Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Rocky Style]

8 minutes ago, BULLSHTR said:

In what universe does anyone think that the current Big 12 looks better than the ACC (minus FSU & Clemson, + USF, Memphis, & UCONN?) I would think the eventual TV deal for that ACC would always be higher than that Big 12 (better schools, better tv markets).

I don't get it. This is why it makes no sense for FSU to go there unless they are planning some major raid.  

[UCF_rustbucket]

25 minutes ago, BULLSHTR said:

In what universe does anyone think that the current Big 12 looks better than the ACC (minus FSU & Clemson, + USF, Memphis, & UCONN?) I would think the eventual TV deal for that ACC would always be higher than that Big 12 (better schools, better tv markets).

Without FSU and Clemson they're pretty even. Markets for markets sale don't matter. It's the viewership. If markets alone were the difference maker, the PAC would've survived and the Big 12 died. The Big 12 is like a Great Value SEC in terms of how it earns its TV value, mostly non sexy markets (at least before the newest 8 teams) but strong college town support. 

Separately, if I'm the ACC and I lose just those 2, I don't know that it makes sense to add 3 G5 to get up to 18. They're at 15 football schools and 16 overall after they leave. I'd either do just 1 or none at all. They're not in the precarious membership situation that the Big East perpetually was in or the Big 12 when they got down to 8. 

[BULLSHTR]

22 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

I don't get it. This is why it makes no sense for FSU to go there unless they are planning some major raid.  

I could see WVU and SMU swapping places.

2 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

Without FSU and Clemson they're pretty even. Markets for markets sale don't matter. It's the viewership. If markets alone were the difference maker, the PAC would've survived and the Big 12 died. The Big 12 is like a Great Value SEC in terms of how it earns its TV value, mostly non sexy markets (at least before the newest 8 teams) but strong college town support. 

Separately, if I'm the ACC and I lose just those 2, I don't know that it makes sense to add 3 G5 to get up to 18. They're at 15 football schools and 16 overall after they leave. I'd either do just 1 or none at all. They're not in the precarious membership situation that the Big East perpetually was in or the Big 12 when they got down to 8. 

ACC will eventually lose ND completely. Greater market size = higher viewship ceiling. IMO, they should try to get to 18, just in case there are other defections to the P2. Two 9 team divisions is actually pretty awesome.

[BULLSHTR]

Anyone notice that the Big 12 is mostly places that nobody ever wants to go for vacation (except Orlando). It's flyover country and FSU wouldn't be caught dead pairing up with ucf.

[UCF_rustbucket]

6 minutes ago, BULLSHTR said:

Anyone notice that the Big 12 is mostly places that nobody ever wants to go for vacation (except Orlando). It's flyover country and FSU wouldn't be caught dead pairing up with ucf.

5 schools in prime national park territory, a lot of bleh, some bleh up in the rust belt and Appalachia, then Disney lol

[Cat941]

6 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

Without FSU and Clemson they're pretty even. Markets for markets sale don't matter. It's the viewership. If markets alone were the difference maker, the PAC would've survived and the Big 12 died. The Big 12 is like a Great Value SEC in terms of how it earns its TV value, mostly non sexy markets (at least before the newest 8 teams) but strong college town support. 

How will the B12 afford to pay FSU and Clemson?  They are trying to leave an ACC with revenue distributions that are higher than the B12 and include success incentives.  Will there be uneven revenue distributions in the B12 if further realignment happens?   Will FOX and ESPN be agreeable? 

The B12 doesn't have a network (versus the ACC) which would be a factor if I were a person in charge of making those decisions.  

[UCF_rustbucket]

Just now, Cat941 said:

How will the B12 afford to pay FSU and Clemson?  They are trying to leave an ACC with revenue distributions that are higher than the B12 and include success incentives.  Will there be uneven revenue distributions in the B12 if further realignment happens?   Will FOX and ESPN be agreeable? 

The B12 doesn't have a network (versus the ACC) which would be a factor if I were a person in charge of making those decisions.  

Could be some combination of PE money plus uneven distributions. But also hypothetically, let's assume the 16 team Big 12 and the ACC without FSU/Clemson are worth the same. That would theoretically mean that if you add FSU/Clemson to either, their new value is the same as well. Where the Big 12 has the advantage is they're up for negotiation first. Vs the ACC being locked into an underpaid value. 

That being said, those seems like unsustainable bandaid solutions just to try to lure those 2 schools. Would the Big 12 members support it? May never have to really come up with a full plan since this feels just like an emergency option in case P2 somehow doesn't happen.

[WoolyBully]

I think that the P2 line of demarcation is going to be pretty well fortified. There won't be a P3. The P2 might cherry-pick a team or two, but the scales won't tip towards the Big XII being a conference equal among the superior. If the ACC can lose two teams (FSU/Clemson), no reason the other schools can't use their work as a template and slide towards the exit as well. Imagine an ACC without UNC, Duke, & Virginia. I think, quality wise, there's not a great deal of distance between the depleted ACC & Big XII. 

[Rocky Style]

13 minutes ago, WoolyBully said:

Imagine an ACC without UNC, Duke, & Virginia.

I don't wanna

[SilverBull]

11 minutes ago, WoolyBully said:

I think that the P2 line of demarcation is going to be pretty well fortified. There won't be a P3.

Despite dreams to the contrary, I'm afraid we will soon have to learn to accept the new world order. At least until the Superpowers unleash the nukes on each other.