Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Brad]

"They may not want to go, but they don’t want the other guy to go without them."

 

There, once again, is one of the things we all know.  

[Cubanbull]

5 minutes ago, hm101 said:

The more I think about and read about this I do not like it. Our TV exposure, ease-of-travel (which will eventually catch up to players and impact wins, and also impacts fan experience as we have more alumni in Philly and NC than in Pullman, WA), and future prospects all tell my gut that we should sit tight. 

 

Disagree, we can’t sit tight in a depleted AAC without Memphis, Tulane, UTSA. Waiting on something that isn’t happening until 2030 or beyond. This while being squeezed out of CFP chances. If they add 4 AAC schools. USF could mainly be playing Tulane,Memphis,UTSA,Colorado State yearly and going west twice a year. In Olympic Sports except basketball we could just play those four home/away as conference games.

 

[Brad]

The NFL is going international.

The BabyNFL is going nationwide.

Prepare thine self.

[USF_Bullsharks]

13 minutes ago, hm101 said:

The more I think about and read about this I do not like it. Our TV exposure, ease-of-travel (which will eventually catch up to players and impact wins, and also impacts fan experience as we have more alumni in Philly and NC than in Pullman, WA), and future prospects all tell my gut that we should sit tight. 

 

It all depends on what the PAC's media distribution package looks like. If our T3 sports can be on ESPN+ or a platform like it, that's good. If we can secure primetime TV slots, whether that be an existing network provider or a new one, that's also good. 

Lotta "ifs", but I think there are definitely ways to achieve "worth it" status, while there are also plenty of reasons for it to not be worth it. Tough situation. Regardless, I think 2027/2028/2029 will be the most pivotal realignment window for USF. 

[Bull Gooner]

9 minutes ago, hm101 said:

The more I think about and read about this I do not like it. Our TV exposure, ease-of-travel (which will eventually catch up to players and impact wins, and also impacts fan experience as we have more alumni in Philly and NC than in Pullman, WA), and future prospects all tell my gut that we should sit tight. 

 

Yep! The (presumably) marginal money will be quickly eroded from cross country travel. And, with no conference auto-bids in the new CFP format, there doesn't seem to be an incentive. 

[LeavittAlone]

5 minutes ago, Cubanbull said:

Disagree, we can’t sit tight in a depleted AAC without Memphis, Tulane, UTSA. Waiting on something that isn’t happening until 2030 or beyond. This while being squeezed out of CFP chances. If they add 4 AAC schools. USF could mainly be playing Tulane,Memphis,UTSA,Colorado State yearly and going west twice a year. In Olympic Sports except basketball we could just play those four home/away as conference games.

 

Not to mention that if Memphis and Tulane leave, the chances of ever making a major bowl game (CFP Round 1, NY6, etc) is virtually gone even if we win the conference. The PAC champ will almost always get that spot unless something really wild happens. Can't stay in a conference that will have been diluted 3 or 4 times by then.

[Gismo]

8 minutes ago, 00Bull said:

Logic would seem to be that USF can’t go without Memphis and Tulane but Tulane and Memphis could certainly go without USF. Not buying it’s a 3 way package.

Nobody has a clue what media deal this new PAC gets.

 

 

[Gismo]

The problem here is this for Memphis, Tulane, and USF

 

If only 1 or 2 leave the AAC,

 

for those who go to PAC, they have to play in the west time zones, and don’t bring the value of all 3. Ends up being worse than the AAC.

 

for those who stay in the AAC, the level of competition declines somewhat, overall conference is weakened.

 

The only possible win happens when all 3 are kept together. Splitting the 3 up between PAC and AAC ends up being worse for all 3.

Nobody wants to take the risk of the fragmented outcome whether they are the ones that go to the PAC or stay in the AAC. 
 

I think considering the travel, and unknown media deal, and potential GOR lock in. The best move for USF, Tulane, and Memphis is to stay put in the AAC.

 

I don’t know if it’s legal or not for the 3 to confer with each other on the matter, but it certainly might be considered a conflict of interest, so they probably aren’t talking with each other. 
 

I think they all recognize the dilemma. The only way to solve it may be for some public comments to hint to each other on the best move together. 

 

There is some game theory involved and this scenario would make a great psychological behavioral study. It’s similar to the prisoners dilemma but not exactly. 

 

[Bob Loblaw]

If we stay with the AAC, we better be prepared to take haircut on the ESPN media contract renewal. This league ain’t worth $8m a year anymore. 

[Gismo]

Even if 2 of 3 go to the PAC-12, it still ends up worse, you only have 1 eastern partner instead of 2, and you end up with a less competitive PAC-12 and unknown media package.