In Game The TBP Official In Game Thread: USF Bulls at Navy Midshipmen

[Triple B]

2 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

It felt like we were messing around and blowing the game.  I was expecting this game to be a close one and we spotted them 14 points.  

My initial thought, weirdly, was overcoming this will be a huge indicator .....

[olafberserker]

1 minute ago, Bulls On Parade said:

 

Curious what the thinking behind that was...it makes no sense high risk and low reward play.  

 

It isn't low reward.  Make the yard and you keep the ball and get the offense rolling.    He's made it clear he is going to go for it.  He is an offensive minded coach and appears to want to be aggressive.  Maybe he just has confidence in his team that he can get the yard and can overcome if they don't.  At this point I don't get all the angst over it

[Rocky Style]

Just now, Triple B said:

My initial thought, weirdly, was overcoming this will be a huge indicator .....

Yes that was something else.  They pretty much controlled the game after that.  

[USFBulls12]

Massey Ratings algorithm only gave us a 29% chance of winning tonight’s game. The only other game we have on the schedule with an equal or worse % is the Memphis game at 21%. We could easily win out, especially if we pull off the win on the road at Memphis. Apparently, we have another test next week at UAB at 34%. I think the predictive algorithms don’t know how to properly weigh us yet. That UAB %, as well as the others, should jump after it updates sometime tomorrow or Monday with tonight’s win data. 

[Bulls On Parade]

16 minutes ago, olafberserker said:

It isn't low reward.  Make the yard and you keep the ball and get the offense rolling.    He's made it clear he is going to go for it.  He is an offensive minded coach and appears to want to be aggressive.  Maybe he just has confidence in his team that he can get the yard and can overcome if they don't.  At this point I don't get all the angst over it

it is a low reward move on your own 30 on your first offensive drive....reason why 99.9% coaches would punt then. 

I don't mind being aggressive but he has to be smart about.  If it was near the 50 I could see doing it. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Bulls On Parade

[Outlaw]

Its official

[olafberserker]

17 minutes ago, Bulls On Parade said:

it is a low reward move on your own 30 on your first offensive drive....reason why 99.9% coaches would punt then. 

I don't mind being aggressive but he has to be smart about.  If it was near the 50 I could see doing it. 

No, the reward is keeping the ball and keeping your offense on the field ... which is what he wants.  The reward is high.   the risk is doing it on your own 30 yard line.   It's still high reward

[Rocky Style]

24 minutes ago, USFBulls12 said:

Apparently, we have another test next week at UAB at 34%

I think all of these algorithms are hosed.  We are too weighted down by past performance or something.  It's like they can't account for this kind of turnaround in the models.

ESPN had us favored in that game before today.  

[USFBulls12]

3 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

I think all of these algorithms are hosed.  We are too weighted down by past performance or something.  It's like they can't account for this kind of turnaround in the models.

ESPN had us favored in that game before today.  

100%. I’m going to keep betting on us to win if we’re not the favorite unless something indicates things have changed against us, i.e. BB injury. 

[Gismo]

13 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

I think all of these algorithms are hosed.  We are too weighted down by past performance or something.  It's like they can't account for this kind of turnaround in the models.

ESPN had us favored in that game before today.  

They can’t account for the coaching or roster turn over.