The Geography of College Football

Looking at the article, "The Geography of College Football Fans (and Realignment Chaos)"

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

Assuming the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC all expand to 16 teams (4+3+2=> 9 slots remaining) who are the top teams that fit geographically and are not already members of said conferences? Note: Even if they poach each other there will be 9 new teams having to enter into the conferences overall.

1. Notre Dame (2.2m)

2. Missouri (1.08m)

3. WVU (959k)

4. Rutgers (937k)

5. Kansas (768k)

6. BYU (709k)

7. UConn (618k)

8. Iowa State (535k)

9. USF (520k)

Hence, by sheer fanbase size we appear to be squarely on the bubble of making it into some power conference. The difficult part to project will be who, if anyone, leapfrogs us, and can we leapfrog anyone ourselves. Specifically, I don't understand how Iowa State makes it into a super conference when all is said and done, they're just too close to us and don't present the potential we do. However, I can see a team like Kansas being a package deal with K-State.

Bottom line, if they all blow up to 16 teams it looks like someone will be forced to take someone they don't really want to. In this case, it looks like we may land on our feet.

K-State and Baylor are casulties of the Big 12. While Cincinnati and Louisville are casulties of the Big East. Can any of these 4 leap over any of the above? Or, can a couple get in if teams like Notre Dame and BYU decide to stay independent?

The only other options are currently non-AQ teams.

Basically, we have to hope that TX/TT/OU/OSU bolt to the PAC-16 and that the B1G, ACC, SEC all expand to 16 teams. There's not much reasonable way we get left out unless we cannot prove to be more valuable than teams like Baylor, Iowa State, or Cincinnati. If we can't prove that, we don't deserve an AQ label.

I really am not sure if this article made it to the front page, was moved because it is kind of a stretch but it ranks programs based on fan base.  It does mention that it isn't perfect but we ranked 53rd.  Doesn't sound great but we are ahead of: Cincy, Louisville, UCF, Boise State, TCU, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State, Utah, Stanford, Washington State, Kansas State, Baylor,  Wake Forest, NC State, Maryland, Vandy, and Northwestern.  I've been kind of poo poo'ing about realignment but if this data is even close to true, we might not be a conferences worst case scenario.

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nyt%2Frss%2FSports+%28NYT+%3E+Sports%29&seid=auto&smid=tw-nytimessports

We're 53rd, but we're ahead of many Pac-12 teams. That doesn't really factor into any expansion decision for us. I only counted 4 teams in the Big XII / Big East that are less popular than we are (Kansas St., Baylor, Cincinnati, Louisville).

http://thebullspen.com/index.php?topic=82179.0

Fortunately, if we get 4 super conferences that means we should make the cut unless one of those 4 gets in above us.

Funny you should post this. Here is the data for all of the schools. I think it's correct, but no guarantees...

