UCF in the Big East? Yeah, right!

[Knight_Light]

The facilities could help them IF/when there's expansion, but the double edge of this sword is that the cost of buildings/stadiums, maintenance, high coaches salaries will be crippling if donations/attendance revenue isn't maintained.  Losing seasons and unattractive opponents will erode that, leaving huge deficits.

Big gamble

Sorry to disappoint you but there is very little risk or "gamble" in UCF's financing for their new stadium.

Stadium cost were set with conserative attendance averages of only 23,500 for the first 8-9 years of the stadium's life.

UCF, is well on-attract to average much more than 23,500 per year...plus UCF is well above projected naming rights, ad revenue, sponsorship levels that were used in the conservative feasibility study.

So no, UCF's stadium is NOT a "big gamble".

[UCFanatic]

There's also something to be said about Rivals and the fallacy that is online recruiting rankings.  But that's a whole other thread and discussion from months ago.

It's all on the field chief.

I agree with you whole-heartedly. Part of the reason USF is so good is because CJL is a defensive genius IMHO. He is a great game-day coach. A player has to stay in school, develop, etc. And yes, after all that you have to win on the field. However, I have to say I think you will see the team at UCF get much better in the next few years. I cant explain to you as a person so intimate with the roster. I can truthfully say that the recruiting class of 2004-2005 was horrible at UCF except for Kevin Smith and Joe Burnett. You had no big-time player in HS. The last 2 years things have really picked up. We have alot more talent coming in when you look at vitals, HS accolades, NIKE <=== reported 40 times, etc. I am sure you understand these numbers from following USF recruiting. UCF added some great perimeter speed this year. In 2004 UCF only had < 60 players on the roster.

High recruiting rankings guarantee nothing, but when you see a guy with film like Mike Ford and his vitals you have to get excited. By the way I have seen that film...freak.  Same thing has happen at UCF on a smaller scale. Stars arent as important as film, NIKE times, etc.

[UCFanatic]

The facilities could help them IF/when there's expansion, but the double edge of this sword is that the cost of buildings/stadiums, maintenance, high coaches salaries will be crippling if donations/attendance revenue isn't maintained.  Losing seasons and unattractive opponents will erode that, leaving huge deficits.

Big gamble

Sorry to disappoint you but there is very little risk or "gamble" in UCF's financing for their new stadium.

Stadium cost were set with conserative attendance averages of only 23,500 for the first 8-9 years of the stadium's life.

UCF, is well on-attract to average much more than 23,500 per year...plus UCF is well above projected naming rights, ad revenue, sponsorship levels that were used in the conservative feasibility study.

So no, UCF's stadium is NOT a "big gamble".

Ya back to your big gamble. You should probably understand the business plan and simple accounting if your going to make that statement. From an accounting standpoint you have a huge asset, and a note payable.

Each month you will have debt expense, and interest expense which can be amortized over 30+ years.

For revenues you have 20+million in donations which there is an accretion over 15 years, ticket sales, merchandise sales, food sales will be made on a monthly basis. You dont have a lease expense anymore.

Other expenses include coaches salary, recruiting, etc.

What you arent taking into account is that UCF has had many down years and always has 20,000+ people out there. Anyone at UCF that knows anything has seen the business plan and knows why the Business plan is promising, not a gamble.

I would say the beta factor, also known as "investment risk" is very low. WE have plenty of donors and the money keeps coming in. The club seating sold out a long time ago and season ticket sales are soaring.

No gamble man.

[Bulls 8_va]

"Too many cooks spoil the broth."  

Lets move on...

[UCFanatic]

Bringing in any CUSA team would water down the football (weakest part) of the conference as they have not been able to beat a Big East team in a while. UCiF has never beaten a current member of BE. USF had beaten CUSA teams that were moving and Pitt before they went to BE.

So were they thinking that when they brought USF in? Give me a break man. When you go to BCS you get better talent. CJL has been selling BCS since you got the invite, hence the better team. Last year you were 6-6. Your team will only get better. UCF would be bottom of the pack, but we would become alot more competetive. in 2005 we were 27th in the AP Poll.

Well, this is a dead horse. Good luck to you. I look forward to seeing Mike Ford in action.

[DawgPound]

UCFanatic, trying to argue with NukeBull is pointless.  He's as anti-UCF as they come and really has never been able to back his arguments well.

