Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Peatearpan]

9 minutes ago, USFDan said:

Two thoughts on all of this realignment:

 

1. is there potential for antitrust lawsuits as college football consolidates into fewer big time conferences?

2. Can USF afford to build new facilities (stadium, etc,) if they get left behind? Are we better planning everything as shovel ready for if we get called up? Or is it we can’t afford not to? Factoring in inflation, what kind of tv contract can we expect in a watered down AAC?

I feel like there has to be an antitrust lawsuit. I mean two conferences are consolidating all the power and getting all the money, that in turn is boxing out the other 90 or so teams.

I still agree with our decision to build new facilities. It is a day late and a dollar short it seems. If we didn’t attempt to build the stadium, we would have essentially given the impression that we do not care at all. At that point, how would we get the invite to a better league?

Our goals should be:

1. Build the stadium

2. Create some excitement around the program especially for the students

3. Win now, and don’t stop winning.

If we show the investments into the program, build that buzz, and continually put good product on the field we will get the call up. Tampa is already a good market, and it is only getting bigger.

#BEATBYU and create that excitement!

[Cubanbull]

16 minutes ago, USFDan said:

Two thoughts on all of this realignment:

 

1. is there potential for antitrust lawsuits as college football consolidates into fewer big time conferences?

2. Can USF afford to build new facilities (stadium, etc,) if they get left behind? Are we better planning everything as shovel ready for if we get called up? Or is it we can’t afford not to? Factoring in inflation, what kind of tv contract can we expect in a watered down AAC?

#1 Doubtful that any lawsuits will stop realignment of P2

#2 USF can’t afford to wait,it must either be pro active and build or just drop out completely. Those are really the two options. As for TV contract,USF for now will make an avg of 7 million a year as long as they are in AAC for duration of contract 2032

[Triple B]

15 hours ago, Brad said:

Hard to believe, but this is the thread of the day!  The old realignment thread.  Real good discussion on here from MANY.  It’s been great insight,  Thank you!

Don't get me wrong, I find this stuff ultra informative but it's way above my pay grade to follow coherently so I am kind of missing the MHver throwing **** against the wall to see what sticks musings.

[Sk00b]

35 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

Create some excitement around the program especially for the students

This one is very important. It is the reason we are all here on page 2503.  If you gathered alumn from the last 10 years i bet we missed a lot of potential fans. 

[Outlaw]

14 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Don't get me wrong, I find this stuff ultra informative but it's way above my pay grade to follow coherently so I am kind of missing the MHver throwing **** against the wall to see what sticks musings.

I predict we will still be in the American for the next few years unless we drastically improve  . I don't think any one knows they just make up stuff to fit their narrative  of improving their teams conference. 

[Jim Johnson]

4 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

#1 Doubtful that any lawsuits will stop realignment of P2

#2 USF can’t afford to wait,it must either be pro active and build or just drop out completely. Those are really the two options. As for TV contract,USF for now will make an avg of 7 million a year as long as they are in AAC for duration of contract 2032

The threat of a lawsuit will slow the realignment of P2 as a new division on their own.  Right now there is technically a path for Ave Maria University in the NAIA todau to move up to Division I football if it wanted to do so.  It is not an easy path, but it is a path which is enough to address anti-trust options.

If the Big Ten and SEC decide to form their own division (or new subdivision), you can absolutely bet that schools across the country will be looking at class action suits left and right.  Remember, the entire reason why every conference was part of the Bowl Alliance and the BCS and the CFP is because Tulane's then president (Scott Cowen) rallied a bunch of G5 schools into threatening a lawsuit against the P5.

Which means if there is a new division, it won't be for only two conferences for long.  A third and possibly fourth conference will rise up.  The criteria to move into this new division will certainly be harder than moving from FCS to FBS - which are: offering a number of sports (men & women), meeting attendance minimums, providing a certain amount of financial aid (scholarships), and scheduling of opponents.   [NOTE: The same is true if they leave the NCAA to form a wholly new association, even if it's just for football.]

If there is no path for a school like USF to get to the same level as the Big Ten and SEC, that would be grounds for anti-trust.  If the path is wholly unreasonable, like USF has to average 50,000 fans per game for ten years first, that also could be grounds for anti-trust.  There is a reason why 16 teams have moved from FCS to FBS since USF moved up in 2001 (7 of which both started a new football program AND moved to FBS in that time).

Edited August 7, 2022 by Jim Johnson

[Jim Johnson]

6 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

I don’t think anyone is letting anyone leave early. That’ll blow up the conference and leave a lot of schools stranded. ESPN would be pissed to. Nobody in college football has any desire to rescue the likes of Clemson and FSU from the ACC. That includes ESPN, the SEC, Big 10 and especially the other ACC schools. 