Rank [glow=yellow,2,300]Conf[/glow]  # Fans    School

10 ACC 1,761,162 Clemson

11 ACC 1,664,088 GeorgiaTech

13 ACC 1,325,282 VirginiaTech

14 ACC 1,322,142 Miami (FL)

30 ACC   958,965 North Carolina

35 ACC   842,480 Boston Coll

36 ACC   835,574 Virginia

38 ACC   813,315 Florida St

51 ACC   536,303 Duke

58 ACC   474,059 Maryland

59 ACC   468,451 N.C. State

100 ACC   149,197 Wake Forest

29 B.E   959,403 WestVirginia

32 B.E   937,874 Rutgers

37 B.E   831,496 Pittsburgh

39 B.E   769,623 Syracuse

47 B.E   618,724 Connecticut

53 B.E   520,627 South Florida

70 B.E   322,757 Cincinnati

73 B.E   300,443 Louisville

  5 B12 2,250,310 Texas

  6 B12 2,030,188 Texas A&M

19 B12 1,201,587 Oklahoma

23 B12 1,084,889 Missouri

33 B12   911,787 TexasTech

40 B12   768,002 Kansas

41 B12   719,648 Oklahoma St.

52 B12   535,267 Iowa St

60 B12   427,668 Kansas St

85 B12   209,736 Baylor

  1 B-G 3,167,263 Ohio St

  2 B-G 2,921,066 Michigan

  3 B-G 2,642,275 Penn St.

12 B-G 1,441,955 Wisconsin

15 B-G 1,273,954 Iowa

18 B-G 1,230,558 Nebraska

20 B-G 1,145,819 Michigan St

27 B-G   965,087 Illinois

28 B-G   963,581 Minnesota

44 B-G   636,954 Indiana

46 B-G   624,944 Purdue

54 B-G   514,540 Northwestern

  4 Ind 2,261,730 Notre Dame

43 Ind   709,864 BYU

78 Ind   237,222 Navy

88 Ind   198,182 Army

57 M.W   483,409 Boise St

65 M.W   370,459 TCU

72 M.W   302,935 Wyoming

77 M.W   242,126 San Diego St

83 M.W   213,946 AirForce

87 M.W   199,506 Colorado St.

94 M.W   171,154 NewMexico

102 M.W   136,687 UNLV

81 MAC   226,483 Temple

84 MAC   213,393 Buffalo

89 MAC   197,930 Akron

98 MAC   162,687 Northern Illinois

104 MAC   121,071 Miami (OH)

106 MAC   117,010 Bowling Green

108 MAC   109,939 Toledo

109 MAC   107,504 Ohio

110 MAC   105,101 W. Michigan

113 MAC   71,049 Kent St

115 MAC   70,711 Ball St.

117 MAC   65,749 Cent. Michigan

118 MAC   65,133 East. Michigan

17 PAC 1,234,871 USC

25 PAC 1,043,283 UCLA

31 PAC   949,344 California

42 PAC   712,854 Washington

45 PAC   628,097 Oregon

48 PAC   606,499 Arizona St.

56 PAC   494,873 Colorado

61 PAC   406,435 Arizona

62 PAC   383,483 Oregon St

67 PAC   351,939 Utah

69 PAC   344,356 Stanford

75 PAC   284,718 Washington St.

63 S.B   381,102 Troy

71 S.B   312,058 Arkansas St.

86 S.B   202,188 North Texas

91 S.B   185,462 LA Monroe

93 S.B   178,669 Florida Intl.

95 S.B   169,621 Middle Tenn. St.

99 S.B   152,504 LA Lafayette

101 S.B   145,469 Florida Atlantic

114 S.B   70,821 Western Kentucky

  7 SEC 1,900,389 Auburn

  8 SEC 1,879,881 Alabama

  9 SEC 1,811,922 Florida

16 SEC 1,245,490 LSU

21 SEC 1,120,175 Tennessee

22 SEC 1,098,957 Georgia

24 SEC 1,067,499 South Carolina

26 SEC   990,859 Arkansas

34 SEC   907,666 Kentucky

49 SEC   602,288 Mississippi

50 SEC   550,779 Mississippi St.

64 SEC   379,975 Vanderbilt

55 USA   506,679 UCF

66 USA   361,613 Southern Miss

68 USA   348,391 East Carolina

79 USA   236,825 UAB

80 USA   235,656 Memphis

82 USA   225,810 Marshall

97 USA   163,671 SMU

103 USA   126,901 Rice

105 USA   119,686 Tulsa

107 USA   114,592 UTEP

111 USA   101,701 Tulane

112 USA   100,253 Houston

74 WAC   295,024 Hawaii

76 WAC   251,472 Fresno St

90 WAC   187,221 Nevada

92 WAC   179,991 La Tech

96 WAC   169,351 Idaho

116 WAC   70,427 New Mexico St.

119 WAC   65,129 Utah St.

120 WAC   60,292 SanJose St

