Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Killbilly]

"Realignment Primer" from Waiving the Wheat, a Kansas board.  

 

http://www.wavingthewheat.com/showthread.php?14545-Realignment-Primer

 

 

 

Well, the guy has done some research.  But I think he is way overly optimistic on the stability of the Big 12.  I also think he is short changing the possibility of the Big 12 adding teams.  Two reasons.  One, the other power conferences are not happy that the Big 12 only has ten teams for multiple reasons.  If the B1G and SEC decide that the Big 12 needs to add more members, they will arrange the votes so that the Big 12 is forced to add more members.  The B12 has a numbers disadvantage in this fight.

 

Second, Fox and ESPN would absolutely add $$$ to the contract to get more teams.  Maybe $20mil per team per year, maybe not.  But certainly enough that the hit would be small.  Right off the bat you'd be adding a CCG which will up the dollars.  This poster says that the networks would not add dollars if they add teams.  Absolutely not the case.

 

By the same token he completely dismisses the idea that the Big 12 could disband.  It would be unlikely that the Big12 would disband in the next three or four years, but it isn't impossible.  One reason the SEC doesn't have a GOR is that they believe it is not enforceable.  We have seen in the Big East that there are limits as to how much you can punish a school for leaving a conference, no matter what the bylaws state.  If teams want out of the Big 12, it will happen.

 

Some good stuff here, some unrealistic stuff.

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG. And the B12 doesn't have a numbers disadvantage in D4 votes. One conference = one vote so far. Besides, to make D4 happen, the P5 must get along so they won't mess with each other too much.

Be aware that adding members requires much more revenue than $20M per team. Right now, we divide the $40M Sugar Bowl, Tier-1 ESPN, Tier-2 FOX, bowl revenues, etc. among 10 teams. New teams must bring at least $26M-$28M each just to maintain current payouts to B12 members, and most B12 schools don't want to expand unless it means increased revenue for current members. Plus, under our TV new contracts, B12 members will earn over $30M in just a few years increasing to nearly $40M before 2020. Hard to believe any school not already in P5 brings that much value.

To be clear, I'm not against the B12 adding USF per se. At least you're a Southern university so we'd have more in common culturally than with Uconn, Cincy, or BYU. It's the process and motivations for realignment that intrigue me. I had some input related to Tech's possible moves the past few years so I know a little about the subject. Of course the potential moves currently being discussed involve several conferences, not an individual school, so it's a totally different animal.

[Who'sYourData?]

 

 

 

 

 

And some of you guys are really in denial that discussions are taking place behind the scenes.

It's one thing to believe that discussions are taking place.

Quite another to believe that these guys have access to the inner sanctum and that they are leaking inside dope. 

 

 

Why?  These guys have been right, and they've had the info far earlier than ESPN.

 

You really think that no one knows what is going on?  Please.  There are lots of people that know.

 

 

They've been right EVERY time .... or they throw so much **** against the wall, some of it sticks?

 

 

If you've read them consistently, you would see that they don't throw different stuff over and over again against the wall.  They haven't offered up FIU to the ACC, or New Mexico to the SEC.  They have called a lot of things that have actually gone down.

 

Who on this board knew that TCU was going back to the Big 12 before one of these guys did?  No one.

 

Who on here knew that A&M was going to the SEC before these guys.  No one.

 

Fact is, they've called everything that has happened, even when some on here said it would never happen.  

 

Have they been wrong?  Sure, but only in the sense that many things are being discussed.  Unlike ESPN, they share when something is being discussed and they don't wait until after the contracts are all signed.

 

I absolutely guarantee they have better contacts than you or I.  They do have people on the "inside" somewhere, be it one or more schools or conference offices.  

 

This is really a stupid discussion, however.  I don't understand why people continue to come on a rumors thread and then complain that rumors are posted.  

 

If you don't want to read rumors, STOP READING THIS THREAD.  It isn't a difficult concept.  Some of us like to discuss rumors and possibilities.  Let us.

[Who'sYourData?]

 

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG. 

 

 

What evidence would you like to see?  A memo from Slive?  A press conference with the Florida AD?

 

I've outlined this numerous times.  It is a huge advantage for the Big 12 to not risk their regular season champion in a championship game.  Why should Alabama have to face Georgia or Florida in a CCG, but an undefeated Texas gets to skate into the playoffs?  Why should the SEC split their monies with 14 or 16 teams, and the Big 12 only splits it with 10.

 

Common sense dictates that they other four conferences won't let this scenario stand.  But there are LOTS and LOTS of rumors that this is exactly what is going to happen.  The Big 12 will continue to resist as long as possible, but in the end they will expand or lose a seat in the playoffs most years.

 

If you want evidence, don't read this thread.  If you want to discuss what might happen, what is likely to happen and/or what could possibly happen, this is the thread for you.

[Skingraft]

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG.

What evidence would you like to see? A memo from Slive? A press conference with the Florida AD?

I've outlined this numerous times. It is a huge advantage for the Big 12 to not risk their regular season champion in a championship game. Why should Alabama have to face Georgia or Florida in a CCG, but an undefeated Texas gets to skate into the playoffs? Why should the SEC split their monies with 14 or 16 teams, and the Big 12 only splits it with 10.