ESPN won't care if FSU is in the ACC or SEC, they own the rights to both.  Just like they didn't care that Syracuse left the Big East and moved to the ACC... in fact they helped.  ESPN could do the same thing to build a stronger SEC to compete with the Big Ten.  Will they? Who knows... but ESPN would not be pissed if the ACC is blown up... they could save $$ on that contract and focus on the SEC where they really invest their money.

And don't think of it as a rescue... think of what the SEC and Big Ten will do as trying to get more inventory with the best available brands to justify asking for billions of dollars from networks and streaming services.. 

You are probably right that no one will leave early without a fight... but they will leave eventually.

[Bull Matrix]

5 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

The threat of a lawsuit will slow the realignment of P2 as a new division on their own.  Right now there is technically a path for Ave Maria University in the NAIA todau to move up to Division I football if it wanted to do s0.  It is not an easy path, but it is a path which is enough to address anti-trust options.

If the Big Ten and SEC decide to form their own division (or new subdivision), you can absolutely bet that schools across the country will be looking at class action suits left and right.  Remember, the entire reason why every conference was part of the Bowl Alliance and the BCS and the CFP is because Tulane's then president (Scott Cowen) rallied a bunch of G5 schools into threatening a lawsuit against the P5.

Which means if there is a new division, it won't be for only two conferences for long.  A third and possibly fourth conference will rise up.  The criteria to move into this new division will certainly be harder than moving from FCS to FBS - which are: offering a number of sports (men & women), meeting attendance minimums, providing a certain amount of financial aid (scholarships), and scheduling of opponents.   [NOTE: The same is true if they leave the NCAA to form a wholly new association, even if it's just for football.]

If there is no path for a school like USF to get to the same level as the Big Ten and SEC, that would be grounds for anti-trust.  If the path is wholly unreasonable, like USF has to average 50,000 fans per game for ten years first, that also could be grounds for anti-trust.  There is a reason why 16 teams have moved from FCS to FBS since USF moved up in 2001 (7 of which both started a new football program AND moved to FBS in that time).

Plus now that everyone saw Cincy make the playoffs while in a G5 conference. 

[Eric Ruby]

45 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

ESPN won't care if FSU is in the ACC or SEC, they own the rights to both.  Just like they didn't care that Syracuse left the Big East and moved to the ACC... in fact they helped.  ESPN could do the same thing to build a stronger SEC to compete with the Big Ten.  Will they? Who knows... but ESPN would not be pissed if the ACC is blown up... they could save $$ on that contract and focus on the SEC where they really invest their money.

And don't think of it as a rescue... think of what the SEC and Big Ten will do as trying to get more inventory with the best available brands to justify asking for billions of dollars from networks and streaming services.. 

You are probably right that no one will leave early without a fight... but they will leave eventually.

Right, no matter what, the ACC won’t exist eventually. This is way different that the Big East thing. ESPN invested a lot into the ACC. They don’t run things how fans would prefer, they run things to what makes financial sense. They created an ACC Network and put a lot into that. Why would ESPN want to pay 2-4 more schools they get cheap and pay them another $60 mil a year? ESPN doesn’t care if they’re frantic now, too bad. They signed the deal. Plus ESPN gets FSU vs FL, Ga v Ga Tech, Clemson v South Carolina now, too. What if FSU and Clemson get poached by Fox and the B1G? B1G would love to tap into FL. USF fans should hope the ACC stays together. If it falls apart, the big 10 and SEC will gobble up the teams they want and the rest will join the Big12. 

[Cubanbull]

7 minutes ago, Eric Ruby said:

Right, no matter what, the ACC won’t exist eventually. This is way different that the Big East thing. ESPN invested a lot into the ACC. They don’t run things how fans would prefer, they run things to what makes financial sense. They created an ACC Network and put a lot into that. Why would ESPN want to pay 2-4 more schools they get cheap and pay them another $60 mil a year? ESPN doesn’t care if they’re frantic now, too bad. They signed the deal. Plus ESPN gets FSU vs FL, Ga v Ga Tech, Clemson v South Carolina now, too. What if FSU and Clemson get poached by Fox and the B1G? B1G would love to tap into FL. USF fans should hope the ACC stays together. If it falls apart, the big 10 and SEC will gobble up the teams they want and the rest will join the Big12. 

You could ask the same on why any network would want to pay 30 million for BYU,UCF,UC and UH that they had at 7 million. It’s not as easy as just looking at what one team is getting in one league and what it gets as part of the other.

But you are correct on one thing, ESPN controls ACC until 2036, why would they want to see ACC fail and get raided? If it does ESPN would not only lose some ACC teams to Fox and others but push the big fish Notre Dame right into BigTen and Fox.

So it is in ESPN best financials to keep ACC intact, if they control both SEC and ACC they already have those match ups you pointed out. But in order to do that they must keep the ACC deal be at least a good deal as to not have BigTen raide it.

So we are once again back to the question on how can ESPN and ACC re- visit the contract to keep league members from bailing out or looking to bail out. This is why sooner or later but before 5 years ACC will need to look at additions and unbalanced payouts.