[glow=yellow,2,300]Rank[/glow] Conf  # Fans    School

  1 B-G 3,167,263 Ohio St

  2 B-G 2,921,066 Michigan

  3 B-G 2,642,275 Penn St.

  4 Ind 2,261,730 Notre Dame

  5 B12 2,250,310 Texas

  6 B12 2,030,188 Texas A&M

  7 SEC 1,900,389 Auburn

  8 SEC 1,879,881 Alabama

  9 SEC 1,811,922 Florida

10 ACC 1,761,162 Clemson

11 ACC 1,664,088 GeorgiaTech

12 B-G 1,441,955 Wisconsin

13 ACC 1,325,282 VirginiaTech

14 ACC 1,322,142 Miami (FL)

15 B-G 1,273,954 Iowa

16 SEC 1,245,490 LSU

17 PAC 1,234,871 USC

18 B-G 1,230,558 Nebraska

19 B12 1,201,587 Oklahoma

20 B-G 1,145,819 Michigan St

21 SEC 1,120,175 Tennessee

22 SEC 1,098,957 Georgia

23 B12 1,084,889 Missouri

24 SEC 1,067,499 South Carolina

25 PAC 1,043,283 UCLA

26 SEC   990,859 Arkansas

27 B-G   965,087 Illinois

28 B-G   963,581 Minnesota

29 B.E   959,403 WestVirginia

30 ACC   958,965 North Carolina

31 PAC   949,344 California

32 B.E   937,874 Rutgers

33 B12   911,787 TexasTech

34 SEC   907,666 Kentucky

35 ACC   842,480 Boston Coll

36 ACC   835,574 Virginia

37 B.E   831,496 Pittsburgh

38 ACC   813,315 Florida St

39 B.E   769,623 Syracuse

40 B12   768,002 Kansas

41 B12   719,648 Oklahoma St.

42 PAC   712,854 Washington

43 Ind   709,864 BYU

44 B-G   636,954 Indiana

45 PAC   628,097 Oregon

46 B-G   624,944 Purdue

47 B.E   618,724 Connecticut

48 PAC   606,499 Arizona St.

49 SEC   602,288 Mississippi

50 SEC   550,779 Mississippi St.

51 ACC   536,303 Duke

52 B12   535,267 Iowa St

53 B.E   520,627 South Florida

54 B-G   514,540 Northwestern

55 USA   506,679 UCF

56 PAC   494,873 Colorado

57 M.W   483,409 Boise St

58 ACC   474,059 Maryland

59 ACC   468,451 N.C. State

60 B12   427,668 Kansas St

61 PAC   406,435 Arizona

62 PAC   383,483 Oregon St

63 S.B   381,102 Troy

64 SEC   379,975 Vanderbilt

65 M.W   370,459 TCU

66 USA   361,613 Southern Miss

67 PAC   351,939 Utah

68 USA   348,391 East Carolina

69 PAC   344,356 Stanford

70 B.E   322,757 Cincinnati

71 S.B   312,058 Arkansas St.

72 M.W   302,935 Wyoming

73 B.E   300,443 Louisville

74 WAC   295,024 Hawaii

75 PAC   284,718 Washington St.

76 WAC   251,472 Fresno St

77 M.W   242,126 San Diego St

78 Ind   237,222 Navy

79 USA   236,825 UAB

80 USA   235,656 Memphis

81 MAC   226,483 Temple

82 USA   225,810 Marshall

83 M.W   213,946 AirForce

84 MAC   213,393 Buffalo

85 B12   209,736 Baylor

86 S.B   202,188 North Texas

87 M.W   199,506 Colorado St.

88 Ind   198,182 Army

89 MAC   197,930 Akron

90 WAC   187,221 Nevada

91 S.B   185,462 LA Monroe

92 WAC   179,991 La Tech

93 S.B   178,669 Florida Intl.

94 M.W   171,154 NewMexico

95 S.B   169,621 Middle Tenn. St.

96 WAC   169,351 Idaho

97 USA   163,671 SMU

98 MAC   162,687 Northern Illinois

99 S.B   152,504 LA Lafayette

100 ACC   149,197 Wake Forest

101 S.B   145,469 Florida Atlantic

102 M.W   136,687 UNLV

103 USA   126,901 Rice

104 MAC   121,071 Miami (OH)

105 USA   119,686 Tulsa

106 MAC   117,010 Bowling Green

107 USA   114,592 UTEP

108 MAC   109,939 Toledo

109 MAC   107,504 Ohio

110 MAC   105,101 W. Michigan

111 USA   101,701 Tulane

112 USA   100,253 Houston

113 MAC   71,049 Kent St

114 S.B   70,821 Western Kentucky

115 MAC   70,711 Ball St.

116 WAC   70,427 New Mexico St.

117 MAC   65,749 Cent. Michigan

118 MAC   65,133 East. Michigan

119 WAC   65,129 Utah St.

120 WAC   60,292 SanJose St

Rank Conf  # Fans    [glow=yellow,2,300]School[/glow]

