ESPN: USF 58th

[ctbrown24]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2947591

The upstart Bulls don't have as long of a track record, but their win percentage over this time frame is 62 percent, good enough to rank them at No. 29 in winning percentage. This is one of those surging programs in terms of national respect, and it has been that way since South Florida lit up No. 9 Louisville 45-14 two years ago. If we do this ranking again in another two years, USF probably will be 20 places higher.

[Guest]

That makes sense... when looking back over the ten year period.

[crambone]

lol the thread title kind of threw me off...

[Sunil]

I think that's a fair assessment given our limited history in D-1A. It's hard to crack the top 50 just yet without more major wins, a conference title, or major bowl berth. Hopefully all will come this year.

[GetAHobby]

That's pretty good given the time frame in which they are ranking.

[Al]

Definitely the range that USF falls into at this time.  But check out this article by Feldman and his thoughts on who of this group will make big jump in the rankings.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=feldman_bruce&id=2947224

There is a nether region of programs in college football which tend to be just decent enough that their coaches retain their jobs. Yet these teams never get over the proverbial hump and make it to a bowl game you'd watch for more than 10 minutes. That's the profile of many of these programs ranked from 51 to 75.

AP Photo/Gerry Broome

Can Butch Davis turn North Carolina into a top-tier program?

They usually teeter from "pretty good" to "mediocre" depending on the season and are rarely much better or worse than that. It's a strange lot in life. The big question is: Can any of them ever jump the tracks and move up to legitimate heavyweight status where they are the perennial top-20 fixtures that blue-chippers grow up rooting for?

That kind of leap is actually very rare. Over the last 20 years, probably a half-dozen afterthought programs rose up -- and stayed with the big boys.

Virginia Tech did it, although it took an enormous amount of faith from the Hokies' brass not to pull the plug on Frank Beamer. K-State did it too. So did Wisconsin and Louisville. Boise State and TCU may well be doing it, but it might be a bit premature to say for certain.

The tricky part is sometimes a program makes waves, but really it is only a stepping-stone for the coach to land a job with a higher-profile school, and ultimately, that program starts to slide again. (You'll see a few flashes in the pan on this list.)

The key to establishing your worth comes on the recruiting trail, where an upstart program must not only scout unheralded gems to build the team, but also fend off traditional powerhouses when a blue-chipper comes from its backyard. Take Minnesota for instance: Glen Mason got the Gophers to respectability, built mostly on quality Ohio kids that Ohio State had passed over and a handful of talented Florida guys who weren't recruited by that state's big three.

Trouble is, many of the best homegrown players have left Minnesota. James Laurinaitis, arguably the country's top linebacker, ended up at Ohio State, while Notre Dame has plucked a bunch of other top players from the area. New Gophers head man Tim Brewster is making some noise as a recruiter thus far, but his first major test will be keeping touted in-state wide receiver Michael Floyd at home.

According to a story in this weekend's Star-Tribune, Floyd sounded like he was favoring Notre Dame and Ohio State over Michigan, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Gophers. Keeping Floyd would be a huge coup.

Of this group of teams, I think there are seven programs with a shot at really moving up: Minnesota (T-52), Pitt (T-52), Washington (T-52), Michigan State (55), North Carolina (67), South Florida (58) and Rutgers (70). If I had to pick three with the best shot of sticking, I'd go with Pitt, UNC and Rutgers.

Rutgers is obviously the farthest along. The Scarlet Knights have a growing fan base. They have strong connections in both the Northeast and Florida. They have a hot coach who sounds like he is going to be around for a long time. And now they are beginning to reap the benefits of their success because they are getting better-caliber prospects out of south Florida and they have begun to fend off the big boys for the best in-state players (namely, prized OT Anthony Davis and OLB Manny Abreu).

The Panthers also have been impressive, beating elite programs for top local players (QB Pat Bostick, RB LeSean McCoy), but Dave Wannstedt's team still has yet to have a signature win. Fortunately for Rutgers and Pitt, they both play in the Big East, which appears to be fertile ground for another top team to emerge or even to overtake upstart Louisville and West Virginia.

Perhaps South Florida could be that program instead, but I still doubt the Bulls are going to be able to get in the mix for the top in-state players on an annual basis. Then again, maybe they will. The program has made some amazing strides thus far.

Perhaps the team with the most promising situation is North Carolina. The Tar Heels just hired an established winner in Butch Davis. They already have great facilities and a history of turning out some marquee talent (Lawrence Taylor, Julius Peppers), and last winter they beat everyone for a few big-name recruits, most notably DT Marvin Austin. Better still, Davis hits the ACC when the conference is reeling.

Both Miami and Florida State are still trying to re-establish themselves. Clemson, under Tommy Bowden, keeps tripping on itself, and in-state rival NC State is also in rebuilding mode. The one downside is that North Carolina is always going to be a basketball school. Then again, Florida and Ohio State both proved you can be great in both sports.

As for the others, I could see Minnesota and Michigan State improving a lot over the next few years, but it's hard to imagine either overtaking Ohio State and Michigan or even merely joining them. So those teams are left to battle with Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State, and there doesn't appear to be much wiggle room there.

[twillybull]

I think this year will tell a huge tail for USF in recruiting.  Is everyone else as excitied about the potential impact this season could have in recruiting?  I have never seen this kind of media attention for USF in the summer.  I feel really good about the schedule, except for that Rutgers game... that one scares me being only 5 days after the UCF contest.  I think they should move the UCF game to as early as possible just for that reason alone.

As for Auburn, as long as we don't get blown out, it's a win-win situation for us.  If we win, we're the National Sweetheart.  If we loose a close one, then chalk it up to growing pains/learning experince.  I don't think we'll see a better defense after that this year.

[On_the_Chip]

Has there been any program in D-1 football that has accomplished as much as USF has in their first 10 seasons?

[SRQ]

Not in the last 50 years.  U Conn probably closest.

[Al]

The recruiting is really improving the talent level.  I see the size of DT tackles in this class (McClain and Garrison) and think of the future and how free the LB's will be to run down plays sideline to sideline.  They probably won't be big contributors this season but when Clebert and Cray graduate they will step in and raise the level of play.

I'm excited because this has been probably the hardest thing for USF to do is recruit size at the DT positions.