UNC Game Breakdown

[JoeB]

Here is my breakdown of the North Carolina game.  Feel free to add your comments below.

UNC Rushing vs USF Against the Run:  Advantage USF.  Carolina is only averaging 80 yards per game running the ball, and the average per rush is ridiculously small.  Somewhat of a mystery of a Butch Davis coached team.  USF on the other hand, plays the run about as good as any team defensively.  Nothing new here from the boys from the South.

USF Rushing vs UNC Against the Run:  Advantage USF.  The Bulls seem to incorporate the run to set up the pass, and even though the numbers aren't spectacular.  At times its been effective.  UNC has given up 150 yards on the ground to James Madison and 197 to ACC Powerhouse Virginia.  Bulls should be on parade Saturday afternoon with about 200 yards rushing in my estimation.

UNC Passing Game vs USF Against the Pass:  Advantage Even.  I'm tempted to give the advantage to Mike Jenkins and company, but until I see UNC throw the ball I'll leave it as a push.  The Tarheels put up some gaudy numbers through the air, but this might be the best Pass Defense they see all year.

USF Passing Game vs UNC Against the Pass:  Advantage USF.  UNC gave up 406 yards to East Carolina.  What else needs to be said?  Plus the completion percentage is right around 67% for UNC's D.  Not good.  Grothe has many targets, and he's OK dinking and dunking his way down the field at a 70% clip.

Special Teams:  Advantage UNC.  While the punting situation at USF might be better than Week 1, the FG Team is still scary.  Until that gets rectified, I'll go with UNC on Special teams.  Also, UNC has returned a punt for a TD already this year, so this backs it up for their return game.

Coaching:  Advantage Even.  Both coaches are well respected in the industry, so its doubtful it will have any effect on the game.

Intangibles:  Advantage USF.  USF has a fairly young team, but when you compare it to UNC its not even close.  The Tarheels are young at almost every position.  The QB is a Redshirt Freshman, and the USF D will dictate things on Saturday.  It won't be a hostile environment with only 40,000 fans, but RayJay is indeed a home field advantage.  Since Grothe has been the starter at QB, USF has won all of their early start time games (noon or before).  The Bulls have beaten UNC, Pitt, Syracuse, and WVU with noon start times.  Also, USF hammered ECU in an early start bowl game last year (11 AM).  Pretty much the same ECU team that Carolina has already lost to this season. 

Prediction:  It will be a close game relatively speaking for about 3 quarters.  USF should pull away in the second half.  The running game will take its toll on UNC, as they are already the worst team with time of possession this season.  Not a good stat for your defense, as the offense only controls the ball a whopping 23 minutes per game.  USF isn't much better at 28 minutes per game, but they will get it in gear this weekend when the Tarheels come a calling.

                                    USF  31   

                                    UNC  17

 

[Bullpride08]

Good breakdown JoeB.

Another key thing is UNC's defensive backfield has a senior that missed last year with an injury playing with three new starters, all that are sophomores or younger and two that hadn't seen college action before.  If and when they go nickel it's a true freshman.....be patient and these guys will give you a lot.

You got it about right....I will mention a few other intangibles on our side.  First, this is the first time UNC will venture outside NC, they played UVA and JMU at home, and ECU an hour or so east at ECU.  A young team traveling south in the heat, and yes the heat matter since the heat wave broke in the mid-atlantic about 3 weeks ago, the past week and a half Raleigh has been averaging 76 degrees in the day and 64 at night with about low humidity.  USF has lost two home games the past two seasons both to top 12 opponents and they came down to the fourth quarter (WVU 05, Rutgers 06).  So the 40k or so to see this game won't be the craziest but possibly not much smaller or louder then what they encountered at ECU.

Good score prediction.  UNC will move the ball and they will probably score, but with such a porous defense we should do it more.  We need to continue creating turnovers.

[BDYZR]

So, just for grins and giggles, which team would you give the special teams advantage to USF?

Kick-off coverage is ok.

Kick return is good.

Punting was ok last game.

Punt coverage, a couple of breakdowns, but adequate.

So that brings us to... FIELD GOALS. I know that answer.

GO BULLS

FINISH STRONG!

[BULLfreak]

Very good

I am going to say 41-20 USF BULLS

[Velcro]

Very good

I am going to say 41-20 USF BULLS

Just Curious...

What combination of scoring leads us to get 41 pts? 

6 TD's and 1 missed XP?

5 TD's and 2 FG's?

Other?

Having a bad kicking game can make that 41 very tough to get 

[BULLfreak]

5 TD and 2 FG

I'm holding on to Hope when it comes to the kicking game

[Velcro]

I'm with ya... I'm curious to see how Alvarado responds after the Auburn game.  He made the big kick to tie it, despite missing 4 other kicks.