Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[TallyBull]

25 minutes ago, CF is NFL Jr said:

It depends upon how quickly things happen.  Right now I think nationally they are seen as relatively valuable programs.  Certainly they are seen nationally more valuable than any G5 teams.   This is recency bias and perception based upon their prior position in the PAC12.  It they struggle this year with the MWC schedule and don't remain head an shoulders better than those teams then I see them falling pretty far.  But if they dominate this year and somehow maintain image and some tv numbers then they would be still be seen as potential additions to a B12 or ACC.

 

Question: are they considered "G5" for purposes of going to the CFP? 

 

I don't expect them to dominate anything next year, but I'm not a good prognosticator, so who knows. Regardless, I just don't see either the Big 12 or the ACC taking them. They practically begged the Big 12 to take them, but the Big 12 rather coldly declined. There must be good reasons for this (bad TV numbers? something else?). Why would the ACC overlook these reasons? Just to help out Cal and Stanford? I'm skeptical.

I'm pretty sure their auto-bid is gone, so yeah, I think they're now considered G5 for CFP purposes. But someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[CousinRicky]

4 hours ago, Friscobull said:

Young, I am a dog but even I have standards. 

If the ship is going down would you really care?

[Grateful Dad]

1 minute ago, CousinRicky said:

If the ship is going down would you really care?

At that point, I'd rather have a Mae West.  Look it up, youngsters.

[CousinRicky]

1 minute ago, Grateful Dad said:

At that point, I'd rather have a Mae West.  Look it up, youngsters.

Don't think I'm too far behind you.

[CF is NFL Jr]

25 minutes ago, TallyBull said:

I don't expect them to dominate anything next year, but I'm not a good prognosticator, so who knows. Regardless, I just don't see either the Big 12 or the ACC taking them. They practically begged the Big 12 to take them, but the Big 12 rather coldly declined. There must be good reasons for this (bad TV numbers? something else?). Why would the ACC overlook these reasons? Just to help out Cal and Stanford? I'm skeptical.

I'm pretty sure their auto-bid is gone, so yeah, I think they're now considered G5 for CFP purposes. But someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Realignment has been a very interesting exercise in program value.  OSU and WSU getting orphaned has created an interesting experiment in what G5 programs have been saying for years.   That is that the only real difference between the mediocre/poor P5 teams and the top G5 programs was conference affiliation and the benefits that go with it.  This year we will get to see how those programs stack up without the "P" designation behind them.  They still have the money, but they have lost talent and coaches and they have to play SDSU, SJSU, Colorado St.  Fresno and Boise from the MWC.  

[TallyBull]

4 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

Don't think I'm too far behind you.

Not sure I'd be much in the mood if I were about to die a horrible death in the freezing waters of the Atlantic. But that's just me. 

[USF_Bullsharks]

4 minutes ago, CF is NFL Jr said:

Realignment has been a very interesting exercise in program value.  OSU and WSU getting orphaned has created an interesting experiment in what G5 programs have been saying for years.   That is that the only real difference between the mediocre/poor P5 teams and the top G5 programs was conference affiliation and the benefits that go with it.  This year we will get to see how those programs stack up without the "P" designation behind them.  They still have the money, but they have lost talent and coaches and they have to play SDSU, SJSU, Colorado St.  Fresno and Boise from the MWC.  

Agreed. Let's see how those programs do with a change of "scenery" regarding conference games, and soon how conference distributions affect them. 

[Jim Johnson]

17 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

Understand and my reply to that was that if the ACC Commissioner keeps the loses to 2-4 with enough exit fees, he can make it financially a bad move for any more schools to leave.

FSU and Clemson are gone.

UNC, UVA and maybe Miami are really the only others that might be able to get a P2 invite. 
 

The ACC’s job now is not to lose anyone to B12

I agree there are only 2-4 "P2" landing spots for current ACC teams.

Let's use Louisville as an example.  To move from the ACC to the Big 12 involves:

1. Paying an exit fee that is officially $140 million, but likely to be much less.  Let's use $70 million for arguments sake.
2. If we expect FSU, Clemson, UNC, and either UVa or Miami leave for the P2, that's $280 million in exit fees.  Let's also assume SMU, Cal, and Stanford don't get a full share of this; same with Notre Dame - so let's throw $30M to those four.  That leaves 10 schools to get 'full shares' of the remaining $250 million.
3. That means a move to the Big 12 will "cost" Louisville $95 million - $70 million paid out and $25 million they forego from the exit fees
4. The Big 12 contract is up after the 2030-31 season, and Louisville won't be able to move until 2025-2026 (if not later than that).

Louisville, in this example, would have to answer this question: Is the six years in the Big 12 paying $95 million total more than six years in the remnants of the ACC?  That's $15 million PER YEAR.   The answer to that question is "No."  Even if ESPN pays less to the ACC, which I also doubt, the gap won't be $15 million per year per school.  Especially because of the new 12-team CFP money.

So that means, would Louisville take LESS MONEY OVERALL to leave behind the ACC "remnants" to move to the Big 12?  I remain highly skeptical

 

[Friscobull]

27 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

If the ship is going down would you really care?

I guess standards was a poor choice of words, I couldn’t drink myself to a point that tapping that dusty clam would be appealing however I would literally die trying. Ironically I would probably get there and she would give me a hard pass.  My final performance would then have to be a solo act. 

[TallyBull]

5 minutes ago, Friscobull said:

I guess standards was a poor choice of words, I couldn’t drink myself to a point that tapping that dusty clam would be appealing however I would literally die trying. Ironically I would probably get there and she would give me a hard pass.  My final performance would then have to be a solo act.