Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[NewEnglandBull]

ESPN executives with our current tv contract 

[Brad]

 

 

I wonder if F*#@ ESPN shirts would sell?

[BullyPulpit]

53 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

My only concern now is if the MWC goes after SMU, Tulane, and/or Memphis. Unlikely, but I’ve seen crazier things these past few months with college football. 

I wouldn't be too concerned with that. They would only leave if it meant the MWC media rights deal was paying them substantially more money, which would mean our payout would be dipping significantly below $4 million (down to $2 million???). Given that it would cost them each at least $10 million to leave the conference, we would be earning more from their buyout money than our media rights deal. The departing teams (Cincy, UCF, Houston, SMU and Tulsa) would be paying at least $50 million to leave. If there were 6 teams splitting that revenue, that would mean $8.333 million to each remaining team. Their NCAA tournament points also belong to the conference, so that money would only have to be split amongst the remaining members. Right now, the AAC has about 30 units total over the current 6 year cycle, with a really bad year in 2015 about to come off the books. Assuming just a similar performance the next season or two, the conference stands to make about $29.4 million over the next 6 years off of its NCAA points. That would be an additional $4.9 million per remaining school. In total, the remaining schools would receive about $13.25 million from the departing teams. That would be enough to cover the shortfall for 3 years after the teams ultimately depart. Assuming they wait the two years to join their new conferences, USF would be ok financially through 2026-2027. Hopefully, by then, there would be a path to a better conference. 

Edited October 1, 2021 by BullyPulpit

[BullyPulpit]

On the note of the NCAA tournament points, Cincy and Houston are a significant loss to the conference. They accounted for 62% if the conference's NCAA points over the last 6 years. Cincy has historically underachieved in the tournament, only winning 3 games in that time span and never advancing past the second round, but the years of our conference having 4 teams in the tournament are over. We are likely a 2 bid conference from here on out, maybe 3 in a good year. Memphis, Wichita State, and SMU are poised to be the torchbearers. 

[William Armstrong]

2 hours ago, Roaming Bull said:

 

independent status here we come!

Im curious about becoming an independent is that  bad ,do we have the finances to be independent 

[UCF_rustbucket]

4 minutes ago, William Armstrong said:

Im curious about becoming an independent is that  bad ,do we have the finances to be independent 

 

Depending on who the AAC adds, I can see USF score a better football tv deal as an independent. The question is will it be better by enough to make it worth while paying the AAC exit fee, give up the shared basketball credits, give up the payout from the teams headed to the Big 12, and very likely have to downgrade the other sports to the Atlantic Sun because the AAC will definitely not let USF take football out and leave everything else in.

[BullyPulpit]

3 minutes ago, William Armstrong said:

Im curious about becoming an independent is that  bad ,do we have the finances to be independent 

It becomes problematic because you still need to generate revenue. How much would a media provider be willing to pay annually for rights to broadcast USF athletics? My guess is not much. What then becomes of your non-revenue sports? All football independents have a home for their other sports. We would be looking at CUSA or the Sun Belt. That might save us some money on travel. Certainly, if we were only making $250,000 per year from our conference media rights it would be something worth considering but so long as we are making north of $2 million from the media rights, it is highly unlikely that it would be worth our while. 

That doesn't even begin to get into the issue of trying to schedule games. We could expect games against Army, UCONN, Liberty, and UMASS on a regular basis. The Independents almost become de facto conference mates. 

[BullyPulpit]

2 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

 

Depending on who the AAC adds, I can see USF score a better football tv deal as an independent. The question is will it be better by enough to make it worth while paying the AAC exit fee, give up the shared basketball credits, give up the payout from the teams headed to the Big 12, and very likely have to downgrade the other sports to the Atlantic Sun because the AAC will definitely not let USF take football out and leave everything else in.

There aren't nearly enough positives to justify the move. So long as USF positions itself to get on the P5 carousel at some point we should be ok. The first step in all of this is getting the OCS approved. The window for that is somewhat small, so I hope the rumors on this board turnout to be true. 

[Peatearpan]

What a week of announcements! MWC stays together! Crickets on the stadium!

[Rocky Style]

10 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

What a week of announcements! MWC stays together! Crickets on the stadium!

This sadness has defeated me.