10 replies to this topic

[outrunner]

USF swept Villanova in softball this past weekend, keeping us in the alive for the Big East regular season title.

The ladies head to Syracuse this weekend for the final 3 games of the regular season.

Here's the latest conference standings:

TEAM....Conference record :: Percentage :: Games Remaining

• LOUISVILLE...17-2 :: 0.895 :: 3 (@ St Johns)
• USF..........16-3 :: 0.842 :: 3 (@ Syracuse)
• NOTRE DAME...13-3 :: 0.813 :: 3 (@ Pitt) [3 games cancelled]
• SYRACUSE.....15-4 :: 0.789 :: 3 (v USF)
• DEPAUL.......12-7 :: 0.632 :: 3 (v Providence)
• ST JOHNS.....10-9 :: 0.526 :: 3 (v Louisville)
• Pitt......... 8-11 :: 0.421 :: 3 (v Notre Dame)
• Rutgers...... 9-13 :: 0.409 :: 0
• UConn........ 9-13 :: 0.409 :: 0
• Providence... 6-12 :: 0.333 :: 3 (@ DePaul) [1 game cancelled]
• Villanova.... 4-15 :: 0.211 :: 3 (v Seton Hall)
• Georgetown... 3-15 :: 0.167 :: 0 [4 games cancelled]
• Seton Hall... 2-17 :: 0.105 :: 3 (@ Villanova)

Top 8 make the Big East tournament at Notre Dame.
Win Percentage matters most in the standings, even when total conference games played are not equal.

USF can finish no worse than 4th place.
Louisville, USF. Notre Dame, Syracuse, DePaul and St Johns have all earned bids to the Big East Tournament.
Louisville, USF, and Notre Dame have secured higher seeds in the quarter-finals.
Only Louisville, USF, Notre Dame, and Syracuse have a chance to win the regular season title this weekend.

I'm working on all the scenarios and tie-breakers for those 4 teams and I'll post them below shortly.

[Rizman]

Come on ladies you can do it.

[charsibb]

Go Bulls!

Go Red Storm!!

[outrunner]

If all the games are played, then there are 64 scenarios possible.

USF will be outright champion:
[A] If Louisville loses 2 game to St Johns AND USF wins all 3 games against Syracuse
OR
[B] If Louisville loses all 3 games to St Johns AND USF wins 2 or 3 games against Syracuse


Statistical breakdown....

31 in 64 Louisville is outright champion
7 in 64 Notre Dame is outright champion
3 in 64 Syracuse is outright champions
11 in 64 USF is outright champion

7 in 64 co-champions between Louisville and USF
3 in 64 co-champions between Louisville and Syracuse
2 in 64 co-champions between Louisville, USF, and Syracuse

Louisville
43 in 64 they will be #1 seed
14 in 64 they will be #2 seed
7 in 64 they will be #3 seed
0 in 64 they will be #4 seed
43 in 64 shot they will be champion

Notre Dame
7 in 64 they will be #1 seed
14 in 64 they will be #2 seed
27 in 64 they will be #3 seed
16 in 64 they will be #4 seed
7 in 64 shot they will be champion

Syracuse
3 in 64 they will be #1 seed
18 in 64 they will be #2 seed
15 in 64 they will be #3 seed
28 in 64 they will be #4 seed
8 in 64 shot they will be champion

USF
11 in 64 they will be #1 seed
18 in 64 they will be #2 seed
15 in 64 they will be #3 seed
20 in 64 they will be #4 seed
20 in 64 shot they will be champion

Edited by outrunner, 30 April 2012 - 02:37 PM.

[outrunner]

Louisville-St Johns, Notre Dame-Pitt, and USF-Syracuse games are all played at 12:00 and 2:00 on Saturday.

The USF-Syracuse game is at 11am on Sunday, while Louisville-St Johns and Notre Dame-Pitt are at noon.

[Doc]

The only seed we'd really need to avoid is the 4-seed, as this would almost certainly have us playing DePaul in the first round (SJU unlikely to catch them). To avoid this, we'd have to win 2 of 3 at Syracuse or have ND completely fall apart to Pitt (not likely). Should we win the series in Syracuse, we'd be no worse than 3rd. Also, to pass UL for the 1-seed, a Cards' loss+rainout help us the same as 2 UL losses.

Outrunner, how do you have the UConn/RU tie-breaker going down? I read that the next tie-breaker is record vs top seed and down the line as in BBall, but the procedures didn't clearly define what constitutes an advantage (UConn has the better wins but not all are against common opponents). I would assume the rules are the same as in BBall, but here the number of games are so uneven that things get sloppy in a hurry.

[outrunner]

Outrunner, how do you have the UConn/RU tie-breaker going down? I read that the next tie-breaker is record vs top seed and down the line as in BBall, but the procedures didn't clearly define what constitutes an advantage (UConn has the better wins but not all are against common opponents). I would assume the rules are the same as in BBall, but here the number of games are so uneven that things get sloppy in a hurry.

I didn't do a tie-breaker for them, I was just dealing with the top 4, and even there I'm not 100% sure of the tie-breakers. You've got UL over USF 2-0, then the USF-SU series this weekend (3 games), but UL and SU didn't play, and then the ND series' will only matter in looking at 3rd tie-breakers. It's so confusing having teams with uneven number of games, plus not playing some teams while playing 2 games or 3 games versus others. Just too complicated. In my scenarios, I assumed UL would have the tiebreaker over SU, and assumed that in the 3-way tie it would go UL over SU over USF.
Wish it was like basketball where everyone played everyone.

[charsibb]

Just win, baby!

[Mama_Bull]

USA Today/NFCA Poll USF #16

http://www.usatoday....poll/53085432/1

[dabull80]

I think you rest Nevins and hope you don't get the 4 seed but even if you do she will be ready for the play-offs.

[smazza]

what is the secret of usf's softball success?

where does most of the talent come from?