Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Friscobull]

1 hour ago, FanFromAfar said:

 Flyover states and Texas, although I'd never live there, care greatly about their college athletics. 

 

Never say never,  we always have room for another tool in Texas, it is a big state, however my request is to stay in Cali, stay afar my brother.

[Jim Johnson]

11 minutes ago, Eric Ruby said:

It does not matter. No ACC team makes any $$ for those way games in a new conference. They’re not gonna make 50% of the $100 mil playing away games. Plus the ESPN $500 mil buyout + $120 mil exit fee. No team will do that. They’ll be negative.

Here is how it COULD work:

Florida State moves to the SEC, and takes it's rights to TV games with them.  They agree to pay the ACC what ESPN was paying the ACC for those games - about $17 million was paid in 2021-2022 - through 2036.  They get $100 million per year from the new SEC.  Any school can offer to buy back their rights, and the ACC isn't technically out any money.  FSU also agrees to pay the exit fee over the same period.

There is no buyout for the ESPN contract itself, especially because the SEC is an ESPN conference.  FSU would only pay to buy back their Grant of Rights and the conference exit fees  The $500 million is what some people estimate the combined payout for GOR and Exit fees would be if it were a lump sum... That is spread over 14 years it's $35 million per year, which would still give FSU a significant "profit."

What is stopping that from happening?  ACC teams agreeing to allow three to five teams to leave under these circumstances... Imagine Wake Forest being told that FSU, Miami, UNC, and Ga Tech are leaving (along with Notre Dame)... with 10 team remaining, Wake would get 14 million per year in addition to whatever they get in the new ESPN contract... which is 180% of what they would make in the same period if those teams stay.

Every ACC team knows that come sometime in the 2030s the ACC will break up, so it it better to remain whole for as long as possible? Or is it better for the teams that will not be invited to the Big Ten or SEC to try to get as much money from departing teams now?

 

[Gat-Rat Bull]

This thread is so awesome. Plus, after reading the past few days I feel like I have an honorary law degree.

Seriously, though, I am learning a lot and enjoying everyone's thoughts on this topic. Keep it rolling! 

[NewEnglandBull]

24 minutes ago, Friscobull said:

Never say never,  we always have room for another tool in Texas, it is a big state, however my request is to stay in Cali, stay afar my brother.

…I knew you were going to jump all over that statement. That’s one thing about this board, we all love the geographic areas that we live in.

[Eric Ruby]

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Here is how it COULD work:

Florida State moves to the SEC, and takes it's rights to TV games with them.  They agree to pay the ACC what ESPN was paying the ACC for those games - about $17 million was paid in 2021-2022 - through 2036.  They get $100 million per year from the new SEC.  Any school can offer to buy back their rights, and the ACC isn't technically out any money.  FSU also agrees to pay the exit fee over the same period.

There is no buyout for the ESPN contract itself, especially because the SEC is an ESPN conference.  FSU would only pay to buy back their Grant of Rights and the conference exit fees  The $500 million is what some people estimate the combined payout for GOR and Exit fees would be if it were a lump sum... That is spread over 14 years it's $35 million per year, which would still give FSU a significant "profit."

What is stopping that from happening?  ACC teams agreeing to allow three to five teams to leave under these circumstances... Imagine Wake Forest being told that FSU, Miami, UNC, and Ga Tech are leaving (along with Notre Dame)... with 10 team remaining, Wake would get 14 million per year in addition to whatever they get in the new ESPN contract... which is 180% of what they would make in the same period if those teams stay.

Every ACC team knows that come sometime in the 2030s the ACC will break up, so it it better to remain whole for as long as possible? Or is it better for the teams that will not be invited to the Big Ten or SEC to try to get as much money from departing teams now?

 

No. If the SEC wanted to pay FSU $100 mil a year, that entire $100 mil goes to to ACC. Not the $35 mil. It’s not what ESPN is paying them now, it ALL rights. Meaning it’ll never be money minus what the other conference offers. So if the the Big 10 says we’ll pay FSU $100 mil, the ACC gets $35 mil. It’s a ACC gets 100% of that $100 mil.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Eric Ruby

[Jim Johnson]

8 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

No. If the SEC wanted to pay FSU $100 mil a year, that entire $100 mil goes to to ACC. Not the $35 mil. It’s not what ESPN is paying them now, it ALL rights. Meaning it’ll never be money minus what the other conference offers. So if the the Big 10 says we’ll pay FSU $100 mil, the ACC gets $35 mil. It’s a ACC gets 100% of that $100 mil.

Sigh. 

In the hypothetical I proposed, the ACC would agree to release FSU from the GoR in exchange for getting $35 million per year.  Right now FSU gets $17 million from the ACC for ESPN (it gets more for bowl game appearances and NCAA basketball money).  So, to the ACC, Florida State's rights are worth $17 million per year (it goes up slightly each year through 2036).

It's a question for Boston College and Louisville and Pittsburgh and Syracuse -- would they allow FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc to "buy out" their GoR early? Or make them stay part of the conference until 2036, knowing they will be gone anyway?

Edited August 7, 2022 by Jim Johnson

[Jim Johnson]

An interesting article about the source of the TV money battles that have reshaped college football - the 1984 Supreme Court decision

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/article264068951.html

Edited August 7, 2022 by Jim Johnson

[Eric Ruby]

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Sigh. 

In the hypothetical I proposed, the ACC would agree to release FSU from the GoR in exchange for getting $35 million per year.  Right now FSU gets $17 million from the ACC for ESPN (it gets more for bowl game appearances and NCAA basketball money).  So, to the ACC, Florida State's rights are worth $17 million per year (it goes up slightly each year through 2036).

It's a question for Boston College and Louisville and Pittsburgh and Syracuse -- would they allow FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc to "buy out" their GoR early? Or make them stay part of the conference until 2036, knowing they will be gone anyway?

I don’t think anyone is letting anyone leave early. That’ll blow up the conference and leave a lot of schools stranded. ESPN would be pissed to. Nobody in college football has any desire to rescue the likes of Clemson and FSU from the ACC. That includes ESPN, the SEC, Big 10 and especially the other ACC schools. 

[Cubanbull]

1 hour ago, Eric Ruby said:

I don’t think anyone is letting anyone leave early. That’ll blow up the conference and leave a lot of schools stranded. ESPN would be pissed to. Nobody in college football has any desire to rescue the likes of Clemson and FSU from the ACC. That includes ESPN, the SEC, Big 10 and especially the other ACC schools. 

Correct and that’s why I keep repeating that the only way that the ACC can get extra revenue is by revisiting its contract and that can only happen by adding members. It was the reason they were looking at some type of alliance with PAC .As the years go by and the SEC and BigTen money gap increases, that pressure on the ACC will increase.

[USFDan]

Two thoughts on all of this realignment:

 

1. is there potential for antitrust lawsuits as college football consolidates into fewer big time conferences?

2. Can USF afford to build new facilities (stadium, etc,) if they get left behind? Are we better planning everything as shovel ready for if we get called up? Or is it we can’t afford not to? Factoring in inflation, what kind of tv contract can we expect in a watered down AAC?