Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[aroth]

This potential round of expansion seems like scraping the last bit of peanut butter out of the jar. If the ACC has any intentions of expanding they need to grab what they can now.

If Tulane/Memphis/USF end up in the PAC it’s going to get really ugly when FSU and Clemson leave in 2030, and the ACC has to pick from whatever is left. Those mass defections to the B12 would seem very realistic.

[Gismo]

So if the exit fee is 27.5 million, if two AAC teams leave, that’s a 55 million dollar distribution between the remaining members. 
 

Paying that exit fee isn’t worth it for an extra 2-3 MM / year that takes a decade to make up for the exit fee (unless the PAC covers it).
 

Especially considering the travel for USF. Also, if an ACC school leaves we will collect the exit fee probably making the same as we might in the PAC assuming the PAC makes more anyway, which it’s not clear they will, especially without USF. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Gismo

[belgianbull]

18 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

I don't see the second half of this tweet yet.

 based on this article The PAC is expected to  help the 4 MW teams joining in paying the exit fees for the MW. Maybe a similar deal for USF, Tulane, and Memphis?

Report: AAC Schools Face $27.5M Exit Fee Amid Pac-12, Conference Realignment Rumors

BLEACHERREPORT.COM

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Leaving the America Athletic Conference for a new wave Pac-12 will be an expensive endeavor. Pete Thamel of ESPN reported that the exit cost for AAC schools…

 

Edited 1 hour ago by belgianbull

[puc86]

So there is a scenario where when Cincinnati, Houston and UCF paid $18 million in order to leave early we may have responded with agreeing to raise the exit requirement 50% to stay together with teams that should have been worth 70 % less? Why would anyone possibly do that other than sure incompetence? Getting out no matter what should have always been the goal and never persevering it and trying to make it stronger.

[belgianbull]

1 minute ago, puc86 said:

So there is a scenario where when Cincinnati, Houston and UCF paid $18 million in order to leave early we may have responded with agreeing to raise the exit requirement 50% to stay together with teams that should have been worth 70 % less? Why would anyone possibly do that other than sure incompetence? Getting out no matter what should have always been the goal and never persevering it and trying to make it stronger.

I am not sure about this case, but exit fees are usually negotiated down a bit in order to save legal fees and time in Court.

[Gismo]

So thinking in terms of conference strength, the MWC and AAC will be in in competition for that 5th conference championship bid. 
 

Now a few of those MWC teams move to PAC with Oregon St and Wazzu. 

MWC already has a lower payout than AAC. Does adding OSU and Wazzu really make it a whole lot more? 
 

While the top of the AAC joining the PAC would separate them from everyone else for that 5th conference bid, it’s not clear that it’s much better situation for those AAC teams who are already the most likely to get the playoff spot. 
 

Seems the top of the AAC jointing the PAC is a much bigger win for the PAC teams than it would be for the AAC teams that join. 

 

[belgianbull]

Just now, Gismo said:

So thinking in terms of conference strength, the MWC and AAC will be in in competition for that 5th conference championship bid. 
 

Now a few of those MWC teams move to PAC with Oregon St and Wazzu. 

MWC already has a lower payout than AAC. Does adding OSU and Wazzu really make it a whole lot more? 
 

While the top of the AAC joining the PAC would separate them from everyone else for that 5th conference bid, it’s not clear that it’s much better situation for those AAC teams who are already the most likely to get the playoff spot. 
 

Seems the top of the AAC jointing the PAC is a much bigger win for the PAC teams than it would be for the AAC teams that join. 

 

I dont know if that's still true today. Cant forget that UCF, Houston, SMU, and Cincy left in the last two years.

[Gismo]

I think the PAC payout would have to substantially more to be worth it. 

[The Great 8]

36 minutes ago, Gismo said:

MWC already has a lower payout than AAC. Does adding OSU and Wazzu really make it a whole lot more? 

Math would suggest what makes it, potentially, a whole lot more is not subsidizing and splitting proceeds with the Wyomings of the world.

If Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA are “worth” $70MM a year combined, split by 10 conference mates we’re talking $7MM a year vs $5MM in the 14 team AAC.

[BULLSHTR]

The new PAC even with Memphis, Tulane, and USF is not a great conference by any measure. Still better than what would be left of the AAC. That is the sad state of things.

ACC/B1G or bust. Whatever happens in the meantime is ultimately irrelevant. If it makes sense to make more money and keep a clear path to CFP as best of G5 representative for the next 5 years, so be it.