Maryland favored by 10

[feardabull]

Per vegasinsider.com

Edited September 1, 2014 by feardabull

[Bull Martin]

Take Marlyand

[BuckeyeBull9257]

They took care of business last week.  We didn't do as well.  I expected them to be favorites by at least 7 points.

[Sellular1]

Bulls +12 now

[flsportsfan83]

Safe bet at 30

[Superhippy]

This is one of those spreads I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. When I take a look at the slate of games and their spreads and I see one like this that looks blatantly obvious, I try to break down why Vegas made the line so low.  Low lines like this ussually means Vegas knows something that the general public doesn't.

 

Maryland

- 7-5 record last year.  5 wins were against teams with 4 wins or less (FIU, UConn, Virginia, NC State, West Virginia).  1 of their wins against a team with a winning record was against Old Dominion who played 7 FCS teams and 5 FBS teams.

 

- Blown out by a horrible Wake Forest Team.

 

- In their loses to Boston College and Syracuse they gave up about 260 rushing yards per game.  I used those 2 only because they are 2 of the only run focused teams they played and they struggled heavily with both.

 

- Struggled on the road against Uconn, Wake Forest, and NC State, all of which were very bad teams last year.

 

 

South Florida

 

- Marlon Mack.  Obviously his numbers were outstanding last week, but now heading into this week the Bulls can adjust the gameplan to make sure they feed him the football at the right time.  This COULD (key word) open up the passing game and if White or whoever the QB is at the time can actually throw some accurate passes, the offense could find a grove.

 

- Biggest home game (and hopefully) crowd the team will have had in a long time.

 

 

For those reasons I would not touch this game for the life of me.   For as rough as it looked at times last week, if Mack comes out and does half of what he did last week, and our QB can do better then 37 percent passing then it's going to be a close game.  If Maryland stuffs Mack though then this will be a blowout.  There's really no way to tell though.

 

I put almost no stock in the FCS games both teams played last week, other then Mack because it changes the way the Bulls offense will play.  Things shift so often in the FCS that for all we know Western Carolina will go 8-4 this year and James Madison will be 3-9.

[Superhippy]

Safe bet at 30

LMAO.  Please keep your money flsportsfan.  

 

MU MD 1st Downs 16 30 Total Yards 302 471 Passing 141 186 Rushing 161 285 Penalties 9-102 5-35 3rd Down Conversions 4-19 9-18 4th Down Conversions 3-4 2-2 Turnovers 3 1 Possession 26:10

33:50

 

C.J. Brown - 11/24 (45%) - 111 yards, 1 TD as well.  Maryland blew out James Madison mainly because they turnover it over alot and had over a 100 yards in penalties.   If WCU had that many penalties the score would have been something like 50 - 17.

 

I think the spread at 12 is actually just about right.  What ends up happening, who knows but I get why Vegas is there right now.

[feardabull]

This maryland team brings a lot back from last year. If CJ Brown can play with any sort of consistency, this wont be close. They are loaded at receiver (phil steele ranks them #1 in big ten) so dunkley, ward and co will need to step up. CJ Brown is also mobile so we cant lose contain on him.

The way to stop this team imo is to use this 3-4 system to disguise our blitz packages. Their rb corps is rated last in the conference. Brown is easily rattled so lets plant him to the ground and get in his head.

[Superhippy]

This maryland team brings a lot back from last year. If CJ Brown can play with any sort of consistency, this wont be close. They are loaded at receiver (phil steele ranks them #1 in big ten) so dunkley, ward and co will need to step up. CJ Brown is also mobile so we cant lose contain on him.

The way to stop this team imo is to use this 3-4 system to disguise our blitz packages. Their rb corps is rated last in the conference. Brown is easily rattled so lets plant him to the ground and get in his head.

Brown was the only other QB in the country last week to face an FCS team and look even close to as bad as Mike White did, which is ironic because they will be facing off next week. 

 

The only reason I would not be shocked if the Bulls somehow won next week is that USF is not a great matchup for Maryland on paper.

 

Maryland struggled to stop the rush last week against James Madison - 3.7 yards per carry / 161 total yards.

USF found a stud RB in Mack week 1.

 

Maryland did all of their damage on the ground last week - 285 yards - 5.7 yards per carry

USF stuffed Western Carolina's run game  - 80 yards - 2.9 per carry.

 

This is why the spread is only 12.  USF needs to use Mack often and correctly.  If they do that then the game will be extremely tight.  I have been watching my NY Jets for years do this.  Game after Game they are supposed to get destroyed yet by running the football effectively you shorten the game and when that happens things become dicey for the favorites.

[Rizman]

Maryland scores at least 38 on us, unless our defense changes.  I am hoping to god, that they were holding back stuff for the Maryland game.