83 M.W   213,946 AirForce

89 MAC   197,930 Akron

  8 SEC 1,879,881 Alabama

61 PAC   406,435 Arizona

48 PAC   606,499 Arizona St.

26 SEC   990,859 Arkansas

71 S.B   312,058 Arkansas St.

88 Ind   198,182 Army

  7 SEC 1,900,389 Auburn

115 MAC   70,711 Ball St.

85 B12   209,736 Baylor

57 M.W   483,409 Boise St

35 ACC   842,480 Boston Coll

106 MAC   117,010 Bowling Green

84 MAC   213,393 Buffalo

43 Ind   709,864 BYU

31 PAC   949,344 California

117 MAC   65,749 Cent. Michigan

70 B.E   322,757 Cincinnati

10 ACC 1,761,162 Clemson

56 PAC   494,873 Colorado

87 M.W   199,506 Colorado St.

47 B.E   618,724 Connecticut

51 ACC   536,303 Duke

68 USA   348,391 East Carolina

118 MAC   65,133 East. Michigan

  9 SEC 1,811,922 Florida

101 S.B   145,469 Florida Atlantic

93 S.B   178,669 Florida Intl.

38 ACC   813,315 Florida St

76 WAC   251,472 Fresno St

22 SEC 1,098,957 Georgia

11 ACC 1,664,088 GeorgiaTech

74 WAC   295,024 Hawaii

112 USA   100,253 Houston

96 WAC   169,351 Idaho

27 B-G   965,087 Illinois

44 B-G   636,954 Indiana

15 B-G 1,273,954 Iowa

52 B12   535,267 Iowa St

40 B12   768,002 Kansas

60 B12   427,668 Kansas St

113 MAC   71,049 Kent St

34 SEC   907,666 Kentucky

99 S.B   152,504 LA Lafayette

91 S.B   185,462 LA Monroe

92 WAC   179,991 La Tech

73 B.E   300,443 Louisville

16 SEC 1,245,490 LSU

82 USA   225,810 Marshall

58 ACC   474,059 Maryland

80 USA   235,656 Memphis

14 ACC 1,322,142 Miami (FL)

104 MAC   121,071 Miami (OH)

  2 B-G 2,921,066 Michigan

20 B-G 1,145,819 Michigan St

95 S.B   169,621 Middle Tenn. St.

28 B-G   963,581 Minnesota

49 SEC   602,288 Mississippi

50 SEC   550,779 Mississippi St.

23 B12 1,084,889 Missouri

59 ACC   468,451 N.C. State

78 Ind   237,222 Navy

18 B-G 1,230,558 Nebraska

90 WAC   187,221 Nevada

116 WAC   70,427 New Mexico St.

94 M.W   171,154 NewMexico

30 ACC   958,965 North Carolina

86 S.B   202,188 North Texas

98 MAC   162,687 Northern Illinois

54 B-G   514,540 Northwestern

  4 Ind 2,261,730 Notre Dame

109 MAC   107,504 Ohio

  1 B-G 3,167,263 Ohio St

19 B12 1,201,587 Oklahoma

41 B12   719,648 Oklahoma St.

45 PAC   628,097 Oregon

62 PAC   383,483 Oregon St

  3 B-G 2,642,275 Penn St.

37 B.E   831,496 Pittsburgh

46 B-G   624,944 Purdue

103 USA   126,901 Rice

32 B.E   937,874 Rutgers

77 M.W   242,126 San Diego St

120 WAC   60,292 SanJose St

97 USA   163,671 SMU

24 SEC 1,067,499 South Carolina

53 B.E   520,627 South Florida

66 USA   361,613 Southern Miss

69 PAC   344,356 Stanford

39 B.E   769,623 Syracuse

65 M.W   370,459 TCU

81 MAC   226,483 Temple

21 SEC 1,120,175 Tennessee

  5 B12 2,250,310 Texas

  6 B12 2,030,188 Texas A&M

33 B12   911,787 TexasTech

108 MAC   109,939 Toledo

63 S.B   381,102 Troy

