At least they get to play a bowl game in Texas.  Remaining Games: @ Kansas, vs Texas A&M.

Texas Tech (4-2, 6-3) – The Red Raiders are going somewhere, it remains to be seen where.  Remaining Games: @ Texas A&M, vs Oklahoma State.

Texas A&M (4-2, 6-3) – The Aggies high-powered offense will play in the post-season, maybe even in Texas.  Remaining Games: vs Texas Tech, @ Texas.

Oklahoma State (3-3, 6-3) – The Cowboys are assured of a slot, probably in Shreveport.  Remaining Games: vs Baylor, @ Texas Tech.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Iowa State (3-3, 5-4) – Does anyone want to win the Big 12 North? The Cyclones could be the team – having played the hard part of their schedule – but they need help.  Remaining Games: @ Kansas State, vs Missouri.

Nebraska (3-3, 5-4) – The Cornhuskers are not having a typical Nebraska season – and it may not end well.  They may not make a bowl.  Remaining Games: @ Oklahoma, vs Colorado.

Colorado (2-4, 5-4) – The Buffaloes are in the driver’s seat, as they beat Iowa State earlier this year.  Win out, and they get to play Oklahoma.  Remaining Games: vs Kansas State, @ Nebraska, (Big 12 Championship Game).

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than five wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Missouri (2-4, 4-5) – The Tigers could make it to a bowl game, if they can pull an upset.  Remaining Games: vs Kansas, @ Iowa State.

Kansas State (2-4, 4-5) – The Wildcats probably won’t be playing beyond their last two games.  Remaining Games: @ Colorado, vs Iowa State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Kansas (1-5, 3-6) – The Jayhawks remain at the bottom of the Big 12 North.

Baylor (1-5, 3-6) – The Bears have lost 35 straight Big 12 road games.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams (8 Bowl Slots)

Oklahoma (BCS – Orange)

Texas (Cotton)

Colorado (Holiday)

Texas A&M (Alamo)

Oklahoma State (Independence)

Texas Tech (Tangerine)

Iowa State (Houston)

<OPEN SLOT> (MPC Computers)

[Jim Johnson]

Pacific Ten Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Southern California (6-0, 9-0) – The Trojans won a share of the title last year, and the changes to the BCS could give them the whole National Championship this year.  They can virtually pack their bags for Miami.  Remaining Games: vs Arizona, vs Notre Dame, @ UCLA.

California (5-1, 7-1) – While the Bears are the second best team in the Pac 10, they are good enough to win most other BCS conferences.  At least they still get to a BCS bowl.  Remaining Games: @ Washington, vs Stanford, @ Southern Mississippi.

Arizona State (4-2, 7-2) – The Sun Devils are strong this year, but playing in a sound league.  They still should win out. Remaining Games: vs Washington State, @ Arizona.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Oregon (4-2, 5-4) – The Ducks are on the verge of a bowl season this year, but it could come down to their rivalry game.  Remaining Games: vs UCLA, @ Oregon State.

California-Los Angeles (3-3, 5-4) – The Bruins could be the fifth team heading to a bowl game from the Pac-10, if they can win on the road.  Remaining Games: @ Oregon, vs Southern Cal.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Oregon State (3-3, 4-5) – The Beavers might be able to do it, but they need to win out to make it.  Remaining Games: @ Stanford, vs Oregon.

Stanford (2-4, 4-5) – The Cardinal need to win out, but the schedule is next to impossible.  Remaining Games: vs Oregon State, @ California.

Washington State (2-4, 4-5) – The Wildcats have a tough road ahead, winning out may be a big challenge.  Remaining Games: @ Arizona State, vs Washington.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Arizona (1-5, 2-7) – Mike Stoops hasn’t turned around these wildcats yet.

Washington (0-6, 1-8) – What can probation do to a team?  The Huskies know.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Southern California (BCS – Orange)

California (BCS – Rose)

Arizona State (Holiday)

Oregon (Sun)

<OPEN SLOT> (Insight)

<OPEN SLOT> (Vegas)

<OPEN SLOT> (Silicon Valley)

<OPEN SLOT> (Emerald)

[Jim Johnson]

Southeastern Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Auburn (6-0, 9-0) – The Tigers are looking at an undefeated season, too bad they will still be #3.  Remaining Games: vs Georgia, @ Alabama.

Tennessee (5-1, 7-2) – The Volunteers are in the drivers’ seat, with a win over Georgia.  Remaining Games: @ Vanderbilt, Kentucky.

Georgia (6-1, 8-1) – The Bulldogs are facing a tough road, needing either Vandy or Kentucky to beat Tennessee.  Not gonna happen.  Remaining Games: @ Auburn, vs Georgia Tech.

Louisiana State (3-2, 6-2) – The Tigers were National Champs last year, now their coach may be heading to the NFL.  Remaining Games: vs Alabama, vs Mississippi, @ Arkansas.

South Carolina (4-3. 6-3) – The Gamecocks made it back to a bowl this year, thanks to South Florida.  Remaining Games: @ Florida, @ Clemson.

