John Wilner: A memo to West Virginia and Florida fans

[MarketingGuy]

http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/collegesports/2007/09/19/my-ap-poll-a-memo-to-west-virginia-and-florida-fans-and-anyone-else-who-think-im-an-idiot/

In its guidelines for voters, the Associated Press instructs: “Don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week.†I take that to heart, especially early in the season as we figure out which teams are good and bad.

For example: South Florida.

After USF won at Auburn, I ranked the Bulls No. 10 because I felt that was a really good win, a better win than most teams could claim after two weeks, certainly the best win for the season for the Big East.

But then Auburn lost at home to Mississippi State, which gave me more a better sense as to how good Auburn was and, in turn, how to evaluate USF’s win.

So even though the Bulls did not play last week, I dropped them six or eight spots: beating Auburn at Auburn wasn’t quite as impressive as I thought.

Here’s how this all relates to your beloved Mountaineers:

I think your team is going to have a terrific season  a 13-0 or 12-1 season  and that was reflected in my preseason poll, in which I had West Virginia ranked No. 3. (Here’s the proof.)

But at this point, as they meander through this cupcake non-conference schedule, I don’t think the Mountaineers deserve to be ranked No. 5, because they don’t have the results to justify it.

(That’s also why, until it beat Washington, I didn’t have Ohio State in my top-25.)

In my system, teams don’t necessary keep moving up if they keep winning. It depends largely on who you beat, with more weight given to quality wins and losses as each week passes.

Now, if all goes as I projected when I filled out the preseason ballot, then the Mountaineers will keep winning, they will eventually collect some quality wins (at USF, at Rutgers, UL and Cincy), I’ll move them up, and they’ll finish No. 3 in the nation.

:thumbsdown:

[usfgrad84]

So in other words.  He really has no idea where to rank anyone until about 5 or 6 games into the season.

It's all just guess work and a popularity contest for the voters until things shake out and the teams get into the heart of their schedules.  At least there seems to be some thought behind this guys rankings.  I think we'll know just how good our team is after these next 2 games.

[Jihme]

the polls are all gay.  let's just worry about where we finish in the conference, so we go to a better bowl.

something will happen along the lines of 4 undefeated teams, and then playoffs will eventually come.

[Kyle]

I still think that winning at Auburn at night is still lost on some people...check their record playing at home at night...the Miss St. loss does hurt us a bit, no doubt, but it was still Jordan-Hare at night.

The things I don't like about this guy's poll:

1. he's still got App St. ranked. #23...if you really think App St. is the #23 team in the county you're a hypocrite. You just said USF's win was dilluted by the fact that Auburn might not be very good...well, how about Michigan? Remember their encore performance? They got trounced by Oregon.

2. He's got WVU at #15 but Wisconsin at #5. The same Wisconsin team that struggled with the Citadel and UNLV. If you think Wisconsin's schedule to date is significantly better than that of WVU, you're dillusional.

Here's his poll if anyone is interested:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/collegefootball_front/votes/WILNER.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME

[Bulls 8_va]

I can see what hes talking about.  But i think he's going a little too far with it.  IMO

GO BULLS!!!

[Sunil]

Guy has a point...but a problem with alot of these voters is there lack of perspective. 2 Examples:

Example 1: Basing strength of games on individual opinon rather than the overall poll.

Let's say that a voter had his individual ballot rank West Virginia #20, but the overall AP rates them at #5

Theoretically, According to the poll....if #23 USF knocks off West Virginia...the individual should think "well, they beat the #5 team in the country...they deserve a bump into the high teens" But what many voters do is say "I don't care if AP had them rated at #5...I never thought they were better than 20..so a USF win really isn't that impressive." That kind of logic is bogus.

Example 2: Continuously penalizing or rewarding teams for their opponent's future performance.

If you beat a team that was in the top 5 in both the individual ballot and overall poll.

Let's say USF beat WVU...that particular week USF should see a boost in their own ranking. But then, suppose WVU subsequently loses 3 more games. According to the logic of Jon Wilner...a pollster has a right to LOWER USF in the poll based on West Virginia's future performance. By that logic, if WVU were to lose to USF as their only loss...they could be vaulted in the rankings based on USF's performance. That's wacky rationale. Once the game is over..it should be over. The team was ranked where they were when the game took place...that's all. You can't take a loss in the first game of the year..and at the end of the year lobby to increase your ranking just because your loss turned out to be from a surprise BCS bowl school.

Pollsters should have the right to determine their own ballots...but strength of schedule determinations can't just minimize the value of the overall poll. Moreover, once a game is finished...the game is over. You shouldn't be able to lower or boost a team based on an opponent's performance.

[crambone]

I don't like this guy at all.

[USF Colby]

I agree with some of his stuff. Oregon in the top 10 is a good move, Oregon is the west coasts West Virginia and most of the Pac 10 doesn't play defense so they should be able to tear a bunch of teams apart. Plus don't they get the USC game at home this year? I think he moved Alabama way too high, I have Alabama ranked fairly high myself but not #6. I have South Carolina in my top 10 but ranking them #4 before they play LSU is foolish. I love their win over Georgia not going to lie I have them higher than most people but their not #4 yet. I like the fact that he does have Cincinnati ranked though.

Does this guy vote in the AP poll?

[MarketingGuy]

I don't like this guy at all.

I'm on the fence.... I agree with part of it.. but not all of it.

[Who'sYourData?]

I don't like this guy at all.

Huh?

We struggled to beat an FCS division team, then beat Auburn in overtime.  Auburn then loses to Mississippi State.  And he still has us ranked #17.  Then remember that about one third of AP voters still don't have us anywhere on their poll. 

He's ok in my book.