Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Brad]

Excerpt:

There are five real expansion targets that the Big 12 should consider as part of its network: Cincinnati, Central Florida or South Florida, BYU and Memphis. (Boise State makes no sense because the money isn't substantial. Connecticut might, but it's a long way away geographically. No existing school will leave one of the four major conferences for the Big 12. There just aren't teams that make sense to add after 14 members).

First, Cincinnati is a no brainer. The state of Ohio has 11.6 million people and is football crazy. The Bearcat brand is significant enough to drive interest in the state and you get a natural rivalry with West Virginia. Assuming you could get full distribution in Ohio for the Big 12 Network, adding a team in Ohio would add roughly $46 million in additional revenue.

Second, adding South Florida or Central Florida seems like a no brainer because there are twenty million people in the state of Florida. But the question is, could you get full cable or satellite distribution in Florida with either of these two teams? That is, do fans care enough to demand that their cable or satellite service carry the Big 12 network if you add USF or UCF? (Remember, this has been the Pac 12's problem with its network. Fans just don't care enough.)

That's a roll of the dice. In an ideal scenario you'd figure out which team is likely to be better going forward and which team has the most rabid fan base and then you'd pick that team to add to the Big 12. (Remember, two teams in the same state doesn't make sense in a conference network era).

But does either school really move the needle by itself?

The state of Florida is worth roughly $80 million a year if you could get a team fully distributed in the Sunshine State.

Which is why the really interesting play would be adding both schools at once. You get a natural rivalry and double the pressure for cable and satellite companies in the state to carry your network. But if you wanted to maximize revenue, you'd roll the dice on one team.

Memphis is the next best addition.

Yes, really.

The state of Tennessee has 6.6 million people, is football crazy, and sits in the fertile SEC footprint. The Big 12 could plant a flag on SEC soil and add roughly $26.4 million a year in revenue if it added a team here. (This assumes full distribution of the network. Is there enough demand in the state? I think so.)

BYU would be my fifth choice, the team I'd add if I thought we could get away with adding only one team in Florida. BYU is intriguing as a "national brand," but the problem with national brands is they don't make a lot of sense in a cable and satellite network era when you need a rabid following in a condensed geographic core. There are only 3 million people in Utah, but that would add $12 million to the Big 12 coffers.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/the-big-12-should-go-to-14-teams-070115

[Brad]

Other sports: Cincinnati is a long-time basketball power.

COLORDO STATE

Athletic budget: $39.9 million

Enrollment: 31,725

Market: The Fort Collins-Loveland metro population is estimated at 310,000; Greater Denver is an hour south, and the population of the Front Range Urban Corridor is estimated at 4.4 million.

Football stadium: Hughes Stadium sits off campus and seats 32,500. A new, on-campus, 40-seat stadium is scheduled to open in 2017.

Fan base: Dismal. The Rams drew an average of 26,575 in 2014, but that figure had declined each year since 2009, to a 42-year low of 18,600 in 2013.

Television attraction: No resonation with fans outside Colorado. Maybe inside, too.

Geography: Works well if BYU is in the league, too. Otherwise, what’s the point?

Academic standing: Ranked 121st nationally, which is solid.

Football prowess: Two straight solid seasons, 8-6 and 10-3, under now-Florida coach Jim McElwain. But before that, the Rams won 37 games in nine years.

Other sports: Rams are pretty good in women’s volleyball.

CONNECTICUT

Athletic budget: $71.4 million

Enrollment: 31,119

Market: Greater Hartford’s population is 1.21 million. The state of Connecticut has 3.6 million people.

Football stadium: Rentschler Field opened in 2003 at a cost of $91.2 million; current capacity is 40,642.

Fan base: Depressed. UConn seems to be a place that could ignite an entire state, but the Huskies averaged just 27,460 last season, and even in good seasons rarely approach a sellout.

Television attraction: Minimal. UConn basketball, yes. UConn football, no.

Geography: Interesting. No one ever expected the Big 12 to expand into New England. But the league already is in West Virginia. Plus, the ESPN factor can’t hurt — constant exposure in Bristol, Conn., consistently would plug the Big 12.

Academic standing: Excellent. Ranked 58th nationally and is the only flagship university of a state on this list.

Football prowess: Poor. Division I-A only since 2000. Made the Fiesta Bowl against OU in 2010 but is 15-33 since.

Other sports: National powers in men’s and women’s hoops.

HOUSTON

Athletic budget: $39.5 million

Enrollment: 39,540

Market: Greater Houston has a population of 6.18 million.

Football stadium: TDECU Stadium opened last season, with a capacity of 40,000.