111 USA   101,701 Tulane

105 USA   119,686 Tulsa

79 USA   236,825 UAB

55 USA   506,679 UCF

25 PAC 1,043,283 UCLA

102 M.W   136,687 UNLV

17 PAC 1,234,871 USC

67 PAC   351,939 Utah

119 WAC   65,129 Utah St.

107 USA   114,592 UTEP

64 SEC   379,975 Vanderbilt

36 ACC   835,574 Virginia

13 ACC 1,325,282 VirginiaTech

110 MAC   105,101 W. Michigan

100 ACC   149,197 Wake Forest

42 PAC   712,854 Washington

75 PAC   284,718 Washington St.

114 S.B   70,821 Western Kentucky

29 B.E   959,403 WestVirginia

12 B-G 1,441,955 Wisconsin

72 M.W   302,935 Wyoming

Seems to match the data the NYTimes is working with.

Based on looking at the above, and projecting the Pac-16 expands as planned and that the 3 eastern super conferences come to fruition it seems we'd be included, or someone wildly unpopular will have to be taken.

I'd be curious to see how they came up with that data.

I'd be curious to see how they came up with that data.

Read the article

I haven't read the article yet, but I just don't see how Louisville becomes a casualty at all.  They have too much going for them and Tom Jurich is a hell of an AD, I don't think he'll let that happen. 

I haven't read the article yet, but I just don't see how Louisville becomes a casualty at all.  They have too much going for them and Tom Jurich is a hell of an AD, I don't think he'll let that happen. 

Louisville is assessed to be the least popular team in the league, and the academics are one of the least regarded in the league. If it's between USF and Louisville it may be a coin flip. I know their athletic department is one of the best in the league, but it may not make up for lack of a market or fans -- which is what this realignment is all about.

I'd be curious to see how they came up with that data.

Read the article

i somehow missed the link at the top when i looked at the post.

so basically, what i gather is they looked at google searches in specific tv markets and then within those markets relied on a survey of about 30,000 people over a few years?

well- I dont think i have ever googled anything about college football (i usually just go to sites i am already familiar with for info like this one, or yahoo sports, or espn, etc.)  and i surely wasn't involved in that small survey that they did.

i just find it hard to believe that UF is only 9th with 1.9 million "fans" or FSU ranking 38th with only 813,000.  the survey and study seems to have a little bit of a mid-west bias to it.

also think our number is actually kind of high.  i dont think we have 500,000 fans that follow college football and consider USF to be their #1 team.  however- i would venture to say we might be the fastest growing fanbase in the country and i hope conference take that into consideration.