I do find it interesting to see so many posters who basicly say "anyone but UCF."  I guess those folks are afraid of what could happen(parity).

[lotsofbull99]

We should strangle UCF in the craddle, letting them into the Big East could be suicide.

[Cubanbull]

The reason that i dont think the Big east should add UCF in the near future is that the BE needs time to let USF establish itself to a level of the Big 3. The BCS access allows USF to do that,adding UCF just dilutes the talent both schools can get and thus makes it more difficult for either one to reach the levels of the big three.

Dont think the BE doesnt realize this, is the reason UM was so opposed to adding USF or UCF to the BE while they were there.

[BullsFanInTX]

If the BE does split ND will move with the Football Schools.  This is because of the Bowl agreements and the fact that a playoff might be instituted (they may need a conference affliation, especially if its a eight team playoff).

Under those circumstances, the BE would look to expand to another school.  If you look at the BE football schools you will see that there is only one in each state.  I thnk that the BE keeps that strategy.  It means more exposure overall.

With that in mind I think that the BE would look at Memphis (Tenn.), S. Miss (Miss), ECU (N Car.), NIU (Ill).  They will not go west of the Mississippi.  Of these I thinl that Memphis and NIU would be the leading candidiates.  Memphis because of name recoginition.  NIU because of Chicago (which is why DePaul is in the BE).

No, Notre Dame will most definitly not be joining the Big East. If they join ANY conference it would be the Big 10.

Notre Dame is THE biggest ratings draw in college football, when they are around ratings are astronomical. Therefore they will not be left out of any playoff scenerio if it ever happens as in Independent. If Notre Dame ever tried to join the BE for football the Big 10 would counter with a drop your pants offer that the Big East couldn't offer. You must remember 3 of Notre Dames biggest rivals are in the Big 10. (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and the occasional game with Northwestern)

As for NIU, they have had some football success, but don't let that be a guage of the athletic department. They are terrible in most sports and their athletic budget is actually one of the worst in the MAC. The Chicago affiliation would be nice, but I really doubt they will be willing to spend the money required to upgrade themselves to be included in the Big East.

I think of 4 logical schools and a couple more that would actually have to be considered.

My 1st choice: TCU - The football program is one of the best in the nonBCS. The TV Market is top 20 and the schools other athletic programs are successful. Their baseball team is leading the MWC, their women's basketball team has made the NCAA the last 7 years, etc.

2nd - UCF - New Facilities for the 3 major sports, location, and TV market have been discussed above.

3rd - Memphis - They have some history in football, a great basketball past. Basketball facilities are some of the best in the country(practice facility that is on campus too). Football is looking at getting a new stadium. Decent, not great, programs elsewhere. They have shown the tendancy to spend on a BCS level. Only problem...TV market ranked 53rd

4th - Marshall - I only say this because I know the governor of WV will be heavily involved (See the football game). It would nto shock me if they are the 1st team to make the jump if expansion ever happens. Not a great sports school now, but they have started what will be a extensive and expensive renovation to the campus facilities.

Others: ECU (no TV market); Southern Miss (no TV market); Tulane (decreased athletic spending heavily since 2001); Tulsa (distance)

Joe, I agree with you 110% on TCU.  That is a no brainer, if there ever was one.  invite TCU in my opinion and call it a day at 9 schools.  TCU would immediatly come in and be an upper echelon team (top 4 of league).  They bring a huge market. (3 times bigger than Orlando, for you UCFers).  The DFW metroplex is absoluetly HUGE, picture Tampa and Orlando metros combined.  They are also much closer than most of you think.  TCU is closer to Louisville than Tampa, FL is to Louisville.  Now how many of you knew that.

[BullsFanInTX]

The reason that i dont think the Big east should add UCF in the near future is that the BE needs time to let USF establish itself to a level of the Big 3. The BCS access allows USF to do that,adding UCF just dilutes the talent both schools can get and thus makes it more difficult for either one to reach the levels of the big three.

Dont think the BE doesnt realize this, is the reason UM was so opposed to adding USF or UCF to the BE while they were there.

Exactly.  why do I have to keep repeating this over and over.

ANYONE but UCF.

NEVER, NEVER, NEVER.

CJL and DW will nix UCF any time the subject comes up.

I will not allow it if I have to go and convince Mike Tranghese myself.