Common sense dictates that they other four conferences won't let this scenario stand. But there are LOTS and LOTS of rumors that this is exactly what is going to happen. The Big 12 will continue to resist as long as possible, but in the end they will expand or lose a seat in the playoffs most years.

If you want evidence, don't read this thread. If you want to discuss what might happen, what is likely to happen and/or what could possibly happen, this is the thread for you.

🙈🙉🙊

This thread gives us hope

[WoolyBully]

 

This is really a stupid discussion, however.  I don't understand why people continue to come on a rumors thread and then complain that rumors are posted.   If you don't want to read rumors, STOP READING THIS THREAD.  It isn't a difficult concept.  Some of us like to discuss rumors and possibilities.  Let us.

 

You know, I think you're exactly right. It's all rumor - conjecture - fantasy anyway, so why should we ridicule those who hang on every posting from some clandestine operative deep within the bowels of the P(5). I am certain that when the roulette wheel of realignment finally stops spinning, it will be reflected in our scheduling, probably have a press conference on Fowler Avenue and may even be mentioned via the "Worldwide Leader in Sports". So I absolutely agree, less time on this thread would be the way to go for those who have consumed their fill of rumor or have grown fatigued with fantasy conferences of someones favorite twenty four teams. 

[Sellular1]

I think too many people talk about the "cut" in revenue that the B12 would incur by adding teams but that is a short term issue. The long term outlook is more important. Lock up your teams now before someone else grabs them because if ANY other conference wanted to cherrypick, the B12 loses.

[Triple B]

 

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG.

 

What evidence would you like to see?  A memo from Slive?  A press conference with the Florida AD?

 

I've outlined this numerous times.  It is a huge advantage for the Big 12 to not risk their regular season champion in a championship game.  Why should Alabama have to face Georgia or Florida in a CCG, but an undefeated Texas gets to skate into the playoffs?  Why should the SEC split their monies with 14 or 16 teams, and the Big 12 only splits it with 10.

 

Common sense dictates that they other four conferences won't let this scenario stand.  But there are LOTS and LOTS of rumors that this is exactly what is going to happen.  The Big 12 will continue to resist as long as possible, but in the end they will expand or lose a seat in the playoffs most years.

 

If you want evidence, don't read this thread.  If you want to discuss what might happen, what is likely to happen and/or what could possibly happen, this is the thread for you.

 

 

The 2 red statements are contradictory .... Personally, I'm torn with the B12 situation. On one hand, odds are, if they don't expand, we don't get in the P5.  On the other, they are the only P5 with a true conference champion, having the season being a round robin tournament for the title.

[2000bull]

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG.

What evidence would you like to see? A memo from Slive? A press conference with the Florida AD?

I've outlined this numerous times. It is a huge advantage for the Big 12 to not risk their regular season champion in a championship game. Why should Alabama have to face Georgia or Florida in a CCG, but an undefeated Texas gets to skate into the playoffs? Why should the SEC split their monies with 14 or 16 teams, and the Big 12 only splits it with 10.

Common sense dictates that they other four conferences won't let this scenario stand. But there are LOTS and LOTS of rumors that this is exactly what is going to happen. The Big 12 will continue to resist as long as possible, but in the end they will expand or lose a seat in the playoffs most years.

If you want evidence, don't read this thread. If you want to discuss what might happen, what is likely to happen and/or what could possibly happen, this is the thread for you.

The 2 red statements are contradictory .... Personally, I'm torn with the B12 situation. On one hand, odds are, if they don't expand, we don't get in the P5. On the other, they are the only P5 with a true conference champion, having the season being a round robin tournament for the title.

even if they were undefeated, wouldnt it still be one less game played vs having to play a championship game

[Triple B]

 

 

 

I've seen no evidence that conferences will insist the B12 add a CCG.

What evidence would you like to see? A memo from Slive? A press conference with the Florida AD?

I've outlined this numerous times. It is a huge advantage for the Big 12 to not risk their regular season champion in a championship game. Why should Alabama have to face Georgia or Florida in a CCG, but an undefeated Texas gets to skate into the playoffs? Why should the SEC split their monies with 14 or 16 teams, and the Big 12 only splits it with 10.

Common sense dictates that they other four conferences won't let this scenario stand. But there are LOTS and LOTS of rumors that this is exactly what is going to happen. The Big 12 will continue to resist as long as possible, but in the end they will expand or lose a seat in the playoffs most years.

If you want evidence, don't read this thread. If you want to discuss what might happen, what is likely to happen and/or what could possibly happen, this is the thread for you.

The 2 red statements are contradictory .... Personally, I'm torn with the B12 situation. On one hand, odds are, if they don't expand, we don't get in the P5. On the other, they are the only P5 with a true conference champion, having the season being a round robin tournament for the title.

even if they were undefeated, wouldnt it still be one less game played vs having to play a championship game

 

 

Yes .... but there would be some years where the B12 champion would need that extra win to cement a spot in the playoffs, so not having one could be a detriment. Will probably all even out as the years go by. The conferences expanded and have the CG for one reason .... $$$ ... tough **** if they have to play an extra game. They brought it on themselves. 

[Lmshaffe]

Tuxedo Yodaâ€@TuxedoYoda

Heard from my Austin source. Phone conference early this week with all of the B12 members led by Bowlsby. Realignment related.#time4ucfusf

Edited August 18, 2013 by Lmshaffe