Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Cubanbull]

1 minute ago, Bull Matrix said:

There were rumors a while ago that Kansas wanted out. Not sure if Kansas still wants out but it makes since that the big 12 is aiming at strengthening their hoops line up with Houston, Cincy, and now Gonzaga & Uconn. I wonder how long the football schools will allow the basketball schools dictate the big 12. Seems like the old big east to me 

Kansas like the rest of Big12 might want to go but neither SEC nor BigTen wants them. Bigger fish available 

[USF_Bullsharks]

ESPN is not going broke. They're at an inflection point of how to continue to grow subscribers and fee revenue with the disruption in the cable industry. They will figure it out. 10 years ago they were making more and more money every year without having to really innovate outside of content, now the revenue growth has slowed and cable subscribers have alternative options via streaming. Once ESPN shifts from heavily relying on cable distribution, to streaming distribution, they will once again grow their fees and be in the driver's seat of TV negotiations across sports. Once that happens, many other services will also be available to offer production and distribution, and hopefully the competition keeps conference tv payouts up. Would not be surprised to see Amazon, Netflix, and Liberty join in with Fox and Disney as primary NCAA competitors. Imagine an SEC-based "Drive to Survive" or "Full Swing" style show with Liberty/Netflix as production/distribution partners. F1 and PGA/LIV sure aren't complaining. 

[GoBulls84]

19 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

There were rumors a while ago that Kansas wanted out. Not sure if Kansas still wants out but it makes since that the big 12 is aiming at strengthening their hoops line up with Houston, Cincy, and now Gonzaga & Uconn. I wonder how long the football schools will allow the basketball schools dictate the big 12. Seems like the old big east to me 

The Big 12 schools and commissioner appear to be on the same page with each other. They all are very keenly aware that they won't be keeping up with the Joneses in the B1G and SEC. They also know they have a VERY strong basketball conference, possibly the best in the country, so they've decided that while football is stable, they may as well further feed the basketball strength of the conference, hence targeting schools like UConn and Gonzaga.

[michibull]

6 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

The Big 12 schools and commissioner appear to be on the same page with each other

This is why I can’t see the ACC paying the top teams more than the rest. That’s what got the B12 in trouble to begin with (Texas getting the big piece of the pie and I think so did Oklahoma, then Colorado said f you and Nebraska left too). The ACC would be making the same mistake and that would be foolish, because it will end the same way. 

[Bull Matrix]

3 minutes ago, michibull said:

This is why I can’t see the ACC paying the top teams more than the rest. That’s what got the B12 in trouble to begin with (Texas getting the big piece of the pie and I think so did Oklahoma, then Colorado said f you and Nebraska left too). The ACC would be making the same mistake and that would be foolish, because it will end the same way. 

Exactly! Unless they came up with a deal that helped paid the winners more which would make it a great incentive for all the teams in the conference to try to win. 

[Bull94]

21 minutes ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

ESPN is not going broke. They're at an inflection point of how to continue to grow subscribers and fee revenue with the disruption in the cable industry. They will figure it out. 10 years ago they were making more and more money every year without having to really innovate outside of content, now the revenue growth has slowed and cable subscribers have alternative options via streaming. Once ESPN shifts from heavily relying on cable distribution, to streaming distribution, they will once again grow their fees and be in the driver's seat of TV negotiations across sports. Once that happens, many other services will also be available to offer production and distribution, and hopefully the competition keeps conference tv payouts up. Would not be surprised to see Amazon, Netflix, and Liberty join in with Fox and Disney as primary NCAA competitors. Imagine an SEC-based "Drive to Survive" or "Full Swing" style show with Liberty/Netflix as production/distribution partners. F1 and PGA/LIV sure aren't complaining. 

ESPN collects something like $8B per year in carriage fees. Those are going away as cable cords get cut at near 14% per year.

Here is an article that says ESPN will have to charge $36.30 per month for their streaming service just to break even with their losses from carriage fees.

Diamond broadcasting is going bankrupt they are now in negotiations with mlb, nba, and nhl teams to cut their payouts. all due to lower carriage fees.

people who think revenues will grow from here are delusional.

 

In an a la carte scenario, Nathanson postulates that ESPN's distribution dwindles to about 16.81 percent of TV homes, matching its reach. With the smaller distribution footprint, advertising revenue also goes down.

Disney would have to charge a per-sub fee of $36.30 to maintain its current margins, Nathanson postulates.

 

Just a moment...

 

[USF_Bullsharks]

People continue to be born, colleges continue to issue degrees, fan bases continue to demand coverage - revenues will continue to grow. The margins will be lower initially as it requires far more investments to build out the new distribution platform and strategy. Long term, they will be fine. 

[Bull94]

10 minutes ago, michibull said:

This is why I can’t see the ACC paying the top teams more than the rest. That’s what got the B12 in trouble to begin with (Texas getting the big piece of the pie and I think so did Oklahoma, then Colorado said f you and Nebraska left too). The ACC would be making the same mistake and that would be foolish, because it will end the same way. 

that's eventually where all the conferences will end up. split revenues.

people (and athletic departments) are out for their own best interests.

eventually the top 30 or so programs will break off and form their own league.

[Bull Matrix]

2 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

ESPN collects something like $8B per year in carriage fees. Those are going away as cable cords get cut at near 14% per year.

Here is an article that says ESPN will have to charge $36.30 per month for their streaming service just to break even with their losses from carriage fees.

Diamond broadcasting is going bankrupt they are now in negotiations with mlb, nba, and nhl teams to cut their payouts. all due to lower carriage fees.

people who think revenues will grow from here are delusional.

 

In an a la carte scenario, Nathanson postulates that ESPN's distribution dwindles to about 16.81 percent of TV homes, matching its reach. With the smaller distribution footprint, advertising revenue also goes down.

Disney would have to charge a per-sub fee of $36.30 to maintain its current margins, Nathanson postulates.

 

Just a moment...

 

Yeah I been hearing that they have been in trouble. Also I do believe I heard they are getting sold off by Disney if that has not already happened. Also factor in more competitors and you see that ESPN is no longer the giant that they used to be…

[Bull94]

Just now, USF_Bullsharks said:

People continue to be born, colleges continue to issue degrees, fan bases continue to demand coverage - revenues will continue to grow. The margins will be lower initially as it requires far more investments to build out the new distribution platform and strategy. Long term, they will be fine. 

maybe with inflation but carriage fees make up 80% of what ESPN makes in revenue. Advertising is 20%.

when they go to streaming (which they will be forced to do kicking and screaming) they will lose all those people that never watch their channel but still have to pay for it. here is an article that says at the current rate of cable cancellations , espn will be losing about $3B per year in revenue

read up on Bally and their bankruptcy proceedings with mlb, nba, and nhl.

ESPN's grip on cable TV loosens as streaming strategy surges

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ESPN was once America's largest cable network.