Alabama (3-3, 6-3) – The Crimson Tide have resurfaced from probation and Shula has them bowl bound.  Remaining Games: @ LSU, vs Auburn.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Florida (3-4, 5-4) – The Gators had a first half scare from Vandy, before waking up.  They have a tough road ahead, and need to win at home to make it to a bowl.  Imagine the howls from Gainesville if this doesn’t happen!  Remaining Games: vs South Carolina, @ Florida State.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Mississippi – (2-3, 3-5) The Rebels are on the verge of being out of the post season.  Remaining Games: @ Arkansas, @ LSU, vs Mississippi State.

Arkansas (1-4, 3-5) – The Razorbacks could be out of the bowl season, if they lose any more games, luckily they have an easy schedule.  Remaining Games: vs Mississippi, @ Mississippi State, vs Louisiana State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Mississippi State (2-4, 3-6) – Despite a shocking win over Florida, the Bulldogs couldn’t pull the season out for Croom.

Vanderbilt (1-5, 2-7) – At least the Commodores are not in last place!

Kentucky (0-6, 1-8) – The Wildcats may not win an SEC game this season.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Auburn (BCS – Sugar)

Tennessee (Capitol One)

Louisiana State (Cotton)

Georgia (Outback)

Alabama (Peach)

South Carolina (Music City)

Florida (Independence)

Arkansas (Houston)

[Jim Johnson]

I-A Independents

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Navy (7-2) – The Midshipmen will go bowling!  Remaining Games: vs Rutgers, vs Army.

Notre Dame – The Fighting Irish made it to a bowl, again.  Remaining Games: vs Pittsburgh, @ Southern Cal.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Navy

Notre Dame (Gator)

[Jim Johnson]

Mid-American Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Toledo (6-1, 7-3) – The Rockets look strong, beating a ranked Northern Illinois on national television.  They could be bound for Mobile.  Remaining Games:  vs Bowling Green.

Miami (5-1, 6-3) – The Red Hawks may win the MAC again this year, if they can beat the best of the MAC West. Remaining Games: @ WMU, @ Akron.

Bowling Green (5-1, 7-2) – The Falcons are strong, and with a few open slots, they may actually get to a bowl game.  Their game against Toledo could decide the MAC West.  Remaining Games: vs Marshall, @ Toledo.

Northern Illinois (6-1, 7-3) – The Huskies have looked strong, but came up short against Toledo.  Maybe they can take one of the open slots somewhere.  Remaining Games: @ EMU.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Akron (5-1, 5-4) – The Zips have moved through the MAC, and could win the East if they can beat Miami – at least they play at home.  Remaining Games: @ Ohio, vs Miami.

Marshall (5-1, 5-4) – The Thundering Herd will get to 6 wins, but it might not be enough to do go bowling.  At least C-USA has more bowl tie- ins next year!!  Remaining Games: @ Bowling Green, vs WMU.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Eastern Michigan (4-2, 4-5) – The Eagles have managed to do well, but not enough to make it to a bowl game.  Remaining Games: @ Kent State, vs Northern Illinois.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Kent State (2-4, 3-6) – The Golden Flashes are among the teams that won’t make it to a bowl game.  At least the MAC is better than the Sun Belt.

Central Michigan (2-4, 3-6) – The Chippewas are consistently on the Bottom 10 list.

Ohio (2-5, 4-6) – The Bobcats almost beat Pitt, but it wasn’t enough.

Ball State (1-5, 1-8) – The Cardinals…

Buffalo (1-6, 1-8) – The Bulls have made it out of the MAC cellar, thanks to a visit from UCF.

Western Michigan (0-6, 1-8) – The Broncos finished where everyone expected them to be.

Central Florida (0-6, 0-9) – The Knights have the longest losing streak in the nation.  Will O’Leary manage to win one this year?  We all know C-USA will be harder.  Remaining Games: @ Ball State, vs Kent State.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Miami (GMAC)

Toledo (Motor City)

Northern Illinois (At Large)

Bowling Green (At Large)

Akron

Marshall

[Jim Johnson]

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Utah (5-0, 9-0) – Will the Utes get to play in a BCS Bowl? They are currently #7, but it’s not far down to Tempe – maybe the Fiesta Bowl will realize the benefits of selecting a mid-major.  Remaining Games: @ Wyoming, vs BYU.

Wyoming (3-2, 6-3) – The Cowboys have made it to a bowl game.  Is the end of the world coming?  Remaining Games: vs Utah, @ New Mexico.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Brigham Young (4-1, 5-4) – The Cougars have a chance, but get to play Utah on the road.  Remaining Games: vs New Mexico, @ Utah.

New Mexico (3-2, 5-4) – The Lobos might make it, but they have a challenge ahead.  Remaining Games: @ BYU, vs Wyoming.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Air Force (2-3, 4-5) – The Falcons have it easier than New Mexico, but can’t afford to lose a game.  Remaining Games: vs San Diego State, vs Colorado State.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Colorado State (2-3, 3-6) – The Rams are looking forward to next year, when TCU comes back!

Nevada-Las Vegas (1-4, 2-7) – The Running Rebels are better that 2005 will be better.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Utah (BCS – Fiesta)

New Mexico (Vegas)

BYU (Emerald)

Wyoming

Note: Boise State will take the MWC slot in the Liberty Bowl.