A growing number of stories out there about how USF will not

[Brad]

A growing number of stories out there about how USF will not a shot a the national title...using USF's early success and high rankings to point out the problems with the pre-season poll and with the BCS system (again).  Here is the last of three or four I have read:

USF faces uncertain BCS fate

By Charles Elmore

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Friday, October 05, 2007

For the moment, it's an unadulterated feel-good story. Never ranked before this season, undefeated South Florida travels to Florida Atlantic on Saturday as the state's latest entry into the national top 10.

After a rollicking prime-time TV win over West Virginia, the biggest victory in its history, USF has rocketed to its highest perch, No. 6 in the AP poll, and No. 9 in the coaches poll.

But if South Florida keeps winning, college football is inching toward an uncomfortable quandary.

USF is on course to cause major indigestion for the already dyspeptic system that's supposed to sort out rankings, bowl assignments and national title contenders.

Teams ranked ahead of them will necessarily lose. USC plays Cal. Ohio State faces Wisconsin. And the Bulls already have won the two games that appeared the toughest on their schedule, Auburn and West Virginia. They're likely to be favored the rest of the way. Louisville has lost twice. Rutgers fell to Maryland.

So what do voters do? Do they hand USF a glass slipper as a Cinderella national title hopeful? Or lead it into a glass ceiling? That's the invisible barrier that traditionally keeps upstarts like, say, an 11-year-old program from Tampa out of the national championship picture.

Utah, Tulane and Marshall became well acquainted with that ceiling in recent years. So did Boise State. But USF is supposed to be different, right? It has a Big East conference affiliation, with a big-time bowl berth. Voters will give all that due weight, no? Don't be too quick to bet against the glass ceiling.

Jim Walden, a Harris poll voter, Washington State broadcaster and former WSU coach who was once a University of Miami assistant, says he is prepared to give the Bulls some love if they continue to impress. He's not so sure how far others are willing to go. The Harris poll is part of the official formula that determines the national championship pairing.

"If there's a choice between an Ohio State or an LSU with one loss, and a 12-0 South Florida, South Florida is probably not going to go to the national title game," Walden said. "I'd be inclined to vote South Florida No. 2 if you had two undefeated teams left. I'm impressed by what (coach) Jim Leavitt has done there. But I don't know how many others would do that."

The first Harris poll of the season seems to back up his assessment. Never mind that USF beat Auburn at Auburn, and the Tigers beat Florida in The Swamp. Florida is ranked No. 8. USF is 10.

Another Harris voter, Dolphins analyst and former tight end Jim Mandich, ranks the Bulls No. 9, a rung behind the Gators.

"Very impressive team," Mandich wrote by e-mail. "Big wins against Auburn and West Va. I knock them down a notch because I don't think they beat the Florida Gators if they played. Just my opinion."

Other polls are all over the place. The AP poll confers a No. 6 ranking to USF and pegs Florida ninth. The coaches poll makes it Gators at No. 7 and USF at No. 9.

USF quarterback Matt Grothe called it a "pretty crazy scene. I thought we'd be nine or 10, but I never expected six in the AP poll. All the upsets in the top 10, and Auburn's win in The Swamp, really helped us."

His coach, Leavitt, is wasting little breath at this point on the question of whether the Bulls will get a fair shot at a national title. The school needs a Big East title first.

"We realize we just started and we're good enough to beat four teams and that's it," Leavitt said.

Everyone is getting a good idea of what USF's defense can do, but it might not hurt with voters if the Bulls flexed a little more muscle on offense, said Charles Arbuckle, an ESPNU analyst who will cover the FAU-USF game.

"I really think people have come to understand South Florida is the real deal," said Arbuckle, a former Colts teammate of Jesse Hester, father of USF receiver Jesse Hester Jr. of Belle Glade. "But they can't rely on the defense to come up with five or six turnovers every game. At some point, you'd like to see the offense break out."

West Virginia outgained USF 436 yards to 273 in the Bulls' 21-13 victory before the first sellout crowd in program history at Raymond James Stadium last week.

But USF's defense forced six turnovers, and the Bulls' offense made just enough plays to win.

It's a season that deserves a chance at a glass slipper. Until college football adopts a playoff, the Bulls are likely to be the latest team to bump into a transparent ceiling.

Link

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A couple interesting excerpts...

"Big wins against Auburn and West Va. I knock them down a notch because I don't think they beat the Florida Gators if they played. Just my opinion."

"But they can't rely on the defense to come up with five or six turnovers every game. At some point, you'd like to see the offense break out."

[Bull Matrix]

Cant people see that UF is not that good this year??? Their defense is terrible, and they really dont have a true running game. UF may lose about 3 to 4 games this year, so how many are still going to be on the UF bandwagon after that???

[Bullmeister]

This is a no issue - We only have one game left this year and that is Florida Atlantic.

[USF-PMR]

Everyone wants to knock the best rider off the horse.  We will be there at years end - wait and see.

[bull_roarer]

So let me get this straight - if you have a high powered offense that puts up tons of points and a defense like swiss cheese, you're all good. If you have a stifling defense and an offense that, while it isn't dazzling, puts up enough points against good defenses (WVU) and routes lesser defenses (UNC) 37-10 (w/ their td coming against our 3rd string w/ a minute left, btw.) then you're not good enough.  This is ridiculous. If they can keep us out after an undefeated season(God willing) which will have featured at least 3 top 25 wins and a 1 or 2 loss team gets to go to the NC game, then we should really forget about NCs because they are truly meaningless.

[ETKbull]

Thats why College Football needs a playoff system.  It would not suprise me if we went undefeated and did not get a shot at the title.  Look at what happened to Auburn a couple of years ago as an example.

[Grunge]

It's simple.  If we play sloppy and commit turnovers, I don't think we give the voters any incentive to move us up.  If our offense starts to click and we start beating teams by 2-3 touchdowns, I don't see why they wouldn't give us a shot at the end of the season.  It's a big if, though because we still have a lot of games to play.

[Rocky Style]

What Grunge said.  I think once this team starts clicking on offense and stops making mistakes you are not going to be able to deny them should they go undefeated.

[CCCballboy]

I can understand a 1 loss traditional power jumping a potentially undefeated USF team for a NC game; however, if a 2 loss team jumps USF, then you know something is just flat out wrong. 

[Greg Auman]

a two-loss team won't jump any undefeated team from a BCS conference. i can categorically tell you a two-loss team will not be chosen over an undefeated team from a credible conference. i don't think you'll see this current postseason format play out with a two-loss team in a national championship game.