Fan base: Limited. UH drew just 28,396 fans per game last season, despite opening a new stadium and sporting a competitive team that finished 8-5 and Pitt in a bowl game.

Television attraction: Decent. Houston still has a brand, dating back to the days of Bill Yeoman’s veer and John Jenkins’ run-and-shoot.

Geography: Houston wouldn’t expand the Big 12 footprint, but another school within the Oklahoma/Texas core would counter the stretching of the conference to West Virginia.

Academic standing: Ranked 189th nationally; much better than in the days when UH was referred to as Cougar High.

Football prowess: Solid. Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin both did well at Houston, and new coach Tom Herman comes with much acclaim. In the last six years, Houston has beaten Pitt, UCLA, Penn State, OSU, Mississippi State and Texas Tech.

Other sports: Solid. Houston has been competitive in baseball and softball; Kelvin Sampson is UH’s basketball coach.

MEMPHIS

Athletic budget: $50.3 million

Enrollment: 21,480

Market: Greater Memphis has a population of 1.34 million; counting the entire Mid-South region of Arkansas and Mississippi, the population is 2.4 million

Football stadium: Liberty Bowl Stadium opened in 1965 and has hosted the postseason game for half a century. Some 2011 renovations improved the off-campus stadium. Current capacity is 59,308.

Fan base: Small, but perhaps growing. Memphis averaged 33,851 fans last season, a huge increase from the days when the Tigers routinely drew less than 20,000 at the Liberty Bowl.

Television attraction: Not much. Memphis football does not move the needle.

Geography: Intriguing. A major-league city fairly close to Dallas, OKC and Kansas City, with a gateway to the South.

Academic standing: Not ranked among the top 200. Memphis is trying to change its image from a commuter school.

Football prowess: Weak. Justin Fuente coached Memphis to a 10-3 season and the American Conference title in 2014, its best year since 1938. Memphis had endured six straight losing seasons.

Other sports: Memphis is a national basketball brand. That never hurts.

SOUTH FLORIDA

Athletic budget: $40.8 million

Enrollment: 41,888

Market: Tampa Bay’s metro population is estimated at 2.91 million.

Football stadium: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Raymond James Stadium, which opened in 1998 and seats 65,890. But USF closes off the upper deck for its games.

Fan base: Falling fast. USF declared an average attendance of 52,553 in 2009. The next three years fell into the 40,000s, went to 34,702 in 2013 and 30,964 in 2014. Some reports have the actual attendance at far less.

Television attraction: Little zing. In their own state and maybe their own city, the Bulls rank no better than seventh among football teams.

Geography: Promising. A Florida presence would shift the Big 12 in the direction of West Virginia and open more recruiting inroads into Florida.

Academic standing: Ranked 161st nationally, which places it between Texas Tech and West Virginia.

Football prowess: Gone. The Bulls were a dangerous program under Jim Leavitt, but USF has gone 14-34 the last four seasons.

Other sports: Nothing distinguishable.

[Brad]

Link for above: http://m.newsok.com/analyzing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-big-12-expansion-candidates/article/5431792

UCF is the sweetheart.

Amazing the amount of damage done.

[Flowers4Heisman]

There's time. The Big 12 will not act yet.

 

(1) When the Big 12 gets left out again at the end of the year, that's when they will do something.

(2) USF football needs to stop being a "sleeping giant" and wake up!

(3) Hopefully, our current AD will do a better job than that last guy...

[Triple B]

Link for above: http://m.newsok.com/analyzing-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-big-12-expansion-candidates/article/5431792

UCF is the sweetheart.

Amazing the amount of damage done.

 

I must have missed something. How do you get that UCF is the sweetheart??

[Brad]

Page one of article

Some comment like "don't be surprised if you see UCF in B12 in 2-3 years".

It was in one of the three articles I read this morning.

[Triple B]

Page one of article

Some comment like "don't be surprised if you see UCF in B12 in 2-3 years".

It was in one of the three articles I read this morning.

 

Meh .... The writers of those articles aren't much more informed than the posters here, if at all.

 

Although one did nail this about the Kanigits... Television attraction: Not good. Truth is, much of America still doesn’t distinguish between UCF and USF.

[Brad]

Accurate when anti-UCF, but not knowledgeable when pro-UCF?

Bottom line is they have risen above us in the pecking order. In fact, we're harming the alleged value of being packaged together.

Need to get our **** together, pronto.

Been several years of misguided leadership and losing.

[JTrue]

Eh. We have a better market, better overall athletic department, and better academics. They've had a better football team for 4 years along with some infractions that might be considered serious to some people. What is it you see in them that we're dragging down?

[Brad]

Performance on field.