Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[TallyBull]

4 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I still don't see Stanford and Cal joining up with the AAC. They may try going football independent for a bit until things settle down and just do some sort of scheduling partnership with the MWC and/or AAC. Their non-revenue sports could just join the MWC for the time being as well.  I definitely don't see us only getting Oregon State and Washington State unless ESPN really wanted to keep them away from the MWC/FOX and CBS. However, if I am wrong, I don't see any scenario where those schools would want to be locked into a GOR with the AAC. 

Not a reach. We don't want to sign a GOR either. Doubt anybody will.

As for going independent, Stanford might be able to pull it off (?), but Cal is apparently under a mountain of stadium debt. Both schools are already taking huge unanticipated hits to their budgets, which could be mitigated somewhat in the short term by joining a conference that would probably negotiate increased revenue due to their additions. And I don't think it's as easy as you suggest to enter into scheduling agreements with other conferences - we're talking about who they're going to play next season, not years down the road, and the other conferences have to agree.

I don't know how this will all shake out in the end. Maybe you're right. But if their pride prevents them from joining our conference, well... good luck with that! 

[Cat941]

The info that we are hearing about the ACC not expanding could just be a smokescreen.  Ha ha we got ya.  Just kidding.  We're adding the PAC leftovers and SMU.  Might as well throw in Tulane and UConn.  I'm just too jaded and doubt that anyone knows at this point.

[Rocky Style]

7 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Exactly I don’t see it either. We will probably see a similar thing that went down between the Big East trying to lure some big 12 schools. Basically some big east schools left for offers of the p5. Wont be shocked to see 8 schools from both MWC & AAC head to PAC

It could happen.  I was just typing that one out on the side here.  

[flsportsfan83]

Our best hope was the ACC not expanding. If we somehow end up in a conference with the PAC 4, then things are looking up.

[BullyPulpit]

10 minutes ago, TallyBull said:

Not a reach. We don't want to sign a GOR either. Doubt anybody will.

As for going independent, Stanford might be able to pull it off (?), but Cal is apparently under a mountain of stadium debt. Both schools are already taking huge unanticipated hits to their budgets, which could be mitigated somewhat in the short term by joining a conference that would probably negotiate increased revenue due to their additions. And I don't think it's as easy as you suggest to enter into scheduling agreements with other conferences - we're talking about who they're going to play next season, not years down the road, and the other conferences have to agree.

I don't know how this will all shake out in the end. Maybe you're right. But if their pride prevents them from joining our conference, well... good luck with that! 

Their only other options are either to join the AAC or poach teams from the AAC to join a new PAC. They can't have any MWC teams until 2025, so they would have to take 4 to 6 teams from the AAC and then 4 to 6 teams from the MWC in 2025 to try and make that work. The issue with that is ESPN and FOX are unlikely to play ball on that deal. They are in the business of consolidation at this point. They essentially froze the PAC 12 out in negotiations and the Apple+ deal was maybe going to be worth $20 million per school, at best, and that was with the full PAC 12 that included valuable properties in Arizona, Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Apple+ is only paying $250 million per year for the MLS and all the programming and teams that brings in. I couldn't see them justifying anywhere near that to get watered down PAC 12 football.   

I suppose that ESPN could look at it as an opportunity to consolidate. Take the top of the MWC and the top of the AAC and render those conferences worthless moving forward. The issue for USF and the other teams out East would be getting to 8 teams that make sense for travel and division for the non-revenue sports. Memphis, Tulane, USF, SMU....then I suppose Tulsa, Rice, ECU, and maybe UAB. You don't want to end up with 4 teams in Texas, IMO. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by BullyPulpit

[John Lewis]

8 minutes ago, flsportsfan83 said:

then things are looking up.

[I like GOOOOLD (and green)]

15 hours ago, Outlaw said:

I dont really think uva adds anything to the SEC. They have been terrible at football for awhile and the SEC doesn't really need the virginia market.

UVA is classic BIG market, not SEC.

[TallyBull]

6 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Their only other options are either to join the AAC or poach teams from the AAC to join a new PAC. They can't have any MWC teams until 2025, so they would have to take 4 to 6 teams from the AAC and then 4 to 6 teams from the MWC in 2025 to try and make that work. The issue with that is ESPN and FOX are unlikely to play ball on that deal. They are in the business of consolidation at this point. They essentially froze the PAC 12 out in negotiations and the Apple+ deal was maybe going to be worth $20 million per school, at best, and that was with the full PAC 12 that included valuable properties in Arizona, Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Apple+ is only paying $250 million per year for the MLS and all the programming and teams that brings in. I couldn't see them justifying anywhere near that to get watered down PAC 12 football.   

I agree with most of this. I just think the most likely outcome is that at least 3 of the 4 PAC, possibly all 4, join the AAC for at least the near term. The AAC's contract with ESPN permits renegotiation to add teams. ESPN seems to be lacking west coast inventory at the moment, since it's all gotten gobbled up by the B1G and the Big 12. They might be willing to pay more on their existing contract with AAC if the AAC brings some or all of the PAC-4. 

[Outlaw]

Just now, I like GOOOOLD (and green) said:

UVA is classic BIG market, not SEC.

Yep got to add some more cupcakes for OSU and Michigan to beat to claim they are top 25 teams. I hope Oregon and Washington knock them out consistently. B1g is so overrated when it comes to having championship caliber teams. They claim osu and Michigan is as good as the best programs but really they are not . BAMA,GEORGIA, and CLEMSON  have dominated the college football playoffs. It was cool to see Tcu win the opener and get annihilated by Georgia.  

[TallyBull]

Put another way, the deal is probably dead, but please don’t stop clicking on my articles!