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USC's loss to Stanford doesn't eliminate the Trojans

By Brad Edwards

Special to ESPN.com

(Archive)

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Updated: October 9, 2007, 4:22 PM ET

USC was sacked by Stanford but it could be a minor setback for the Trojans.

After losing to Stanford as a 41-point favorite on Saturday, USC found itself perched at No. 7 in both polls of BCS significance on Sunday. The coaches' poll and the Harris poll, each of which accounts for one-third of the formula that determines the national championship game participants, dropped the Trojans only six spots after their monumental loss. The AP poll, which is no longer part of the BCS equation, dropped them from No. 2 to No. 10.

While there's never a guarantee that a team with one loss will have a chance to play for the national title, USC can already draw encouragement from not being sent to the back of the line of once-beaten teams. With a remaining schedule that includes road trips to No. 9 Oregon, No. 2 Cal and No. 14 Arizona State, the Trojans have an opportunity to wash away much of the stench from Saturday's embarrassing defeat.

And at the rate top-10 teams have been falling in college football (nine in the last two weeks), it's not hard to envision USC working its way up another five spots by the start of December. The big question, which can't be answered today, is how voters would ultimately weigh the Stanford loss if forced to decide between the Trojans and some other team for a spot in the national championship game. But at least for now, those voters don't seem to be making a big deal of it.

The BCS computers, however, have a different take. Three of them dropped USC all the way out of the top 20, and that will certainly hold the Trojans back until they can re-establish themselves with a quality victory or two. But don't be deceived by what you see when the official BCS standings make their debut on Sunday. Respect in the polls is what matters most on the road to the BCS, so the Trojans are much closer to the top than they may appear.

Mock BCS standings

Team Average

1. LSU 1.000

2. California .912

3. Ohio State .907

4. Boston College .827

5. South Florida .826

6. Missouri .683

7. South Carolina .654

8. Virginia Tech .596

9. West Virginia .5902

10. Oregon .5899

Others of note: (12) Oklahoma, (13) USC, (20) Hawaii

With both polls and five of the six computer ratings now available, here's a glimpse at what the BCS standings would look like this week. LSU is the clear-cut No. 1 team. The Tigers are top-ranked on all but two ballots in the coaches' poll and in all but one computer, which rounds up to a seemingly perfect BCS average. Cal and Ohio State are basically in a dead heat for second. They have equal computer scores after the high and low rankings are thrown out, so the Bears' narrow advantage over the Buckeyes comes from the polls.

If both teams go undefeated the rest of the way (along with LSU), Cal is likely to remain in the No. 2 spot in the BCS. The Bears' computer rankings will benefit more from the remaining schedule than the Buckeyes' will, so OSU needs to get past Cal (or LSU) in both polls to have a chance of playing for the national title.

• South Florida, on average, is ranked as the second-best team by the computers. The Anderson & Hester ratings have the Bulls at No. 1, and every other computer has them ranked second or third.

• The human voters like Oklahoma, but the computer ratings say Missouri is the best team in the Big 12. The Tigers are ranked in the top five of four computers, which boosts them to sixth in the BCS. The Sooners, in contrast, have a best computer ranking of 18th and don't even appear in the top 25 of some ratings. Therefore, OU is all the way down at No. 12 in the mock standings.

Hawaii in BCS computers

                                Ranking  SOS

Colley                       30th 130th

Billingsley                  34th N/A

Anderson & Hester    35th 119th

Sagarin             54th      170th

Massey                     76       218

• Despite being ranked 16th in both polls, Hawaii's BCS ranking is currently 20 because the Warriors are nowhere to be found in the computers. That, of course, is a reflection of schedule strength, or lack thereof. Some of the computers rank more than just the 119 teams in the Bowl Subdivision (I-A) and have Hawaii's schedule ranked as weaker than several Championship Subdivision (I-AA) teams. Kenneth Massey's computer even has some Division II schools ahead of the Warriors right now.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher at ESPN. His Road to the BCS appears weekly during the season.

[Mama_Bull]

"• South Florida, on average, is ranked as the second-best team by the computers. The Anderson & Hester ratings have the Bulls at No. 1, and every other computer has them ranked second or third."

That's the first time I've seen any ranking by Anderson & Hester for any team this year. Peter Wolfe also hasn't released his computer rankings to the public.

[Velcro]

We have the computers on our side... for now.  Not sure how the SOS #'s will work out down the road, but if we keep winning, it will be interesting to see.

[kastofsna]

unfortunately, while our SOS is looking good now, the other teams in contention will start to face better and better teams as the season progresses, so if they keep winning too, then it'll be tough for us to compete with them in that regard. of course, with the season going the way it is, who knows, all of them could lose. but then again, there's no reason to think that we won't be one of those top teams that lose.

[FazaUSF]

LSU still plays #17 Kentucky, #22 Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Cal still plays #14 ASU and #10 USC.

OSU has Penn State, #19 Wisconsin, #18 Illionois, and Michigan.

BC has #12 Va Tech, #21 FSU, Maryland, and Clemson.

Oklahoma still plays #11 Missouri.

Basically, we are the undefeated team with the easiest road to the NC game, in my opinion. That doesn't mean we won't lay an egg somewhere along the line, but the rest of the top 6 have to go through some tough teams. The USC and Cal game will either knock USC totally out, or bring Cal down and add to the list of 1-loss teams making an argument for the big game. The tough schedules also affect our future BCS rankings, because if we are to stay unbeaten, we only play #15 Cincy.

IMO, the team most vulnerable is OSU. The next most vulnerable is us, after seeing FAU, because all of our competition will become more motivated now that we're the hunted.

At least both ESPN analysts have us in a BCS bowl - Sugar or Orange - as the only Big East rep. That would be incredible... and it would be a heck of a lot of pressure too!

[MechanicalBull]

We have the computers on our side... for now.  Not sure how the SOS #'s will work out down the road, but if we keep winning, it will be interesting to see.

Hope for UConn and Cincy are ranked when we play them.  Louisville and Rutgers - disappointning!

[mw98gt]

I think cincy has a good chance to be undefeated and perhaps a top 10 when we met, and perhaps uconn will be cracking the 25.

[Velcro]

who does uconn play this week and next?  i think their time is running out.  they won't crack the top 25. 

[Velcro]

conn @ virginia this week... that isn't a gimmee

[Velcro]

Then Louisville vs Conn.

I still think LVille can win any game on the schedule, or lose any game...

So I'm fairly certain UConn will not be 7-0 when we roll into town.