Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[bcgruber]

2 hours ago, puc86 said:

Do you think at some point we are going to come up with the first reason that being independent would be significantly worse than being in the AAC, that is actually supported by data? Usually it’s we can’t go independent because x we then look up the data on it and it seems like at worst a push (I’m being generous in the spirit of harmony). So if going independent is a death nail because of all of these reasons and then we look at the reasons and it seems to be at worst exactly the same as it is in the AAC I think that means we all agree that the AAC is the death nail that I claim it is and we probably should do something about it.

IT would be really hard in basketball to go independent, much easier on the football side

[puc86]

Just now, bcgruber said:

IT would be really hard in basketball to go independent, much easier on the football side

Is there any reason that basketball can’t be Witchita state along with the other programs? Or rejoin the BEAST? Or find a more regional conference?

[NewEnglandBull]

13 minutes ago, puc86 said:

I do not have empirical evidence that it would work because spoiler alert there is no data for us as an independent in the current college football world , I do however have the evidence that being in the AAC does not work on any measure and that as a blended average of data from all the current independents of the reasons stated as to why being an independent would surely not work are at worst the same as what we have where we are. We can start over if you like or perhaps I can make a power point or faq you can click on when you wonder is being independent measurably worse than being in the AAC and you can once again learn that it is not on a single topic anyone has brought up thus far. 

Correct, the risks of going independent  are astronomical to the point that it could shut down the football and only a fool would take such a risk. We have a handful of independents right now and only two are worth a ****. They get smoked because no one wants to play games knowing they are going to get boat raced. Second, the long term projections with college realignment are terrible for independents as they are scrambling to get schedules with a strong possibility of finished Power games due to alliances and mergers. I would rather stay in a conference where I know if we win it we are almost automatic for a NYD game and/or a playoff (assuming move to 12). And why is that? Because the AAC is competitive from a national scale. We have had years where FIVE members were ranked in the top 35. That beats the hell out of the independent alternative. 

[NewEnglandBull]

7 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Is there any reason that basketball can’t be Witchita state along with the other programs? Or rejoin the BEAST? Or find a more regional conference?

You are comparing Wichita’s program with ours? . There is a reason why the AAC wanted them in the conference for basketball and I can assure you it’s because of an impressive following (check their attendance) and pretty decent history.  The BE contract pays $5/6 mil a year from FOX. Our basketball program is not worth $6 mil. Have you seen the other regional conferences near us? They are mostly one bid conferences. The WBB program (perhaps our most successful program on campus) would have to start over which I am sure Jose will not stay around for. Again, money talks and the bottom line is other than the Big12 scenario I stated earlier we are where we are. Of course if you are this adamant about it why don’t you do more than pontificate the issue on a message board, why don’t you send Mr. Kelly an email with this brilliant idea. Let me know what he says

Edited August 21, 2021 by NewEnglandBull

[puc86]

6 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Correct, the risks of going independent  are astronomical to the point that it could shut down the football and only a fool would take such a risk. We have a handful of independents right now and only two are worth a ****. They get smoked because no one wants to play games knowing they are going to get boat raced. Second, the long term projections with college realignment are terrible for independents as they are scrambling to get schedules with a strong possibility of finished Power games due to alliances and mergers. I would rather stay in a conference where I know if we win it we are almost automatic for a NYD game and/or a playoff (assuming move to 12). And why is that? Because the AAC is competitive from a national scale. We have had years where FIVE members were ranked in the top 35. That beats the hell out of the independent alternative. 

I hate to always be the contrarian but I’m this very last season didnt 4 out of 7 independent programs finish in the top 17?

[NewEnglandBull]

3 minutes ago, puc86 said:

I hate to always be the contrarian but I’m this very last season didnt 4 out of 7 independent programs finish in the top 17?

I count three…and are you really going to lump ND and BYU with the idea we can be like them?

[puc86]

9 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

You are comparing Wichita’s program with ours? . There is a reason why the AAC wanted them in the conference for basketball and I can assure you it’s because of an impressive following (check their attendance) and pretty decent history.  The BE contract pays $5/6 mil a year from FOX. Our basketball program is not worth $6 mil. Have you seen the other regional conferences near us? They are mostly one bid conferences. The WBB program (perhaps our most successful program on campus) would have to start over which I am sure Jose will not stay around for. 

It’s more to point to there being plenty of conferences that don’t even have football and even some that occasionally have football that have non football members so it’s not quite as if football  goes a different direction every other program will be left to die. 

[NewEnglandBull]

2 minutes ago, puc86 said:

It’s more to point to there being plenty of conferences that don’t even have football and even some that occasionally have football that have non football members so it’s not quite as if football  goes a different direction every other program will be left to die. 

Yes, and as much as I know you hate the AAC, these conferences are tiny with no tv contract and limited financial resources. Also, I suspect, if these schools do have FB it is on a FCS level. If it was not for Title 9, you could make a case to shut everything down except football, play independent, and put all resources into the program. 

[puc86]

5 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

I count three…and are you really going to lump ND and BYU with the idea we can be like them?

And that my friend is why you are struggling with the data. Is it your contention that having some good programs in the sample of all independents skus it so severally that you can only argue by removing them from the actual sample and thus only making it the still better 40% instead of 60%? Perhaps we should just add them to the AAC for violation and giggles to see if then it can win on its first comparable to independence. Everyone knows actual full samples are too skewed and the only way to not have manipulated data is to slice it the way that you would like to formulate you argument even if it still doesn’t work just keep slicing until you measure the fate of all independents by a single program that you picked because you thought it was performing at the same failure rate that we are currently at.

[puc86]

5 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Yes, and as much as I know you hate the AAC, these conferences are tiny with no tv contract and limited financial resources. Also, I suspect, if these schools do have FB it is on a FCS level. If it was not for Title 9, you could make a case to shut everything down except football, play independent, and put all resources into the program. 

You don’t make business decisions based on things you only do because you are legally required, you do what’s in your best interest and then do the bare minimum that is legally required