Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Jim Johnson]

3 hours ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

UVA would be the smallest school enrollment-wise in the B1G.

Northwestern is smaller.

 

 

[I like GOOOOLD (and green)]

4 hours ago, TallyBull said:

I appreciate your thoughts, but I disagree. I think the ACC will carry on and rival the Big 12. I also think you can split up the ACC into roughly three groups, and members in two of those three groups are either unlikely, or may or may not be able, to find a new home in another "P5" conference.

Likely staying in a future ACC because the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 don't want them:

• Pittsburgh
• Syracuse
• Boston College
• Wake Forest
• Georgia Tech (tough one, could be on the bubble)

On the bubble:

• Virginia
• Virginia Tech
• NC State
• Louisville
• Duke

Likely departures:

• FSU
• Miami
• North Carolina
• Clemson
• Notre Dame

Pitt vs WVU is legitimately one of the best rivalries in the game and makes sense with Cincy and Louisville as a pod.  They are going to the Big 12.  GT is going to the BIG, they have historical ties to that conference going back like a hundred years.  That leaves three schools.  Even if it were the 5 you mention that’s not coming close to competing with the XII in anything.  

[JAFFX2]

2 hours ago, Peatearpan said:

I would wait to see what happens with the ACC. If four teams leave (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Va Tech) I think a few things happen.

1. Some teams get snagged by the B12 (maybe Miami, Pitt, UConn, one other).

2. Remaining teams from ACC/PAC come together and fill up with the valuable teams from MWC/AAC (this is our chance to get in). This conference has the best shot to be P4.

3. CFP gets restructured for the 4 conference champs getting an autobid (the 12 team structure was mainly to ensure each of the power conference had 1 rep, and the G5 was given a bone to shut them up). 12 team playoff, 4 autobids for the power conferences, rest are at large, and the G teams are completely cut out.

4. Group teams consolidate in some way, and teams left out start looking at how much they are willing to spend. Some teams drop down to FCS or shut down football programs.

5. Some kind of structure/rules for NIL get put in place.

With regards to bullet number 2.........the remaining power conferences have a not so subtle strategy to consolidate. The likelihood that those conferences vote to approve a new merged autonomous conference into existence is basically slim to none...........If and when the ACC folds there will be a P3.........best scenario is for the ACC to survive

Edited August 10, 2023 by JAFFX2

[TallyBull]

8 minutes ago, I like GOOOOLD (and green) said:

Pitt vs WVU is legitimately one of the best rivalries in the game and makes sense with Cincy and Louisville as a pod.  They are going to the Big 12.  GT is going to the BIG, they have historical ties to that conference going back like a hundred years.  That leaves three schools.  Even if it were the 5 you mention that’s not coming close to competing with the XII in anything.  

The Big 12 and the B1G are only interested in increasing value for their conferences and increasing payments for their existing membership. They certainly don't care about what they perceive to be "quaint" rivalries or historical ties. Seems to me that much has been made abundantly clear in CFB since significant realignment began.

I think you're looking at this in the old way, but we're now living in a new reality. I just don't see the Big 12 or B1G wanting any of these clearly out or bubble schools (although in the latter case, some kind of argument could be made). I could be wrong and time will tell, but I don't think I am.

Edited August 10, 2023 by TallyBull

[JAFFX2]

4 hours ago, TallyBull said:

I appreciate your thoughts, but I disagree. I think the ACC will carry on and rival the Big 12. I also think you can split up the ACC into roughly three groups, and members in two of those three groups are either unlikely, or may or may not be able, to find a new home in another "P5" conference.

Likely staying in a future ACC because the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 don't want them:

• Pittsburgh
• Syracuse
• Boston College
• Wake Forest
• Georgia Tech (tough one, could be on the bubble)

On the bubble:

• Virginia
• Virginia Tech
• NC State
• Louisville
• Duke

Likely departures:

• FSU
• Miami
• North Carolina
• Clemson
• Notre Dame

The B1G, SEC and XII are ultimately striving for 20+ teams.  If the ACC implodes don't kid yourself because the XII would pick up Pitt, Louisville, NC State and GT in a heartbeat

[USF_Bullsharks]

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Northwestern is smaller.

 

 

Google search shows about 1,500 more at NU. Could be wrong though. 

[michibull]

I feel that the ACC is much more entertaining than the B12, if they can stick together and add a few pieces, they would still be the 3rd best conference (provided they only lost FSU and Clemson), they just need to weather the storm. I think there is getting to be enough bad press now that I don’t see everyone bolting like the PAC12. 

[TallyBull]

14 minutes ago, JAFFX2 said:

The B1G, SEC and XII are ultimately striving for 20+ teams.  If the ACC implodes don't kid yourself because the XII would pick up Pitt, Louisville, NC State and GT in a heartbeat

Not kidding myself, I just disagree the ACC would implode. I think it'll fetch as much $$$ for its members after FSU/Clemson leave as the Big 12 does for its members, so why jump ship? 

The PAC-12 meltdown was pretty historic. I don't expect it to happen again. I think the ACC will continue to exist right around the same level as the Big 12. The B1G and the SEC will make the most money, but the Big 12 and ACC will continue to have playoff access and a decent amount of money, just not on the same level as the B1G and the SEC. 

[bulloni]

22 minutes ago, TallyBull said:

The Big 12 and the B1G are only interested in increasing value for their conferences and increasing payments for their existing membership. They certainly don't care about what they perceive to be "quaint" rivalries or historical ties. Seems to me that much has been made abundantly clear in CFB since significant realignment began.

I think you're looking at this in the old way, but we're now living in a new reality. I just don't see the Big 12 or B1G wanting any of these clearly out or bubble schools (although in the latter case, some kind of argument could be made). I could be wrong and time will tell, but I don't think I am.

100%

Also the networks are already realizing they are at risk of over extending themselves and the bids got a lot lower for the PAC.

It’s like buying a house. The network might like one for $x per square feet. Then they might be willing to get an addition at that same price. But they also have an overall budget

just because they can afford 16 schools for 480 million doesn’t mean they can afford 24 schools for 720 million

[michibull]

1 minute ago, TallyBull said:

Not kidding myself, I just disagree the ACC would implode. I think it'll fetch as much $$$ for its members after FSU/Clemson leave as the Big 12 does for its members, so why jump ship? 

The PAC-12 meltdown was pretty historic. I don't expect it to happen again. I think the ACC will continue to exist right around the same level as the Big 12. The B1G and the SEC will make the most money, but the Big 12 and ACC will continue to have playoff access and a decent amount of money, just not on the same level as the B1G and the SEC. 

Agreed, ever since the conference expansion started in earnest (with the SEC and B1G) I always felt it would end up with 4 major conferences, although I thought it would be the PAC12 instead of the B12. I still think this is where it ends up, just too many teams to cram into 3 conferences.