Been loving the win, but gotta question CJL on something

[BJ]

In the third, that 4th and 1 call with a 14-3 lead on our own 35...why did Jim go for this?  It worked, so I haven't seen it mentioned, but if it hadn't and led to WVU coming back to win, that would be the talk of the boards I'm sure.  I just think it was a bad decision

[___ Eats It]

In the third, that 4th and 1 call with a 14-3 lead on our own 35...why did Jim go for this?  It worked, so I haven't seen it mentioned, but if it hadn't and led to WVU coming back to win, that would be the talk of the boards I'm sure.  I just think it was a bad decision

It would have been a bad decision, but it wasn't. 

Listen, we rip him for being conservative in the 2nd half, then want him to be MORE conservative when he wasn't?

Guys, it worked.  We won.  In Jim I Trust.

[USFMikeB]

Gotta agree with you on that.  I was very concerned when he called that, and the TV crew was wondering what he was doing as well.  Fortunately, it worked, and didn't come back to bite us.

[BJ]

In the third, that 4th and 1 call with a 14-3 lead on our own 35...why did Jim go for this?  It worked, so I haven't seen it mentioned, but if it hadn't and led to WVU coming back to win, that would be the talk of the boards I'm sure.  I just think it was a bad decision

It would have been a bad decision, but it wasn't. 

Listen, we rip him for being conservative in the 2nd half, then want him to be MORE conservative when he wasn't?

Guys, it worked.  We won.  In Jim I Trust.

Just because the end result is good doesn't mean it was a good decision.

I haven't ripped the conservativeness of CJL at all (not that I always agree with the conservativeness), but his conservative play calling and conservative strategic decisions (i.e. the fourth down play and the decision to go for it on fourth down in general, respectively) are two very different things

[Guest]

It was more 4th and inches, not really 4th and a yard... I knew when they were going for it that all it would be was Grothe falling forward.

[BJ]

It was more 4th and inches, not really 4th and a yard... I knew when they were going for it that all it would be was Grothe falling forward.

Even still, it was the 3rd, a two-score game, and pretty deep in our own territory. It's not as if Grothe hasn't ever been stopped for a loss.

I'm not trying to make this a bigger deal than it is. I trust Jim, but I do think this was a bad decision.

[Guest]

It was more 4th and inches, not really 4th and a yard... I knew when they were going for it that all it would be was Grothe falling forward.

Even still, it was the 3rd, a two-score game, and pretty deep in our own territory. It's not as if Grothe hasn't ever been stopped for a loss.

I'm not trying to make this a bigger deal than it is. I trust Jim, but I do think this was a bad decision.

It was the first drive of the 3rd quarter, too... and CJL wanted to keep the drive going.

Sometimes you have to take a chances...  CJL didn't really get conservative until USF was up 21-3 after that drive... He was opening up the playbook before that -- USF just wasn't always executing.

[Bull Dozer]

It was a calculated risk as the defense had been lights out to that point and was fresh from the half time break.  Yes it was a big risk but if you cant pick up a few inches in the biggest game in your schools history you dont deserve to win (and prolly aren't going to). CJL sent a message to his defense that he knew they would not be denied that night with the call. 

[Velcro]

4th and inches with Grothe sneaking is as automatic as anything we do.

[USFPDiddy]

In the third, that 4th and 1 call with a 14-3 lead on our own 35...why did Jim go for this?  It worked, so I haven't seen it mentioned, but if it hadn't and led to WVU coming back to win, that would be the talk of the boards I'm sure.  I just think it was a bad decision

You think wrong most likely.  While the trend to date has been to punt in this situation, ESPN's computer model accuscore has simulated 10000+ short yardage situations.  If teams go for it on 4th down here, they'll convert about 75% of the time.  However, if you punt it away, the opposing offense will have a 30% chance of scoring..  You actually reduce your opponent's chance of scoring by 5% every single time you go for it in this situation.  Also, while your opponent will probably score if you fail to convert it, that isn't 100% likely either...so it's probably more than a 5% chance.

Now keep in mind, these are stats for NFL games, but remember that converting a 4th down not only increases your own opportunity to score, it delays or steals a possession from your opponent.  Unless our offense is terrible, Leavitt made a call that raised our chances of winning.

WVU was very pressured on their last drive.  Had they been given more time on it because we punted earlier, they might not have been stopped.  Sure, we might have won anyway, but Leavitt did the right thing per statistics...it's hard to argue with a call like that.