Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Quo Vadis]

So nobody seems to believe that the Big "12" will be happy at 10 for the forseeable future?

 

I think they are happy, and  so are FOX and ESPN.  However, should the B1G or SEC raid the ACC, then the Big 12 might be spurred to try and scoop up FSU and Clemson or maybe Miami, and in that case those schools would be amenable. But IMO there are big roadblocks to USF being a component in that kind of movement, either to the Big 12 or ACC.

 

From a financial standpoint they likely are happy, but the big question is if the lack of a title game will hurt them in the calculations of the new BCS.  SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC-12 all get an extra game with two ranked opponents.  The victor of each gets their resume polished a little bit.

 

The championship game is clearly important to the Big XII since Bowlsy is asking the NCAA to allow it even though they only have ten members. 

 

These are all the bowls currently floating in the air.  Will the NCAA allow a ten team conference to have a championship game?  If not, will not having a title game hurt the chances of a Big XII team playing in the four team playoff?  Will adding the extra two teams cost the Big XII members any money?  Would FSU join and how much will it cost them to exit their conference (this is a factor because the exit fee is enormous if it holds - BE leftovers probably have to pay $15M to exit and will be receiving an influx of TV money in return; there's more incentive for a team like USF and UCF to move than for FSU)? 

 

If Fox is willing to ensure that the Big XII members lose zero dollars then expansion is a no brainer IF the NCAA does not allow them a title game anyways. 

 

I don't think FSU has the financial incentive to move, not to the Big XII.  B1G?  Sure, but unless they get into the AAU it will not happen.  SEC?  Again, sure, but doubtful. 

 

I also think the B1G would be interested in expanding to Florida, but they are academic snobs.  Nebraska was at least in the AAU at one point.  I doubt they sneak another one in.  If FSU can get in then the B1G may expand south with GT and FSU.

 

Yet I doubt anyone in the ACC moves.  I'm not sure the SEC wants to expand again.  The B1G would, but I'd suspect they'd look to snag Duke and UNC to help knock their basketball out of the park (not to mention academics). 

 

If the BXII is told outright that they cannot have a title game then who knows?  I do think they have seriously looked at USF and UCF as alternatives to FSU.  They could also look at Cincinnati and one of USF/UCF to expand to Ohio and Florida, though a twofer in Florida is probably better than trying to get into Ohio.  USF and UCF can gain inroads, especially with their urban locations and large student populations.  I'm originally from Ohio and the rest of the state thinks that Cincinnati is part of Kentucky.  The people up in Cleveland and Columbus won't take much interest.

 

The student populations at USF and UCF plus access to Florida recruits makes them both able to surpass FSU over the next decade plus.  UCF at 60,000 students has got to be appealing.   

Good point about the Big 12 and the CGS. Since they are appealing to the NCAA to allow one at 10 teams, clearly they do want that. 

 

Sure, if FOX and/or ESPN (we always seem to forget that ESPN has half of the Big 12 deal) is willing to guarantee no loss in per-team revenue by going to 12, AND the NCAA refuses to allow the Big 12 a title game unless they expand to 12, then the Big 12 will expand to 12. But IMO, FOX/ESPN  will only do that if the Big 12 adds teams that are worth $20 million per year. Who out there is worth that? FSU is, but they are unlikely to leave the ACC unless they have to, otherwise they would probably have already joined the Big 12. Likewise Notre Dame, on both counts.

 

But IMO it is wishful thinking that FOX/ESPN would value USF and UCF at that level of money. The contract that the Big East just signed puts our value at WAY below that. Not even in the same ballpark. So i don't see a path to the Power 5 for USF in all of this.

 

The way i see it, the only current and reasonable path to the Power 5 for USF goes something like this:

 

1) B1G successfully raids the ACC, taking Virginia and North Carolina*

2) SEC responds by taking NC State and Duke*

3) FSU, jilted by the SEC again, jumps to Big 12, Clemson does too.

 

4)  a rump ACC takes USF, Cincy, and UConn to backfill its losses.

 

Of course, at this point, the ACC, already the runt of the Power 5 litter, will be significantly reduced in power. Its TV contract will be re-adjusted downwards to reflect the loss of its biggest names. USF ends up in what amounts to something similar to various versions of the 1990s Big East, with Syracuse, Pitt, , Wake Forest, VT, Louisville, Miami, UConn, BC, Georgia Tech, and  Cincy. Who gets the 12th ACC slot? I don't know, probably not UCF though.

 

Of course, this will still be a FAR better conference, competitively and financially, then what we are facing right now.

 

* Arrangements are made so Duke and UNC can still play home/home every year in basketball.

Edited March 7, 2013 by BatonRougeBull87

[Goldenbuc]

Big 12 schedules would sellout many games at Ray Jay and BHNS.

[Bull Martin]

Big 12 schedules would sellout many games at Ray Jay and BHNS.

 

That helps no one in the current Big 12.  It's a positive after thought for them

[bull-71]

Am I grasping at straws when I think about  addition  bennefit  of Florida exposure and the big 12 comming down here to recruit fast runners to make up for northen bulk???

 

Would that not help the whole conference compete for a NC?????

[dabull80]

Am I grasping at straws when I think about  addition  bennefit  of Florida exposure and the big 12 comming down here to recruit fast runners to make up for northen bulk???

 

Would that not help the whole conference compete for a NC?????

 

Yes it would help recruiting but ultimately better teams in your conference and winning all your games will get you to the final four.  It is still all about the money and I still think Fox is looking closely at the inventory the expansion would bring and can they sell it to xyz dish/cable company.

[dabull80]

Way out of the ball park but I wonder if folks from ESPN or ABC or Fox etc ever come to message boards and look to see if there any fresh ideas on them

[Bull Martin]

Way out of the ball park but I wonder if folks from ESPN or ABC or Fox etc ever come to message boards and look to see if there any fresh ideas on them

 

 

I'd be surprised if ESPN even read through there own comment threads let alone digging through heaps of ******** on random team forums.

[jvwvu]

I do know NBC guys who follow message boards.

[South_Florida_Flip]

Big 12 schedules would sellout many games at Ray Jay and BHNS.

 

That helps no one in the current Big 12.  It's a positive after thought for them

 

It helps them greatly from a recruiting standpoint, especially programs like Iowa State, WVU, Kansas State and Kansas. You schedule league games to where those programs come to FL every year playing USF or UCF.

 

There are benefits to being in this state (TV sets and recruiting) and why the Big 12 WANTS to be in this state.

[JTrue]

 

OK thought...Does being the whipping boy with UCF in  the immediate future make any sense....on a big 12 invite..    The TV market..Rivalry...is in place   ....

 

Are we more likely to admitted to the Big 12 if we do not represent a serious threat of being conference champs or ruin Oklahoma's chance at a NC...

Could you translate that please?

Sorry...There is an existing structure --big 12 that has two openings...in our past we have been giant killers...Auburn, FSU etc...some things the home team did not expect..

 

The commmon thread on this blog has been the reluctance of big teams to schedule USF....to enhance our national standing...  In the past Oklahoma  has been a prominent team...

The question being this  We would be whipping boys right now with our existing 3-9 team history...

 

So the point i was convoluted getting to is  Do you think USF being weak right now enhances our chances  and  given with  our history as unexpected Giant killers could their be a certain ammount of reluctance.?

 

Kentucky in the SEC is like a scrimmage for the Alabama  and I would be surprised if they UPSET Alabama..USF is more of an unknown...

I was not aware that USF had made offers to big time teams only to be turned down. Do you know who we've attempted to schedule with that has been reluctant to sign on? Just curious.